Iowa Poll: Biden, Sanders and O 'Rourke on the ground, according to the first poll



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The new Iowa poll reveals that 32% of caucuses are likely to say that they choose Biden as first choice, 19% Sanders, 11% O 'Rourke, 8% of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 5 % of California Senator, Kamala Harris, with the rest of field tests of 20 people with support of less than 5%.

The top three Iowa candidates, including the third highest ranked O 'Rourke, correspond to the top three in a national poll released Friday by CNN. The first results at the national level are often motivated by name recognition, but in Iowa, the campaign is already underway, with several of the tested candidates having made multiple visits to the state and at least one having already visited the 99 counties of the state.

Iowa caucus enthusiasts, who have their first say on the identity of the party's candidate, claim to mostly look for a winner (54% want a candidate able to defeat Trump) for reasons of ideological purity (40% want one that shares their chances). positions on major issues). Those who give priority to a winning candidate are more likely to support Biden and O & Rourke than the overall group of true caucus followers (36% of this group say they are in favor of Biden, 14% Sanders, 14% O & Rourke), while Sanders surpasses his total among those seeking a candidate sharing their respective positions (30% Biden, 26% Sanders, 8% O 'Rourke).

Overall, Democrats are more likely to say that appointing an experienced political hand (49%) would be a better way to try to defeat Trump than to name a newcomer to life policy (36%). Senators (plus a member of Congress) in the field may reflect this preference. Political newcomers tested – businessmen Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang – did not get much support in the survey.

Most Iowa Democratic caucus voters say they prefer to see a group with many contenders (52 (%) rather than a race dominated by a strong candidate (41%), and the survey results suggest that they are ready to consider a large number of candidates.This contrasts with the mood of Democrats throughout the country, the majority of whom, after a fierce battle for the 2016 inaugural that lasted throughout of the primary season, hopes a fast rise of a favorite, according to the CNN poll.

Beyond the issue of horse racing, the study carried out in Iowa asked prospective faithful of the caucus if they could ever consider each of the candidates tested in the survey that they did not choose as a first- or second-choice candidate, or if they would never support that, the person – almost half (46%) likely participants in o caucus He stated that there would be no candidates in the field that they would never support. 12% said there would be only one candidate to exclude.

And many of those who have been tested in the investigation remain unknown even in the eyes of politically active caucus activists from Iowa. Majorities said they could not give an opinion on 12 of the 20 potential candidates when asked for a favor.

Of the best-known candidates in the field, four deserved the favorable opinion of a majority of potential members of minority groups – Biden (82%), Sanders (74%), Warren (64%) and O & # 39; Rourke (53%). ). Booker and Harris are not far behind with 49% of them judging them to be in favor and former Attorney General Eric Holder has also exceeded 40% favorability, reaching 42% in the poll.

Although the incumbent does not record much support as a first or second choice – only 1% say that they would place him or her in the top two at the moment – 50% say that they would never consider replacing him with a president, a figure higher than anyone who ranks as far as the first -choice scale. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is also close, with 48% of respondents saying she would consider it, although her favorability index is just under 35%.

What the Democrats of Iowa seem convinced, is that they do not want to see another Hillary Clinton run. Nearly three quarters say that if she ran in the race, she would remedy it (72% say so), and her favorability score is very slightly reversed, with 49% having an unfavorable opinion compared to 47%. view.

Two other people who flirted with the presidential elections are also considered more likely to hurt the race than to add: Oprah Winfrey (55% said she would do more to hurt than add) and Howard Schultz (55%). The opinions on Michelle Obama, however, go strongly in the opposite direction. Three-quarters say she would add to the presidential race if she put her hat on the ring (76%), while only 22% said she would deprive her.

The CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom survey was conducted by Selzer and Co., from December 10 to 13, on a random sample of 455 Democrat caucus viewers likely to be reached on landlines or mobile phones by an interviewer live. The results for the sample of likely caucus visitors have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, it is greater for subgroups.
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