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Geopolitical tensions and production declines in some countries will put pressure on the world oil market in the long run. Such a conclusion came from the Morgan Stanley Bank and significantly increased the price forecast for the Brent International standard for the second half of 2018 – immediately at $ 7.5, at $ 85 a barrel.
Last Brent traded at this level in October 2014, written RBC . The volatility in the global market will be fueled by macroeconomic instability, the risks of trade war between China and the European Union, as well as the resumption of unrest in Libya, analysts said the agency Platts. On Tuesday night, July 3, Brent futures were quoted at $ 77.26 per barrel, while the North American WTI benchmark was at $ 73.93. According to analysts Morgan Stanley, Martin Rats and Amy Sazent, the risks weighing on Iran's oil exports have steadily increased over the past week
during a scrum on June 26, the spokesman said. American US so that countries reduce Iranian oil imports to zero, and some of them have already confirmed their intention. " The United States seeks to restore Iranian oil deliveries to as many countries as possible and as quickly as possible.
The Bank also expects a drop in Iranian supplies in India and India. Other Asian countries, which can be partly offset by higher exports to China, in general Morgan Stanley estimates that Iranian production will increase from 3.8 million barrels in the second quarter to 2.7 million barrels. barrels in the fourth quarter of 2018 and up to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2019.
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