Trump-Russia survey: the 5 biggest scenarios of 2019

In 2018, President Donald Trump saw members of the inner circle of his campaign – including his former president – pleading guilty to federal crimes in the investigation led by special advocate Robert Mueller on the Russia's interference in the 2016 election.

But in 2019, that's quite things could become even worse for Trump and his entourage.

Rumors that Mueller will soon complete his investigation continue to swirl, which means the world could soon find out if the Trump campaign would be a collusion with Russia to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.

If the investigation continues, Mueller may be able to charge people even closer to Trump. President Roger Stone's long-time advisor, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his son Donald Trump Jr. have all been subject to scrutiny by the special council.

If the danger worsens for Trump or for his family, the president could finally do what he was by calling and try to close the investigation of the Special advocate. If that happens, expect a political storm and even calls for impeachment, especially since Democrats will control the House of Representatives.

Finally, it is possible that Trump finds himself in legal problems for crimes unrelated to Russia. Federal prosecutors who have no connection with Mueller are particularly interested in the amount of foreign funds in the coffers of his inaugural committee. This means that the president must be more concerned than Mueller.

Key points to watch out for in Trump-Russia and other investigations in 2019. Depending on how they unfold, the president – and the country – may face an even greater legal and political crisis than Trump's first two years .

1) Does Mueller have anything to say about Trump-Russia collusion?

Thirty-three people were indicted or pleaded guilty to the Mueller investigation. This number includes five former Trump advisers. We know that Trump's relatives, including members of his family, held secret meetings with the Russians during the campaign. We even know for sure that the Russians tried to influence the election and that they had a strong preference for Trump rather than for Hillary Clinton.

The crucial answer we do not have yet is whether Trump, or a member of his entourage, has actively collaborated with Russia. win the presidential election of 2016. That's what Mueller was originally intended to discover – and this is the biggest question to which he has not yet responded publicly. This is probably the reason why Trump and his entourage continue to say "no collusion" whenever someone addresses the issue of Mueller

But there is certainly circumstantial evidence, if you want to call that, close links between Trump and Russia. 19659012] Russian President Vladimir Putin hands over to US President Donald Trump a World Cup soccer ball at a joint press conference held in Helsinki after his summit of July 16, 2018. "style =" object-position 49% 49% "data-upload-width =" 4027 "src =" https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tIvtatuZmUPSiqxtZe36UWrDrpc=/0x0:4027×2685/1200×0/filters:focal(0x0:4027×2685): no_upscale () / cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11716233/1000226238.jpg.jpg "/>

Chris McGrath / Getty Images

First, Russia stole e-mails from Democrats and strategically broadcast them via WikiLeaks at critical times in the 2016 campaign. Trump and his campaign, at the time, believed that these emails were very important and quoted them frequently. "WikiLeaks, I love WikiLeaks," Trump said repeatedly during the election campaign. He even explicitly called on the Russian government to hack and broadcast Hillary Clinton's emails.

Second, there were numerous communications between Trump's orbiters and Russian government officials and others who had, or claimed to have, close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Part of this communication – including the email sent by Michael Cohen in January 2016 to a prominent Putin collaborator and the exchange of Ivanka Trump in October 2015 with a Russian Olympic weightlifter – apparently bore on the construction of a Trump brand building in Moscow. We now know that the efforts of the members of the Trump Organization and related to it to carry out this project continued during Mr. Trump's presidential campaign

but some of the communications, including the various escapades of the old Trump campaign advisers George Papadopoulos and Carter Page involved relatively peripheral players who did not have strong ties to Trump prior to the campaign or did not play an important role in the post-campaign administration.

Third, Donald Trump Jr. met with the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia while attending the National Rifle Association's Annual Convention in Kentucky in May 2016. An American conservative activist by the name of Paul Erickson, former boyfriend of the Russian foreign agent Maria Butina, organized the meeting.

This could have been a step forward in creating communication channels between Russia and the Trump campaign. Moreover, the question of Butina to Trump at a conference in 2015 for the first time prompted to consider lifting the sanctions against Russia (it should be noted however that as president he actually added sanctions to Russia).

And finally, Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and campaign chairman Paul Manafort, attended the infamous Trump Tower meeting with a Russian lawyer – a meeting of which Trump's associates were explicitly informed that it was part of the Russian government's efforts to support Trump's candidacy.

There is more, but you see the idea.

