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Russia tries to preserve its influence on Belarus
Over the last two weeks, the leaders of Belarus and the Russian Federation have been passionate. The first public conflict took place a week ago – Presidents of both countries, Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin, at the Eurasian Economic Forum, made unusual a public dispute over gas prices . After discussing the discrepancies in closed mode, Lukashenko admitted that the case had come to excuse each other.
The next episode has occurred over the past two days. On December 13, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of Brest openly declared that Russia insisted on the creation of a state of the Union and made concrete proposals for integration. deep of Belarus. It was to create a single issuing center, a single customs service, a court, the introduction of a single currency – the Russian ruble. Lukashenko was not ashamed of the statements of Moscow, describing the actions of the Russian Federation as an attempt to "text-text" data-body = "
Inclusion among its members, accession.
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TSN.ua discovered when the crisis in the relations between the two "fraternal peoples" began and what preconditions are inspired by the decisions of each of the parties.
Conspiracy and conspiracy
In recent months, in the circles of the Russian opposition forces, they are increasingly claiming that all current Kremlin policies are aimed at solving the problem of Putin's continued power after 2024 (until his second term). Three scenarios are possible to achieve this objective:
Suppression of the restriction of two consecutive terms . He predicted elections, but their result in power is not very worried: Putin's powerful rivals will be cut before the start of the election campaign, and the lack of competition and the possibility of correcting the vote will lead to a predictable result.
Transformation of the form of government into a parliamentary republic . In this case, the president becomes the third person – the "country cover" – and the leader-led government wins the party election (since 2003, the majority of votes has been won by "United Russia" of which the president is the current president of the Russian Federation.)
the state of Russia and Belarus . In this case, Putin could stay in power for at least 10 to 12 years after 2024.
"Currently, Medvedev wants a single court, customs and currency, then Parliament, it is already formally, but even more so: the only "president", – says in comments the opposition Nikolay Statkevich of Belarus.
But until all the above is nothing more than rumors and suppositions. The reality is that Russia is seeking above all to preserve the sphere of influence of this country, especially at the expense of already traditional methods for itself: blackmail and threats. But is Lukashenko really trapped?
Total figures
Statkevich refers mainly to the scale of Russian support, which was published in the report of the International Monetary Fund for 2016. There are really such numbers ( although Lukashenka and all reject ): The IMF estimated the overall support of the Belarusian economy by Russia to 106 billion USD for the period 2005-2015 (on average – 9.7 billion USD per year).
90% of the economic support granted by Belarus to Russia in the sense that the IMF understands, there are hidden subsidies for the supply of gas, oil and petroleum products.
Lukashenka, instead of reforms, kept a collective farm in the country
Instead of using this money for economic reforms, build In fact, Russia financed the lack of reforms, and now it has opened an account, it requires deep integration – that is, signed 19 years ago of the Allied State Treaty ", states Statkevich.
In his opinion, the Belarusian economy will not survive the rise in world oil prices. "They introduced their fiscal maneuvers, which resulted in the collapse of our economy.They said," Take the country, we have already paid for it. "The only way out is: it is necessary to carry out economic reforms and get some loans from the West," – says the opposition.
Fiscal Maneuvers
The "fiscal arena" in the Russian oil industry is to reduce to zero the export duties on oil and petroleum products by 2024 and to increase in parallel the tax on mining applied to the amount of reduced duties. The supply of Russian oil to Belarus is now devoid of a domestic price significantly lower than the world price, with an average decline of 25%.
According to Bilstat, in January and June this year, Belarus imported raw materials from Russia at a price of $ 377 per tonne ($ 50.4 per barrel). During the same period, the average price of Ural oil on the world market was $ 68.83 per barrel.
Ultimately, the fiscal maneuver will make oil prosper for Belarus in 2019, with the same adjustments and the same "fraternal relations" with the Russian Federation.
Lukashenko repeatedly tried to remedy the situation by filling the state budget, but in Russia, at first, he refused to accept that the Belarusian delegation discusses compensation for "tax maneuvers", after which Medvedev declared that this question could be discussed.
In addition, as noted above, the peak of the differences reached a critical point on the gas issue when Lukashenka asked Putin to lower the price of gas because Gas supply from his country "Worse than in Germany, even though Russia was the main economic partner of Belarus and that in general we fought against Germany". In turn, Putin said that if there were no benefits in Belarus, the price of gasoline would not be 129 dollars, and 200 dollars, as the other consumers, especially the same Germany.
Reuters [19659032] Highlight of exacerbation
However, the leader of the republic has shown patience: Lukashenko has expressed absolutely unprecedented things that no one s & # 39; He was waiting to hear from him, suspecting that Moscow "had tried" to attempt to join in.
Accession membership.
