Geopolitical tensions and reduced production will raise oil prices – Morgan Stanley

Geopolitical tensions and production declines in some countries will put pressure on the world oil market for the foreseeable future.

Morgan Stanley Bank reached this conclusion and sharply increased the price forecast for the Brent international standard for the second half of 2018 – immediately to $ 7.5, at $ 85 per barrel.

Volatility in the global market will be fueled by macroeconomic instability, trade war risks between the US, China and the European Union , as well as by the reestablishment of unrest in Libya, according to analysts at the Platts pricing agency.Tuesday evening July 3, Brent futures were listed at $ 77.26 per barrel, while the WTI North benchmark -améric Ain was 73.93 dollars.

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Oil Export Risks p Iran Imports rose during the course of the year last week, writes in their review of Morgan Stanley analysts Martin Rats and Amy Sazent. At a press briefing on June 26, the spokesman for the US State Department said that Washington "would insist that countries reduce Iranian oil imports to zero, and some of them will not. between them have already confirmed their intention. " "Under these conditions, we believe that the transport of Iranian oil to the markets of Europe, Japan and South Korea will be really reduced to a minimum," – said Morgan. Stanley Now they represent about 1 million with 2.7 million barrels. Marine supplies Iranian oil daily, according to ClipperData. The bank is also expecting a drop in Iranian supplies in India and other Asian countries, which can be partly offset by an increase in exports to China. In general, Morgan Stanley estimates that Iranian production will grow by 3.8 million barrels. the second in the second day to 2.7 million barrels. the day in the fourth quarter of 2018 and up to 2.5 million barrels. per day in 2019.

The Bank also extensively revised its mining estimates in Libya and Angola. The political crisis in Libya has triggered a shipment of cargoes from export terminals in the eastern part of the country. Canada's marine shipments have more than doubled in the last two weeks to 0.4 million barrels. one day Morgan Stanley estimates that production will return to 0.8 million barrels. the day in the fourth quarter of 2018, but the risks of its reduction remain. The decline in shipments since Angola has again accelerated in June, and a shipping schedule for August indicates a further decline.

Support for global demand in the third quarter will complete the repair work in European refineries, as well as a summer holiday season, during which fuel prices are on the rise, says Platts. the prevalence, which will force countries with free capacity to increase production, stems from forecasts. This is what Saudi Arabia will do in its traditional role of "stabilizing supplier", that is, an exporter who controls a substantial market share and can, with a minimum of expense , increase or decrease the supply of the product

. the first half of 2018, from 10.1 million to 10.8 million barrels. one day In 2019, the figure will increase to 11 million barrels. per day

Projections for supplies from Russia, the UAE and Kuwait are also slightly revised upward.