It is of course possible, if not quite likely, that the restricted circle of Trump and the Russians close to the Kremlin did not get along during the campaign. There was a lot of interaction, but no real plan to work together to get Trump. It is still unclear whether Mueller will definitely answer this question in 2019. But there is no other more urgent or important issue to answer.

2) Will Trump Trying to End the Mueller Inquiry?

This major issue of 2017 and 2018 will remain as important in 2019. Indeed, the probe Mueller is closer to the greatest collaborators of Trump and himself. What's different this year is that Trump now has a big supporter and a critic of Mueller as Acting Attorney General.

Up to now, five former Trump advisers have pleaded guilty or have been indicted. Two of them, Michael Flynn, a former short-term national security advisor and linked to Russia, and former campaign manager Rick Gates, continue to cooperate with Mueller.

We know of four specific questions that Mueller asked the president in written questions. : Trump Tower meeting of Donald Trump Jr., Roger Stone and possible WikiLeaks communications, Michael Cohen's Trump Tower talks in Moscow and a change from the Republican platform regarding Ukraine to the GOP convention of 2016.

So it's no wonder that many were worried when Trump dismissed his former Attorney General, Jeff Sessions – who had defended the independence of the Mueller probe – in November and l? had replaced by Matthew Whitaker – a man who had publicly criticized the Mueller probe.

Jamie Squire / Getty Images

Whitaker, a former American lawyer from Iowa, was the "look and ears" of the White House in the Justice case. Department, according to the New York Times. He is also a fiscal and social conservative who unsuccessfully presented himself to the Senate in 2014. He joins Trump when he tackles issues such as crime and immigration, but Whitaker has the added benefit of having publicly criticized Mueller.

For example, in August. 2017 Whitaker wrote an editorial for CNN in which he ransacked the probe. "Mueller crossed a red line in the investigation of Russia's 2016 meddling in the constituency that he is dangerously close to crossing," Whitaker wrote. "If he was to continue investigating financial relations [Trump family’s] without expanding his mandate, this would raise serious concerns that the special advocate's investigation was a mere witch hunt.

Mueller must inform Whitaker of the major situation investigation actions. This means that the Acting Attorney General could severely stop at the probe by refusing some of Mueller's requests. As far as we know, this has not happened yet and there is no public indication that Whitaker has decided to reduce Mueller's authority. It is also quite possible that Trump's permanent choice for the position of Attorney General, William Barr, conscientiously oversees Mueller's investigation.

But keeping this possibility in mind will remain a priority issue in 2019.

3) Will Mueller announce further indictments?

Another big question is whether Mueller is considering accusing someone close to the president. The investigators looked closely at three people in particular.

Let's start with Trump Jr .: In his testimony before the Judiciary Committee of the Senate in September 2017, he asserted that he "had not participated" in the efforts of the Trump organization. to build a tower in Moscow, "did not know" that his father's lawyer, Michael Cohen, had contacted the Kremlin directly about this and had suggested to Cohen to collaborate with Russian-born developer Felix Sater, on the project before 2016. [19659041] But Cohen admitted in December that efforts to get the Trump Tower Moscow off the ground continued until in 2016 and had occurred to the Trump family's knowledge. And according to Mueller's criminal record accusing Cohen of lying to Congress, Cohen apparently apparently "informed the family members of the individual 1 [Donald Trump] of the project company" in Moscow

. Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump are all members of the President's family who were working for the Trump Organization at the time – but considering the role of Trump Jr. as one of the most senior officials from Trump Organization, it's hard to imagine that he was not among them.

This means that it is possible that Trump Jr. knowingly lied in Congress. If this is the case, Mueller could charge the president's son this year. Whoa.

But another son might also have legal problems in 2019 – a son-in-law, that is to say.

In December 2017, Mueller released a judicial document describing a "very senior" member of Trump's presidential transition team, asking Michael Flynn to persuade the Russian ambassador to the United States to stop a vote of the UN Security Council on Israeli settlement policy. [19659046] Several reports confirmed that the person in charge was Kushner. That makes sense: Kushner was an extremely important figure during the transition and the reports of the time suggest that he was involved in the Trump team's deliberations on the issue of settlements.

Win McNamee / Getty Images

This is one of the many times that the name of Kushner was quoted about the question of Russia. During the transition with Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, he reportedly discussed the establishment of a secret communication channel. Donald Trump Jr. met a Russian lawyer who had promised to "dirty" Hillary Clinton during the campaign. There is also information that Kushner allegedly urged Trump to remove James Comey, then director of the FBI.

