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In 2015, the National Bank of Ukraine abandoned the policy of a fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia against "strong" currencies. But Ukrainians continue to follow the dollar and, as a result, are scared and start to panic if the same course "jumps". Although this is a normal situation for a flexible exchange rate
a flexible exchange rate is determined by market forces acting on the foreign exchange market. And it is on this principle that an exchange rate is being formed in Ukraine. It does not provide the NBU – the regulator simply studies the situation on the foreign exchange market (demand and money supply) and provides the weighted average exchange rate on the interbank foreign exchange market of Ukraine
of course
Stay on course at the expense of something. If the economy is actively growing, the GDP rises, so the currency in the state will be stable. But if there is a crisis in the country, the production is worth it, so it is possible to keep the rate only at the expense of the reserves. "Hold" the course in Ukraine was a political decision. And they paid for it gold and currency reserves, reducing them from 10 to 5 billion dollars for 10 years. In 2015, Ukraine simply did not have the reserves to go further. As a result, the fixed exchange rate has been dropped.
Instead, the NBU switched to the inflation targeting policy, that is, the regulator's goal is to maintain inflation. That means – instead of looking at the dollar, you have to look at the level of inflation.
Why inflation is "the main"
The head of projects and programs of the NBU open market department, Emal Bakhtari, explained why Ukrainians should not about the exchange rate [19659008] This is important because our well-being is associated with all the prices, not just with the prices of gasoline, iphone and rest in Turkey. Our consumption is not entirely related to the dollar. The exchange rate affects prices, but there is no direct connection. If the devalued currency of 10%, this does not mean that all prices have increased by 10%. Imported products are rising, but there are also domestic products that we consume. Therefore, inflation will not be 10%. And it is precisely on this that economic agents must navigate,
– Bakhtary specified
See also: Some products doubled their price during the year: impressive figures
There must leave the fact that the course will be stable. always "jump". We observe for three years – at the beginning of the year, the course "flies", then in half a year "goes down" and then grows again. This cycle is tied to the agrarian cycle because they are our biggest exporters. And this cycle is repeated. If 20-30-40-50 cents change course, it's not terrible, Bakhtari said. We are scared by the third year that "the dollar will be 30-40". But until now, this has not happened. Now the course is 26.47, and at the beginning of the year it was 28.
Trust in the hryvnia is not at a height
Another problem, which seeks to overcome the NBU – the problem of confidence in the national currency. To this end, actively pursue a policy of decentralization – a reduction of foreign currencies in the economy of Ukraine.
Bakhtari reminded us – we survived the crisis of 1998, 2008, 2014-2015. People have the habit of keeping money in foreign currency more surely. Because the national currency has been speculated, "juggled" for their needs, maintaining a fixed exchange rate. There are still supporters of this monetary regulation. The purpose of decentralization is to increase confidence in the national currency. Because its NBU can be adjusted from the point of view of inflation. When the majority of Ukrainians keep savings in currency – the National Bank is not able to control the inflation process.
What predicted inflation
By the end of 2018, the forecast of inflation is 8.9%. Basic inflation forecast NBU has revised down to 7.1%. In the quarterly "Inflation Report" for July 2018, it is also stated that a number of factors will push the inflation rate into the second half of 2018 and into 2019. Thus, at By the end of 2018, larger-than-expected increases in administered prices and tariffs are expected as domestic gas prices come closer to the import parity price
. demand, notably through higher wages and transfers of migrant workers; decreased investor interest in Ukraine's sovereign bonds due to the global trend of investors withdrawing from developing country assets and the delay in securing funding under the co-operation program the IMF
% by the end of 2019, and in 2020, it will slow to 5.0% and will thus reach the central value of the target range (5.0% ± 1 pp).
Read also: Why the hryvnia which course to wait
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