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Belarus into the Russian Federation" I understand these tricks: you will get oil, but destroy the country and join Russia. I always ask the question: for such reasons How will it look like in our country and in the international community? Do not wash clothes, so ride in the country will incorporate it in another country, "said Lukashenka, fearing.
This statement became a response to Medvedev's proposal "to strengthen the integration of Belarus into the Russian Federation … with the simultaneous increase in the interdependence of economies and the possibility of to provide assistance and support during the construction of the Union, solving various problems related to the integration … "19659003] However, the Kremlin rejected the issue of compensation of Belarus because of Russia's "tax maneuvers", which resulted in a loss of substantial revenue for its budget.
Video
Fears of Oleksa Dr. Lukashenko shared at a press conference for Russian journalists. He says he understands allusions to the destruction of the country and the accession of Russia in exchange for fuel. However, sovereignty will never be given. And he is scandalized by the rumor that Moscow allegedly feeds Minsk.
One can only guess at how much the current discovery of Lukashenka will affect the general course of the next bilateral talks and the fact that they take or not the Kremlin close to the heart But until the scheduled meeting between Lukashenko and Putin on December 25, no one has canceled.
Economists say
An expert and analyst of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Igor Tyshkevich says that current circumstances should be examined more broadly through the prism of Russia's attempts to maintain the control and influence over Belarus. especially since the latter is extremely dependent on the Russian market as a place of sale for its products.
On the other hand, Belarus is trying to attract a third force for eight years to counterbalance the influence of Russia. "This is the Ukrainian market (which is why Belarus did not move to Russia in 2014), and is actively involved in China: it is a" Great Stone "technopark, which attracts investment , cooperation in the field of the military-industrial complex, the processes really limit the influence of the Russian Federation, even on the economy of Belarus, "said the expert.
"In 2013, more than 87 per cent of Belarus' loan portfolio belonged to the Russian Ministry of Finance or the Eurasian Development Bank (a key role also played by the Russian Federation), and even in January 2017, the share of Russian loans had fallen to Thus, over three years, Belarus has refinanced its loan portfolio by significantly reducing its share in the Russian Federation ", – gives an example for Tichkevich.
At the same time, Russia itself has decided to build a nuclear power plant which should be inaugurated in late 2019. for this loan.
"Belarus electricity production is excessive, while most of the production capacity of Belarusian power plants is fed with Russian gas.If excess energy comes from nuclear power plants, it is obvious that they will produce less electricity from plants that operate at the expense of imported raw materials – the gas plant It is quite logical that Belarus, at the expense of that, saves Russian gas ", explains the expert.
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Tell me who you are, and I'll tell you who you are. Is this formula valid for foreign policy? Recently, Petro Poroshenko and Alexander Lukashenko have discovered them. One is the official enemy of Vladimir Putin. The other is a formal friend. What really happened at the top of Gomel, near the state border, is watching the plot.
With regard to the aforementioned "tax maneuvers", Russia tries to rid Belarus of the economy of customs duties on exports of Russian oil, which it receives as raw material for its products, comes out as follows: the difference in which Belarus buys oil and re-exports at world prices gives about $ 70 at auctions of each ton.
"This is the maximum amount, the actual figure is a little smaller.It is pumped by the Belarusian oil transportation system in Russia Transfers to the north and south corridors cost less than Transneft.Si pipelines you simply make the difference, regardless of the "fiscal maneuver", between world prices and the price of buying the Belarusian budget, this difference does not exceed $ 1.5 billion a year. Year after year.If the IMF estimates that total or direct subsidies at preferential energy prices reach some years 12-18% of GDP, it does not exceed 5% today, "note Tishkevich.
He adds that, the Belarusian economy is beginning to walk in the white The dependence on China on the one hand and on the other side departs from the exclusive role of the Russian Federation as the general state on which it depends. These processes are expanding and, given the fact that China proposes to Belarus to take part in the issuance of what is called "pandas-bonds", it is important is a debt denominated in yuan. ] analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future Igor Tyshkevych
"The credit rating of Belarus for China, according to the Chinese rating companies, 3A-, is high, but it will be a cheap and long currency, not more than 800 million, however, it is a nsuye computer 'tax maneuver', at least it will not affect the timing of payments on external debt Thus, the reduced growth rate, but some things like default – not "- says the expert
He also notes the important fact that today an open credit line with China for the creation of innovative companies in the amount of $ 15 billion – the amount is unprecedented.
It is important to understand that it is likely that the priority of Russia is to take control of key industries Belarusian economy, so that the arrival of China in Minsk does not not closed the door to the Russian Federation. It also affects the development of contacts between Belarus and the countries of the European Union. Russia is at least trying to use its influence to bring Belarus to progress towards convergence. In turn, in Minsk, they understand the danger of such a step.
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