Mitch McConnell worried about production shutdowns. Now he does not listen anymore than Trump.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is not in favor of closures by the government.

"Do you remember me? I am the guy who pulls us out of business, "he said in an interview for CNN in 2014." It's a failed policy. "

" Leave me alone " specify: there will be no closure of the government, "he repeated later in the year.

And yet, we are there.

While McConnell unanimously voted the Senate to fund the government in December, Trump changed his mind, threatening a veto that pushed the government into the current stalemate.

"Now that the president has put the Republicans in a difficult situation, McConnell is doing his best to protect them from the fallout of the closure," said Josh Huder, senior researcher at Georgetown's Government Affairs Institute, who had Hill. "Basically, McConnell will not play the offensive because he's busy defending."

As the general outcry over the partial closure of the system ceased to grow, McConnell simply turned his attention to Trump, as did Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. and the Senate. Leader of the Chuck Schumer minority. By keeping Senate Republicans largely out of the in camera discussion, McConnell makes sure they escape blame.

"In the end, the solution is an agreement between the president, Nancy and Chuck, because we need some votes from Chuck and, of course, we need Nancy's support," McConnell told CNN "I have not been ruled out …. It's just that I do not have a particular role when you have this setup."

McConnell's decision to let Trump take the lead (at least publicly) closing talks may seem like a passive gesture, but it is also strategic. a solution that has allowed Senate Republicans to break out of this relatively free impasse

A Politico / Morning Consult survey this week revealed that Trump was assuming the lion's share of responsibility, with 49% of respondents holding him accountable and only 4% blame the Republicans of Congress.

McConnell is not exactly a natural counterpart to Trump – he called their differences "obvious" – but he certainly has a role to play in this government shutdown, the longest in US history. United. This dynamic put him in an awkward position.

As McConnell admitted to Charles Homans of The New York Times: "I am puzzled as to how this ends."

How we got here

To try to avoid this situation, McConnell got the Senate unanimously. pass a bill on short-term spending that did not include wall money last December.

"We had already taken this path and I do not think we will do it again," McConnell told the press at the time, according to Washington Post's Erica Werner and David Weigel. They continued:

But McConnell is dealing with an unreliable partner in the White House. The week before Christmas, McConnell urged the Senate to unanimously pass a short-term spending bill that would have kept the government open until early February, without giving Trump $ 5 billion that he wanted for the wall that he had repeatedly repeated in Mexico.

McConnell did this knowing that Trump would support the bill, the Allies said. But the president abruptly changed course the next morning under intense pressure from the Conservatives. The House never accepted the Senate bill, but rather passed a bill to keep the government open and fund the Trump Wall. The bill had no chance in the Senate.

When, unexpectedly, Trump refused to sign the clean spending bill after being pressured by Conservative MPs Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows, it was clear that he had left McConnell at the table. dry.

The overthrow of Trump left McConnell in trouble to maintain his alignment with the president and to support a stop that did not really want him.

"He was burned by Trump and he does not want to be anymore," said Jim Manley, former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.

McConnell scheduled a series of Senate votes on Thursday on two proposals, one from Trump, and one from Democrats. We expect both to fail.

The generous reading is that it is finally doing something about the closing; the most cynical is that he will show the world that both sides have an untenable position, forcing Democrats to give up their position of "vote without vote".

#WheresMitch: McConnell kept a very low profile

McConnell's low profile during negotiations to stop negotiations was so noticeable that he became a bit scathing.

"The idea that McConnell is showing leadership here is an absolute joke. He has been and continues to be MIA, "said Manley. "The last time I checked, Congress was a part of the government with equal powers and had a lot to say about federal spending."

At a press conference at Rose Garden in early January, McConnell's absence in the debate was particularly striking. Although he attended a meeting at the White House with Trump alongside other congressional leaders, McConnell left early and did not attend the press conference, which his associates later said that he would have stayed there had he known.

A few weeks ago Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), a rising Democratic star, also asked about McConnell's involvement, launching a campaign in social media by asking significantly to #WheresMitch .

Ocasio-Cortez and other first-term representatives, including Lauren Underwood (D-IL) and Katie Hill (D-CA) sought to physically find McConnell on Capitol Hill and confront him about his inaction facing the closing. When they were unable to find him, Ocasio-Cortez documented much of the search on Twitter.

This hashtag has lived all its life ever since.

Until this week, McConnell categorically refused to consider anything like this. the spending bills passed by the House to reopen the government, stating that no one had the necessary support from the president.

"If the president refuses to sign something, it makes no sense to try to propose it, is not it? "A spokesman for McConnell said about the reason for being the leader of the Senate.

Crossing Trump could have major consequences on Republicans

The refusal to McConnell's letting Senate Republicans cross Trump underscores the consequences for Republicans if they break up with the president.

Part of the vulnerable Republican Senate that is to be re-elected in 2020 – detectives Cory Gardner (CO) and Susan Collins (ME) – could feel the heat, but it is in the interest of the interest Republicans to stay with the president, who is still very popular in many states controlled by the GOP.

A solicitation of more than 40 senators and Republican assistants by the Washington Post's Seung Min Kim and Sean Sullivan revealed that most of them were united in their support of Trump.

Not only would a public break with Trump increase the threat of a major challenge in 2020 for various Republican senators, but it would also defeat the real positions of many Republicans on the issue of border security.

After all, while many of them may not be enthusiastic about a wall, the majority of Republicans have long called for more aggressive border security measures. and are technically on the same footing as the president on this subject.

Although Americans can generally oppose closure, Republican support for the wall has actually hardened in recent months.

The concern over the primary challengers of 2020 worries many Republicans, including McConnell, who will have to be re-elected in the next round. Although McConnell is not particularly popular in Kentucky (his approval rate is 38%), political experts do not see any particular risk for him. Trump's approval in the state, however, was more than 15 percentage points higher in December 2018.

Thursday's next vote could give McConnell a way to encourage the market closure movement

The results of Thursday's votes will send a message to Trump and the Democrats.

If Trump's proposal fails, as expected, this vote will show the President that he does not have enough support to fully support his request. If the Democratic option fails, as can be expected, it would send a message that Democrats should give something to Trump.

McConnell knows there are no figures for Democrats' bills, so he ignored them, said Trey Grayson, a former Kentucky secretary of state and long-time ally. . Although many Republicans backed a clean spending bill last December, the president's veto threat completely changed their calculation.

Thursday's votes are a classic incarnation of what Vox's Dylan Scott has noted is McConnell's strategy of "showing their bodies" – or an effort to take votes that are doomed to the same thing. failure – which will not necessarily end the blockage, but may help stimulate a new movement around him.

"It seems to me that he took a notebook from former members of the House such as Boehner and Ryan, calling for a vote, knowing that the two will fail to show all the people implied that the votes are not there and that we need another plan. , "Said Manley of Thursday's votes.