Kushner also amended his financial disclosure forms at least 39 times . These forms are important: they are necessary for Kushner to obtain a security clearance. Zeeshan Aleem reported for Vox that Kushner had not originally reported the Trump campaign communications with Russia; his meetings with the Russians; his business relations with the Russians; and more. In addition to this, Kushner used a private email account to manage government affairs.

So it is safe to say that Kushner – who remains one of the best advisers in the White House – could be in Mueller's line of sight.

And then, there is Roger Stone, the Trump campaign advisor and infamous political agent. Mueller has been interested in Stone for some time, informing about his conference calls in 2016, his emails with former Trump White House strategist Steve Bannon, and his contacts with the theorist Jerome Corsi's plot.

Stone's contacts are, however, the big problem. with WikiLeaks, the organization of transparency that has published e-mails of Democrats that the Russians have stolen.

Stone has publicly claimed to have basic information about the plans of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to disclose damaging information about Hillary Clinton. In addition, he admitted last June that he had also met a Russian national who called himself "Henry Greenberg", which he said offered to dirty Hillary Clinton and asked him for 2 million dollars.

In all of these cases, Stone denies that anything untoward has taken place. But his story changes often. What did he do exactly in 2016? Was it legal? And what did Trump know about it? (Indeed, one of the questions that Mueller's team wants to ask the president is: "What did you know about the communication between Roger Stone, his collaborators, Julian Assange or WikiLeaks?")

Si Mueller knows more about that, we may learn more this year.

4) What does Mueller do with his conclusions?

If Mueller finishes his investigation in 2019, we do not know if it will be made public. Even if the probe survives, no one will ever be able to hear most of his discoveries

Alex Wong / Getty Images

This is because Mueller is legally required to submit a confidential report to the person who oversees his investigation, in this case the Attorney General by interim, Matthew Whitaker. And Whitaker has no obligation to send the report to Congress or to inform the public, which means that most of Mueller's discoveries may remain secretive.

Whitaker, or the person who becomes permanent Attorney General, could choose to publish all or part of the report, but that person is only required to warn Congress that if Mueller proposes measures "so inappropriate or unjustified "under the rules of the Ministry of Justice" that they should not be prosecuted ".

So, unless Mueller does something that Whitaker does not find unacceptable, he can keep the secret report

Mueller certainly knows it, which is why the experts say that he is using his deeds. Accusation to reveal some of what he finds. "He tells a story through the indictments he is filing in court, strikingly describing Russia's efforts to interfere in the elections," Vox Jens David told reporters. Ohlin, vice-dean of Cornell Law School, March 1965.] The growing narrative is that Mueller's indictments have effectively turned into a public report. That makes sense, because Whitaker or any other Trump loyalist can not prevent court documents from entering the public domain. The fact of being extremely detailed in any court record allows the Mueller probe to bypass the GOP's efforts to smother the final report.

It is therefore possible that 2019 is not the year of the publication of the final document; Instead, this could be the year that Mueller reveals everything in the US judicial system.

5) Why so much foreign money for Trump 's inaugural committee?

In December 2017, we learned that Trump was facing another criminal investigation: one in his inauguration. Yes, seriously.

Prosecutors in the US District Attorney's Office in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) seem interested in spending the inaugural committee and in potential corruption involving favors to its donors. The criminal investigation would come at least in part from documents uncovered during the FBI's raids on the residence and office of Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, in April 2017.

C & # 39; particularly interesting now that Rick Gates, the former Trump collaborator who helped lead the inaugural committee and concluded an advocacy agreement with Mueller in February – is cooperating with the government.

Kevin Dietsch-Pool / Getty Images

Trump's inaugural committee garnered an impressive 106.7 Millions of dollars, double the record set by Barack Obama at the inauguration of the 2009 Committee. But what they did is not so clear. It is of course possible that Gates and Tom Barrack, the billionaire at the head of the inaugural committee, were very good fundraisers.

But federal prosecutors seem to be looking to find out if there was a misrepresentation, as a counterpart in which a foreign government was offering a lot of money in exchange for a favor. In May, ABC News reported that Mueller was questioning witnesses "about millions of dollars in donations to the inauguration committee of President Donald Trump" – especially "donors with ties to Russia," he said. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar ".

The true nature of the record-breaking fundraising campaign – incomplete or innocuous – is likely to be revealed in 2019.