The decline in the hryvnia rate in July was situational,

<img class = "article-content-image" src = "https://interfax.com.ua/media/images/2018/07/Bogdan_Danylyshyn.jpg" alt = "Bohdan Danylyshyn, Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), considers the situational decline of the hryvnia exchange rate in July

"Lowering the hryvnia exchange rate to the US dollar by 2.2%, which was observed in July, s & # Is produced under the influence of factors that are more likely to be situational in nature, the force of influence that will weaken gradually in the near future, "he writes on his page in the social network Facebook

. as the central banks of the world since the end of 2017 For example, the US Federal Reserve has raised the basic interest rate several times since the end of last year, placing it between 1.75 and 2 % per year. This caused capital outflows from emerging markets as the attraction of capital became more expensive, and this capital moved mainly to the United States and Japan. "The situation has weighed on the budgets and currencies of developing countries and, as a result, it has affected the price of the national currency of Ukraine – in the summer, the volatility of the hryvnia with a tendency to decrease the rate has increased, "said B. Danilishin. capital with a corresponding decline in the national exchange rate is a common trend for developing countries. In particular, the historical minimum of the Turkish lira against the US dollar (4.9 lire per dollar) has recently been recorded. Also updated the historical minimum rate of the Argentine peso to the US dollar (25.5 pesos for a dollar). In general, since the beginning of 2018, the national currencies of Turkey and Argentina have lost respectively 16.5% and 25% US.

At the same time, the influence of the Fed's interest rate is gradually decreasing. And given that US GDP growth of 4% in the second quarter is expected to dampen economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the likelihood of further raising the Fed rate from one to two months in the future will be slow. is not high. According to B. Danilishin,

capital outflows from developing countries appeared as an outflow of foreign portfolio investment as the most mobile type of investment in a changing macroeconomic situation. In Ukraine, this was observed in July in the form of a massive repayment of UAH-denominated bonds held by non-residents in their portfolios. As they received funds, they converted the hryvnia into foreign currency, which led to an increase in demand for it. "The peak of payments denominated in Hryvnia OVDP in favor of non-residents came in July, the expected redemption volume of non-resident OVDPs is moderate, as well as additional demand for foreign currency was observed following the high repayments of VAT, "said B. Danilishin. ] According to him, given the weakening of the influence of Fed interest rates and low rates of repayment of government bonds in favor of non-residents, and account given that Ukrainian agricultural exports will start at the end of the summer, in August, one should expect a comparable balance in the Ukrainian exchange market with a slight advantage in the sense of the influx of foreign currency.