Trump confronted with historically bad figures for his reelection in 2020



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Its net approval rating (approval rating minus rating of disapproval) has always been negative.

But this figure in itself does not necessarily mean that Trump will be defeated in 2020. Conservative commentators like Newt Gingrich and Hugh Hewitt have pointed out, President Ronald Reagan had this point in his presidency before winning a landslide victory in his 1984 re-election campaign.

New polls conclude however that the depth of opposition to Trump is much deeper than she's been in. was at Reagan. This suggests that Trump could have a much harder job reversing his bad grades than Reagan or actually any president in the modern polling era.

56% of voters said they would certainly vote against Trump in the 2020 general election, compared to 28% who would definitely vote for him and 14% who would consider voting for him, according to ABC News / Washington Post poll .

Compare that with a Garth analysis study done in February 1983 for Reagan (ie, at about the same point in the Reagan presidency). Only 32% of voters said they would certainly vote against Reagan, 31% considered voting for someone else and 26% said they would certainly support Reagan.

In other words, by a margin of 24 points, more citizens now say they will definitely vote against Trump in 2020 than those who said they would definitely vote against Reagan in the 1984 round. [19659006ItisinterestingtonotethatReaganandTrumphadsimilarsizedcorebasesThe26%whosaythattheywouldcertainlyvoteforReaganisonly2pointsbelowthe28%whosaytheywouldcertainlyvoteforTrump

However, Reagan had a whole series of potential supporters to whom Trump seems to be lacking. More than double the percentage of voters were at least willing to vote for Reagan (31%) compared to those they were willing to vote for Trump (14%). (Another 10% said that they did not know Reagan, while only 1% said it for Trump.) Together, those who would certainly vote for Reagan and who were considering voting for him reached 57% . For Trump, it only reaches 42%.

Indeed, for all presidents to whom this question was asked, Trump clearly has the strongest opposition.

Only 32% of respondents said in an Ipsos poll in January 2003 that they would definitely vote against George W. Bush. A majority of 40% said they would certainly vote for him, with 25% considering voting for Bush. Together, 65% said that they would at least consider voting for Bush.

For Obama, the highest "undisputed" vote I could get him in 2011 was 47% in a June poll by ABC News / Washington Post. Even in his worst survey, 52% said they would certainly vote for him (27%) or would consider voting for him (25%). Again, this number for Trump is currently 42%, 10 points lower.

Before we get carried away, I must obviously note that we are still in almost two years of elections in 2020. Many things can potentially happen to change these numbers.

But these statistics paint a very gloomy picture for the president. Anyone who thinks it will be easy for Trump to persuade his unbelievers to get deeply wrong.

The ABC News / Washington Post poll is the latest to suggest that Trump's opposition is much more stalled than suggested by popularity ratings.

As I said earlier, 47% of Americans already say they believe Trump's presidency will fail. This means that Americans do not just disapprove of Trump at the moment but believe that they will never change their minds about it. This 47% is higher than any poll taken at any time for any presidency in the last 25 years. That includes well in the second half of George W. Bush's second term, following Hurricane Katrina, the mid-year 2006 bad for Republicans and a war in Iraq that swept the minds of Americans.
A previous poll by Marist College found that the same percentage (45%) of Americans thought Trump was doing a bad job (on a scale from excellent to pretty good to only fair to poor) as president as Richard Nixon thought a bad job two weeks before his resignation.

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