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Anna Romanash
The EU's response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine should be bold and unanimous, writes the British newspaper The Guardian. Reuters discusses the possible damage of the Ukrainian economy caused by the Nord Stream 2 and explains how the West reacts to this project. And the Atlantic Council analyzes why pro-Russian candidates will not receive significant support during the presidential election in Ukraine in 2019.
Europeans were naive over Russia's actions in Ukraine, convinced the president of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the German Bundestag by Norbert Rutten in the article for the British newspaper The Guardian .
According to the politician, the EU was not prepared for the events of 2014 as it was before the events of November 25, 2018.
Rutten notes that the aggression Russian – the result of weakness in the interior of the country. In particular, Russia has not been able to modernize and its economic development is far behind the EU. In addition, Vladimir Putin's ranking dropped but he feared a loss of influence on the world stage.
"Russia is angry and is trying to put an end to its decline by using the last means at its disposal: the military force and the control of access to Energy," Ratten adds.
According to the politician, a coherent and rigid response from the EU to Russia's policy in the region is needed. Firstly, we must insist on the release of detained Ukrainian seamen, as well as on the respect of the Minsk agreements. Then, Germany should reconsider its attitude towards the North Stream 2 project, the Russian gas pipeline that bypasses Ukraine, which has "geopolitical consequences". The least we can do is to guarantee the transit of gas via Ukraine.
The politician also demands that Russia be forced to work in accordance with the energy and gas laws applicable to EU companies. Rutteng is convinced that the EU must act in concert to respond to Russia's policy in Ukraine and beyond, as well as to apply all possible methods, other than military methods, to ensure that Russia does not does not have the necessary powers to do so, and Germany does not support regulation in this regard.
to stabilize the situation in Europe.
"President Putin wants Russia to oppose the Western liberal order, the destabilization of other countries and societies has become the fundamental principle of its foreign policy," writes the politician.
He concludes: "The EU must maintain dialogue with Russia, otherwise peace will not reign in Ukraine.When we deal with Putin, we need strategic patience and, as far as possible, we need identification of common interests. "
Europe is unlikely to force Russia to continue gas transit through Ukraine, writes an international news agency Reuters . The agency refers to the US Secretary of State for Energy Resources Francis Fennon who speaks of the threat posed by North Stream 2.
The new project is likely to deprive the US of Ukraine's important role of the transit country. Currently, most of the Russian gas is routed to Europe via Ukraine, which accounts for up to 3% of GDP in transit.
According to Fennon, Russia's actions in the Kerch Strait indicate that it is impossible to trust him. According to him, the reduction potential of the gas pipeline through Ukraine will affect not only the infrastructure, but also the energy security of the entire region.
Germany has announced Putin's promise to continue its gas supplies via Ukraine.
"It's a problem because you trust Russia because it will not block gas," Fennon reacted to the German party's position. According to the official, the launch of North Stream-2 will stop gas supply in Ukraine and will bring about its economic decline.
He adds: "For us, the continued transit of gas, even in modest quantities [через Україну] is not a real proposition." [19659018[Professor Taraz Kuzio analyzes the chances of pro-Russian candidates in the presidential election of 2019 in an article of the American think tank Atlantic Council .
According to the researcher, Ukraine has changed dramatically since the Russian intervention of 2014., from which prorosion These candidates have not only lost a lot of support, but also chances to win political positions influential.
Four factors prevent pro-Russian candidates from realizing their dream of election success. Firstly, it is the loss by Ukraine of the territories most favored by these political forces – Donbass and Crimea. According to Kuzya, the only chance for a pro-Russian candidate is to unite with another competitor with a more Western orientation and broader support. But "it will not happen", he is certain.
Second, in the pro-Russian leadership, there are serious conflicts between different political groups, as well as the absence of a presidential candidate. The researcher thinks that the number of rioting and opposing currents in the election could increase even more.
Third, even within smaller groups, there is no consensus. Yuriy Boyko, who was the most popular pro-Russian candidate, fell to fifth place in the electoral rankings because of clashes with his party colleagues. Fourthly, the association with Viktor Medvedchuk and Russia can be fatal for politicians in a country where 80% of the population accuses Russian leaders of leading the war to the East and to the sea events of # 39; Azov.
According to the researcher, the pro-Russian forces do not differ ideologically, although they go to the elections separately. In recent years they have distinguished themselves by voting against all reforms, as well as against the introduction of martial law.
"In 2019, a second election will take place when pro-Russian forces will have low electoral chances as a direct result of Putin's military aggression," writes Kuzio.
Therefore, Western politicians should rethink their perception of Ukraine as divided between "pro-Western" and "pro-Russian" forces, he said.
"In Ukraine, the trajectory of the movement is aimed at the West, whether the future president is a reformer or not, or a populist," the author concludes.
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