Trump's nightmare: the economy or the wall?

"He is a carnivore – and on this one, he thinks he is right," said the Republican of Louisiana.

Closing of offices usually ends when one or the other of the parties, the president or congress, begins to feel an unbearable pressure and the cost of prosecution outweigh the political damage caused by descent

As this pivot point is not yet available, longer-term factors may play. One of the major pressure points could be the side effects of closing economic growth, unemployment and consumer confidence.

If the confrontation with the president's request to make Democrats benefit from an additional $ 5.7 billion financing is extended, the chances of real damage to the economy – l & # 39; One of the undisputed hotspots of the Trump presidency – dramatically increases.

"We later think that it's about a tenth of a percent a week, not a tenth of a percent every two weeks," Hassett told reporters on Tuesday.

His purpose was to pressure the Capitol Hill Democrats to yield to Trump's demands. But it also served to highlight the risk to the president, who is probably more at stake on the economy than the Democrats.

JPMorgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, on Wednesday dismissed the closure of "self-inflicted injury" and "harm" for economy.

Trump rarely misses an opportunity celebrate historically low unemployment rates and strong growth figures. Good economic indicators will be critical to his hopes of re-election and may thwart democratic attacks next year as he seeks to retain the Midwest industrial states that have paved the way for the White House.

If the economic damage caused by the closure begins to sum up, it could weigh much more heavily in Trump's political calculations.

The economy is "incredibly strong"

White House spokeswoman, Sarah Sanders, attempted Wednesday to crush a growing speech that the closure could put a damper on Trump's economy.

"We focus on the long-term economic goals of the administration," Sanders said. "We have an incredibly strong economy, thanks to the president, and we look forward to reopening the government, continuing to build on what we have achieved over the past two years."

An economic puzzle might prove to be one of the ways in which Trump begins to feel the political heat about the closure, especially if it starts to spill over into the stock markets, which is are stabilized after a volatile period early in the year.

But if the economy drives him to collapse, it will be difficult choice, because the closure could be the last chance to get funding for the wall during his tenure. Although he could promise to continue fighting for the Wall of Borders in his race for reelection, his promises could be downgraded if he was defeated by the Democrats this time around.

Up to now, the president has not seemed to move. The traditional leverage points that occur during stops.

He did not show much sympathy for government employees forced to remain untreated, even suggesting that they want him to stay upright and that he is losing his Wall.

And since he has not made much effort to expand his political coalition in power, he has few average voters to lose to rush into a confrontation that will please his based.

Democratic leaders try to change the equation. The leader of the Senate minority, Chuck Schumer, on Wednesday discussed the fate of a government employee who had missed his salary last week and did not know if he could afford to buy drugs .

"I wish President Trump to look at these faces and see what he's doing by using them, men and women as pawns, using them in an extortion game," he said. New York Democrat.

"Mr. President, President Trump, look at the suffering you are causing," Schumer said.

But Trump has so far shown himself insensitive to such calls. A president who has always had close ties with the people who sent him to the White House believes that he still has time to breathe.

The polarization of polling stations over the wall

A new poll Wednesday showed the price that the president could pay if he collapsed against the wall, a fundamental election promise that is one of the keys to its connection with its grassroots supporters.

And pointing out why neither party thinks its political position could be in jeopardy, 82 percent of Republicans and lean Republicans support a substantial expansion of the border wall. Only 6% of Democrats are in agreement.

Democrats do indeed occupy a strong political position. Pelosi is at the height of her power as president just months after the triumph of the mid-term democratic elections. She also managed to spread Trump's blame on the stalemate by passing bills to open individual agencies, which resulted in nothing in the Senate.

In a letter to the president on Wednesday, she managed a veritable power game, claiming that due to security concerns related to the closure, he should reconsider the date of his speech on the state of the state. 39; Union.

Since Trump loves to address a joint session of Congress as part of an annual television ritual, Pelosi left little choice to the president.

In fact, Pelosi was sending Trump a reminder of his power and telling him that if he wanted to have his real speech about the state of the Union, he should give up his demands and reopen the government.

Trump attempted to seize power by inviting a group of moderate Democrats to the White House as part of a bipartisan group of moderates, seeking to remove them from Pelosi.

But one of the lawmakers, Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey He explained to CNN's Manu Raju that he had been urging the president on the Democratic Party's fundamental stance.

"It is very difficult to find an agreement on the way forward to address these pressing issues without reopening the government," said Gottheimer.

His comments are a new sign that the internal political forces in Washington that could come out of stalemate are not yet in place, which means that it would require a significant boost from the momentum. outside – perhaps an economic downturn – to get out of the stalemate.