[ad_1]
Despite various sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten the entire world with a war. Experts say that it will cause the situation in the coming months of the presidential election in Ukraine.
Which Ukrainian cities were threatened and which could put an end to the Kremlin's aggression policy – in an interview with OBOZREVATEL by a former adviser to the Russian president The economist Andriy Illarionov.
– Why, instead of reconciliation with Ukraine and with the international community, Putin only makes the situation worse?
– First of all, it reflects his personal character and, secondly, his rational calculation, derived from the concept of persistent escalating rates. He hopes that Western leaders are not psychologically able to withstand the race for higher rates.
Now, Putin has established the highest rate – the possibility of using nuclear weapons
He has approached this idea several times. Recently, he reiterated his desire to send his fellow citizens to paradise. From his point of view, no Western leader is ready for such an approach.
That is why, having already adopted an unacceptable position for Western leaders, he continues his campaign of escalation. believes that he will be the winner of such a psychological fight. It must be admitted that this tactic has often paid off. For example, during the Russo-Georgian war, Putin's escalation began, Western leaders spoke a little about it and three months later, they returned to their usual activities. The reaction to the annexation of Crimea and the war against Donbass was almost the same. And during the annexation of Russia by the Kerch Strait from the west, there was no reaction, no statement. This approach gives Putin a clear advantage in his relations with the West.
After perfectly mastering this tactic, he constantly raises rates. In the Kerch Strait, the Russian side has violated all possible and impossible legal norms – international law as well as Russian law, including a whole set of the Penal Code – on the state border, on the border of the Czech Republic. misuse of weapons, on the preparation and implementation of the aggression. Despite this list of violations, Putin tries to translate the situation into another register and put his victims in a state of justification. This will happen until opponents adopt a more persuasive language.
– Who are you talking about?
– As long as Western leaders do not embark on a policy of appeasement, one who applies harsh measures will prevail. As soon as the opponents move on to a real defense, the situation changes. When the Syrian company was created, Russian planes regularly violated Turkey's airspace. However, violations of the Turkish airspace were halted as soon as the Turks shot down the Russian fighter Su-24 in November 2015.
How many cases of dangerous convergence of Russian aircraft with airplanes NATO have been the last eight years of Obama? Dozens As soon as Tramp issued an order, two years ago, according to which the US military would have the right to open fire independently, on the basis of the situation on the ground, no more requests from higher authorities, the number of violations has significantly decreased. And after the defeat of the WCG group Wagner in February this year, which was about to remove the Kurdish oil plant, all the violations stopped like a magic wand.
– And now, Ukraine is defending itself again, it is not ready?
– On December 5, the Atlantic Council in Washington examined the situation in the Sea of Azov and the battle in the Kerch Strait. This panel was used by former US ambassadors in Ukraine, Poland, Russia and by Philip Bradwall, former commander of NATO troops in Europe. It was one of the most prominent groups in Washington.
The group members spoke a language that never sounded before in Washington. That Putin provoked a provocation in the Kerch Strait to have the reason for an attack on Ukraine. What he wants to open the land bridge to the Crimea and during such an operation to capture Mariupol, Berdyansk, Tavriysk, Kakhovka. What measures are needed to counter the aggression? The Americans publicly discussed the formation of the Black Sea flotilla in the Black Sea with the participation of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, as well as the rotation of the indigenous ships of the countries. not belonging to the Black Sea. Began to discuss the closure of the canal of Russian warships – both Black Sea and Baltic North.
When was it possible to hear? These are the opinions of high level and experienced experts with close links in the current administration. They listen to their thoughts. Until December 5, it was impossible to hear anything like that. This means that there has been a qualitative breakthrough, a transition to a completely different language. This is not an offer from the series "Let's add one or twenty other sanctions to these sanctions and another hundred to the first hundred of the blacklist". The United States will discuss decisions that have not yet been considered.
– Many experts have recently stated that a major war is inevitable. Putin is actively preparing for it and if Ukraine does not choose loyal politicians in the next elections – it will attack
– An attack on Ukrainian ships showed that there had been a qualitative change in Putin's behavior. He no longer hides the actions of his regular troops in the guise of tractor drivers, miners and other green men. An open use of the Russian armed forces took place. Several dozens of Russian tactical groups participated in Il & # 39; oyashi, but this one was hidden. The fact that Russian artillery fired on Ukrainian troops along the border is a known fact, but the West did not want to see it.
