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Continued from below [19659006] Mason-Dixon's pollster, Brad Coker, said the investigation is bad news for a Democrat who needs solid Hispanic support. ort to the statewide. Echoing criticism from Democratic consultants and Latin American activists, Coker said Nelson was responsible for not taking care of this growing constituency during his three terms.
"This is typical Nelson," Coker said. "He's going to Washington and he's blending more or less in five years, you do not hear much from him, and then he's back a year or a year and a half before the election, and he's starting to get his coalition together." could draw from it because he had historically weak adversaries.Not now. "
The survey follows a poll last month that showed Puerto Rican voters in Florida knew and liked Scott better than Nelson – with a margin of 21 percentage points – even though 57% of the sample was Democrat. Earlier in June, POLITICO reported that the Democrats were nervous about Nelson's Latin American outreach and were concerned that the focus groups showed that Scott was relatively better known and loved by Puerto Ricans in Orlando. , largely because he was hosting the Hurricane Maria evacuated to Florida.
Nelson's campaign launched digital advertisements in Spanish and hires more staff for Hispanic outreach. Meanwhile, the wealthy independent Scott covers the airwaves in English and Spanish, including a Spanish commercial that ran on Telemundo during the World Cup.
Coker said that he could not extrapolate the results of his regional survey of 1,000 Hispanic voters to the wider race of the state, but noted that recent polls at the scale from the state show Scott in the lead and do not believe that surveys show Nelson in advance. Yet with Florida's history of thin elections, many expect the race between Nelson and Scott to be a roar.
About half of the 2 million Hispanic voters live in Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties in southeastern Florida. Overall, Hispanics accounted for 16% of active registered voters in Florida in 2016.
It is unclear exactly how many Hispanic voters in Florida are Cuban Americans, how many are Puerto Ricans and how many are there? Hispanics have their roots in other islands or countries. Yet experts estimate that about one-third of Latino voters in Florida are Cuban-American and another third are Puerto Rican in origin. The rest comes from all over Latin America.
As the Puerto Rican community of Central Florida has developed, the Democrats hope that it will become a counterweight to Republican-leaning Cuban Americans in South Florida. But Cuban-Americans in Florida tend to vote at much higher rates than Puerto Rican or non-Cuban voters.
In the Mason-Dixon survey, 54% of the sample was Cuban-American and 46% non-Cuban American. About 35% of the sample was democratic; 32 percent was Republican and 33 percent were independent.
The Bottom Line: Scott is on the point where he has to be with Hispanic voters in South Florida and Nelson is not right now, according to Coker. Scott leads Nelson 58 percent to 30 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Nelson passes Scott from 50 to 22%, with 28% undecided.
Cuban-Americans also break with non-Cubans to support President Donald Trump's immigration policy. From 52% to 37%, Cuban-Americans support Trump on immigration, but non-Cubans oppose it, from 69% to 17%. The two subsets of Hispanic voters, however, support the so-called sanctuary cities that protect undocumented immigrants from deportation by 54% to 29%. And from 87% to 4%, Hispanic voters in South Florida want the so-called DACA policy extended to protect illegal immigrant youth from deportation. Trump says he's expecting Democrats and Scott to increasingly tie the governor to Trump, who has encouraged Scott to run for the Senate and for which Scott has raised money during the race to the 2016 presidential election. Not only are many Hispanic voters being turned off by Trump's politics and rhetoric, the Puerto Ricans strongly disapprove of the president for his management of disaster relief on the island.
But, said Coker, Nelson will have to start doing more outreach. quickly because he has never faced an opponent like Scott.
"Nelson has an opponent with more money than him, he has an opponent with a lot of name recognition, and he has an opponent coming in and attacking his base and going well right here" said Coker. "Nelson is jostling and playing catch-up."
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