[ad_1]
Step 1: Cold. Step 2: The Snow
At least that is how things should work in winter here in New Jersey. Of course, even the best-prepared projects of Ol & Man Winter have left Garden State snow enthusiasts rather disappointed this winter.
For the umpteenth time this year, we can not legitimately call one of our winter storms looming a "snowstorm". "The first is too minor, and the second is more precisely a" mix storm. "Or a" quick snow shot then a lot of rain storm. "
Still, the timing of these two waves of winter conditions will be incredibly awkward and could create very messy conditions during rush hours, and a region of the state might finally see enough snow to build a snowman after all.
Part 1: Sunday night to Monday morning
-Timing … The first bursts around Sunday night Low to moderate snow during the night The last snowflakes end around 8 am on Monday
-The totals … Everyone in the state could see an accumulation half-inch snow an inch. About 2 inches of new snow are possible in the area of central and southern New Jersey. For the record, the models were quite consistent in showing the most snow around the NJ slice containing the counties of Ocean, Atlantic, Gloucester, Camden and Burlington. South of this area (Salem, Cumberland, Cap May) there may be a mix of ice pellets and / or freezing rain, which could result in reduced ice conditions.
-Impacts … Not a major winter storm. Not even a storm of "advisory" criteria in the book. However, the moment is very embarrassing here. At the rush hour on Monday morning, the situation could become disastrous on the roads. School delays, quite possible. We will see. School closure, eh
– Confidence … Moderate to high. I am happy to see how the models have resulted in this consensual solution. All that I've read recently suggests a "conversational" or "annoying" snow episode.
Part Two: Monday night to Wednesday morning
-Timing … Note: There could be winter mix showers in the extreme south of NJ until Monday afternoon. But the real thrust of this system will trigger the first bursts around 18 hours. On Monday. Most or all of New Jersey will be covered with light to moderate snow around midnight. As the waves of warm air blow, the south, coastal areas and much of central Jersey will turn into rain around 6 pm Tuesday. All NJ will have turned to rain (strong sometimes) at 19 hours. Tuesday at the latest. Wednesday, the rain is completely over.
-Totals … A delicate transition between snow / ice and rain. The southern and coastal areas of the state will experience the least amount of snow, probably in the range of 1 to 2 inches. A subsequent transition will lead to a longer snow period for central and northern New Jersey, so I'm looking at 2 to 4 inches or more.
– The Biggest Problem … The northwest corner of Track 1 can stay below 0 ° C for even longer than the models currently suggest. (See the section on the schedule above: we may not see a 100% transition before Tuesday evening.) Heavier snow totals of more than 6 inches are therefore a possibility, especially at night. ;altitude. Worse still, if we end up with a prolonged temperature close to freeze marks during the transition, freezing rain and / or ice pellets could cause significant icing in the northern sector.
-Impacts … everything is a question of timing. No matter what falls from the sky – snow, ice or rain – travel conditions during Tuesday morning rush hours will be bad. Continuous neglect is possible until Tuesday evenings. Once again, the areas north and west of the Highway 1 corridor will be the snowiest and the coldest for the duration. The south, the coastal regions and part of central New Jersey will be spared the most important problems. I'll bet we'll see warnings and maybe even a warning for this second, more violent storm.
– Confidence … Low to moderate. On the one hand, I think we have reduced the potential storm scenarios. Bottom line: snow / ice, changing to rain. However, the timing and speed of the snow-mix-rain transition is particularly difficult to pin down. And finally, that's what determines the amount of snow / ice / rain that a given place will see. As always, I will encourage you to blur your eyes and read between the lines of this forecast. Do not focus too much on figures but rather on my general account. In other words, be aware that the weather conditions from Monday to Tuesday will be rather poor, regardless of the circumstances. # 1 does not meet my usual standard of publishing a card "2 inches or more". And # 2 is still confident enough that I do not want to promote specific numbers and lines for the moment.
The next update of the weather blog is scheduled for Sunday morning. Meanwhile, stay warm and enjoy your weekend!
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on on Facebook or on on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and real-time weather updates.
[ad_2]
Source link
