[ad_1]
From here 2024, in the middle of the next cycle of light activity, the probability of occurrence of dangerous coronal emissions and frequency of outbreaks on the Sun will be as high as possible, informs 1NEWS by referring to Khvylu
What the scientists who published the article in the journal Nature Communications
The activity of the Sun, illustrated by the observations of the last four centuries, changes cyclically with a period of about 11 years, during which the number of points on the surface of the light gradually decreases and increases.
"The next cycle will gradually fade, decreasing ting solar activity will be slightly stronger than their colleagues suggest.The probability that it is lower than the 24th cycle is actually zero. therefore, we should not expect a repeat of the Maunder minimum and the onset of a new ice age, "said Dibyendu Nandi of the Kolkata Center for Space Studies (India).
Abnormally long periods of rest, such as the minimum Munderov of the 17th century and Daltonovsky at least the 19th century, are associated with the cold. As a result, the increase in the number of outbreaks in the modern era is associated with global warming by many astrophysics.
According to scientists, until recently, the Sun was in the phase of the "Great Sun", during which the activity of light was several times greater than the multi-year standard.
However, the current 24th cycle, which began in January 2008, was at its lowest level. Once, astronomers feared that the light would hibernate forever, but the recovery of its activity in 2015 partially dispelled these suspicions.
Similar ideas have forced astronomers to think about the duration of these cycles and their ability to change the principle. 19659003] A year ago, German geologists discovered the first evidence that it had not changed for nearly 300 million years. This did not, however, affect the feelings of the alarmists, who spread the theory of the early start of the "ice age" because of the end of this cycle.
Nandie and her colleague Práthia Bhumík found that this would not happen by creating a new computer model. The Sun, which allows to predict the level of its activity according to the current number of points on its surface, their properties and the general configuration of magnetic fields of light.
After verifying his work on the ten previous cycles, scientists have calculated their behavior over the period 2019-2030.
for calculations have shown, the sun begins to come out of "hibernation" in about 2020, when the current cycle ends. The level of minimum activity in 2019 will be slightly higher than at the beginning of the decade.
Climatologists have analyzed the evolution of solar activity over the next millennium and concluded that the reduction in light activity would result in a significant decrease in average annual temperatures in Europe. in the middle of this century.
The maximum number of spots on the surface of the Sun will be observed in 2024-2025. Their number will be relatively small, but it will still be much higher than that of the 24th cycle. As astrophysicists point out, this can be compared to the behavior of light in the 1920s and 1930s, at the beginning of the Great Solar High.
All this, as Nandya notes, suggests that it is unlikely that there is a new Earth. the ice age and that global warming will slow down. On the contrary, these calculations show that the growth of light activity over the next 10 years can increase the temperature on Earth and accelerate climate change.
[ad_2]
Source link