The battle in the Kerch Strait reversed the trend and deprived Western leaders blind
They find that Putin no longer tries to conceal the use of its armed forces. The audio and video documents broadcast are, moreover, documents that can be used by the war crimes tribunal. The fact that Putin has stopped hiding his aggressive actions shows that he has no more restrictions. Therefore, an open operation on a large scale is possible.
Ukrainian intelligence services say that 80,000 Russian troops are concentrated on the Russian-Ukrainian border. In 2014, the maximum number of Russian troops along the border did not exceed 50,000. Now almost twice as many. In addition, Putin has thrown more than 120 ships from the Caspian flotilla, northern fleets and the Baltic Sea into the Azov Sea. Many of them are landing. An amphibious fleet is necessary not to patrol the border and not to inspect the merchant ships, it is intended for the withdrawal of troops and equipment.
A new floating armored personnel carrier appeared in Russian troops, who were not even in the Soviet Army. Why There are constant maneuvers in the Baltic, the Caspian Sea, in Crimea, in which the problem of landing troops and military equipment on an unprotected coast. Why?
Recently, a message was sent regarding the placement of S-400 in Dzhankoy. This state-of-the-art air defense equipment is located in the northern part of Crimea. Russian media have published articles on the crisis of water in Crimea and the need to establish a control of the force on the chain of the North Crimea
A few days ago, the situation in Crimea began to comment on Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev. He is known to have created illegal armed formations in Transnistria, Ajaria and South Ossetia. He was later seen in Crimea and Donbass. He now talks about the situation in northern Crimea and says that "Ukrainian armored vehicles are preparing for a march towards Simferopol". All this reminds us of the suffering that occurred in South Ossetia in the summer of 2008 on the eve of Russia's aggression against Georgia.
– Experts say that the most favorable period for the assault on Putin is the inauguration of a new president in Ukraine.
– In the window of opportunity conducive to aggression, there are starting points and arrival points. The starting point was apparently the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires, the last major international meeting at which Putin had been invited to attend and who was to meet Trump. After that, major international events with Putin's participation might not be very long.
Regarding the point of arrival, water experts say that the water accumulated in the Crimean waters could end. until July 19th year. In addition, there is still a certain cyclical climate: after seven years in previous years, the next year is an arid seven-year period. In 2014, the Crimea Nord Canal provided 85% of the peninsula's water needs. If water does not exist, Crimea in its current form is doomed. Water supply specialists say that the current water supply is enough to sustain life in Crimea, or 1 million people. Today, Crimea has 2.4 million inhabitants. Even basic military model proposed by Putin does not work
The failure of a favorite toy, offered so nicely to Russian society, is absolutely impossible for Putin. So we have to somehow ensure the reception of water. In case of desalination of seawater, it will take about 13 billion euros. This is a huge sum, about 7 times higher than the annual grants awarded in Crimea. But for desalination, there is still a lot of electricity that is not enough.
There remains only the only way – to restore the water supply of the Dnieper, for which it is necessary to persuade the Ukrainians. If they are not "persuaded", all that remains is to establish a control of force on the North Crimean Canal, behind the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, behind the Kakhovka Reservoir, on the culverts and on the dam that blocked it the fourteenth year.
Distance to Perekop in Tavriyska – 78 km, one hour drive. The area is absolutely flat, it's a steppe where there are no significant obstacles – no big rivers, no mountains nor big cities. There are several villages and nothing else.
The population is small – this is not half a million mariupol, no more than 100 thousandths of Berdyansk. According to official figures, 320,000 people live in six districts of the southern Kherson region (Kakhovka, Oleshkovsky, Kalanchatsky, Chaplinsky, Skadovsk, Golopristansky) and Nova Kakhovka. And in reality, maybe less. With the size of the group for an invasion of 80,000 people, capturing, occupying and maintaining such a beachhead is a real challenge.
Is it possible that a military operation will seize the left and south bank of Ukraine, or that the Ukrainian and Russian military forces will collide directly and if the NATO can use the actual help of Ukraine – read the second part of the interview in the coming days.
Read all the "Russian News" on OBOZREVATEL.
[ad_2]
Source link
