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BLOOMFIELD HILLS, Mich. (AP) – Jill Mott does not like tweets. The hard line at the border is too hard. And when asked if she will vote for President Donald Trump a second time, she lets out a long and deep sigh.
"That's the question," said Mott, a Republican from the suburbs of Detroit.
hesitantly, Mott is the portrait of a small but significant slice of voters, ready to exert considerable influence in the 2020 presidential campaign. This is the 18% of voters who described themselves as not approving than "rather" the president.
It is a group whose support for Trump is the most tenuous and whose reservations about his personality and his politics reveal some warning signs for the Republicans, perhaps even more so than any other. He insisted on his request for a US-Mexican border wall, culminating in a budget stalemate with Congress that closed the government around Christmas.
Analysis of VoteCast, a national survey of more than 115,000 mid-term voters. NORC's review of The Associated Press at the University of Chicago highlights fractures.
Compared to the 27% of voters who describe themselves as powerful supporters of Trump, Trump's "a little" voters are much more likely to disapprove of it. key issues such as immigration and health care, and to express differing opinions on the need for a border wall, gun control and climate change. They are much more likely to doubt his credibility and temperament.
They are less likely to say they are conservative, less likely to be evangelical Christians and more likely to have voted for Democrats in 2018. They are more educated, slightly more likely to be women and have more chances to live in the suburbs.
"Her main problem is her presentation," said Mott, a 52-year-old occupational therapist, who responded to her concerns last week during a Christmas shopping break. in front of the Gucci store in the luxury Somerset Collection Mall. She is also concerned about the President 's heated approach to immigration.
"I understand what he wants: to try to prevent any criminal activity," said Mott, pointing to Trump's speech about a caravan of Latin American migrants seeking asylum at the American border. . "However, I think that he could do a lot better to show his concern for these people, offering short-term help."
As Trump enters his third year in office and concentrates more and more on his own reelection, he has little attention given to the support of voters such as Mott.
Nevertheless, Trump's political future may depend on his ability to maintain his support, particularly among the more educated and wealthier suburban women who have left their concerns about Trump alone about two years ago. years. and they will be invited to do so again in 2020. Their support has helped Trump make his way to the presidency via the industrial Midwest, but with a very small margin of error. The president won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with less than 80,000 combined votes.
VoteCast revealed that 16% of those who somewhat "supported" Trump's work decided to vote for Democrat House candidates in mid-November. That's 6% of people who identified themselves as "powerful" Trump supporters.
This difference allowed the Democrats to win the majority in the House, winning 21 out of 40 seats in the districts Trump won two years earlier. Trump's upset districts include the 8th Michigan Congress, a group of suburban American suburbs located between Detroit and Lansing.
Dozens of recent interviews in the area show that most of Trump's reluctant supporters are not ready to turn his back on him. or his party.
Michael Bernstein voted for Trump in 2016 and said he was ready to do it again in 2020. Bernstein, 52, points out that Trump's economy and success in having judges approved for the US Supreme Court proves that He has chosen the right candidate, but the Detroit suburban auto editor could do without what Trump brings.
"He is supposed to represent the country and the people who do not like it," Bernstein added. "He does not do it, he prefers to play in the mud."
The November elections, however, show signs of erosion In the 8th congressional district of Michigan, Republican Mike Bishop was ousted by the new Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who attributes her victory in part to Trump's skeptical supporters.
"It's partly the reason we won – those voters who kept an open mind.," Slotkin said. stated in an interview
"We had a lot of voters who said that I was the first Democrat for which they voted. , "she says." They do not necessarily become democrats. They have just voted for the candidate who best represents their values. "
The analysis of VoteCast suggests that a significant portion of these suspicious Trump supporters have common views with Democrats of the Trump era.
About half of "Some" Proponents stated that Trump had the good temperament to effectively serve as president or consider him to be honest and trustworthy.
With respect to health care, reluctant supporters are more likely to think that the government should be responsible for ensuring that all Americans are covered and that they are far away
Trump's reluctant supporters are also much more concerned about climate change than other Trump supporters and more likely to call for stricter firearms laws.
Immigration exposed another clear break in the Trump coalition
Most Trump supporters are in favor of Border wall construction, but only 32% of its rs are strongly in favor, compared to 80% of its powerful approvers.
While 60% of Trump's supporters believed that immigrants living illegally in the United States should be deported, about 6 out of 10 reluctant supporters would be asked to apply for legal status.
Nevertheless, it is uncertain that Trump's reluctant proponents will give up the president on his re-election in 2020, said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, also skeptical of Trump.
"They rejected the Democrats. But they do not totally embrace Trump. So the question is whether they stay with Trump or stay at home, "Luntz said.
Republican leaders are aware of divisions within Trump's support base, but few people expect Trump to moderate his tone or appeal to a hesitant political party.Some hope that he will learn to center his message on the economy.
About 90% Trump supporters still support his management of the economy and 8 out of 10 say he is a strong leader, he makes the necessary changes, and in the government he defends what he believes.
Of course, there are sometimes frustrations, but I know that I have more money in my paycheque, more people are working in our community, the values of the house are rising, "said Theresa Mungioli, president from Oakland County GOP, Michigan, where Republicans have p The two congressional seats this autumn
acknowledged that some mid-term voters, especially women, could have lost control of Trump's leadership, particularly with regard to security issues. "Perhaps partly because the president can be – like to bluff in his negotiations, which suggests that we are on the verge of war," Mungioli said. "This kind of instability was something that voters expressed."
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