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One way to find out is to see how the different possible candidates have succeeded in the past. Of course, it is difficult to compare candidates when they come to different positions over the years.
There are, however, six potential Democratic Party candidates for 2020 who came to the US Senate in 2018.
The great advantage of these results is the sense. Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota, and Sherrod Brown, of Ohio, are above average candidates The question of the faculty of election, although Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts – who announced Monday that she had formed a committee to review a presidential bid for 2020 – was below average.
Klobuchar won with 24 points. The Democratic House of Minnesota candidates won by 11 points, the same margin. Klobuchar's Democrat colleague, Democrat Senator Tina Smith, won his special election by. Klobuchar therefore had an outperformance of 13 points.
Klobuchar's victory is particularly impressive when we see all the Democratic candidates in the Senate running for 2018. Only Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia did better than Klobuchar compared to the US House candidates in their states. .
Brown won his race in Ohio by 7 points. It may not seem like much, but Ohio Democrats have struggled to compete in the House. In total, candidates from the Republican House in Ohio beat Democratic House candidates by 5 points. In other words, Brown made 12 points better than the baseline.
In contrast, Warren comes from a very different state politically. Warren won in Massachusetts by 24 points. House Democrats, however, have swept all congressional races in the Bay State. If all candidates to the US House of Democrats in Massachusetts had had Republican opponents, it is calculated that the Democrats would have won the cumulative vote in the House of the State by 36 points.
The story is not quite clear to the other potential Democratic candidates for 2020 who have applied for the Senate in 2018. Gillibrand and O & Rourke have done slightly better than the candidates for the Democratic House. in their states, Sanders did slightly worse. "
It could be that New York and Vermont are so blue that there was not much room for improvement for Gillibrand or Sanders, because I'm not sure that it's all right." there is a lot Glib on the job readiness for Gillibrand or Sanders based on these data. "Nevertheless, Gillibrand arrives ahead of Sanders on this point.
In conclusion, the case of Mr. O. Rourke as an above average candidate in eligibility is not as strong as for Brown or Klobuchar. Although their above-average eligibility concerns only their region of origin, Brown and Klobuchar have fairly easy cases to defend.
Both countries easily won in states in which President Donald Trump had done better than the average Republican in 2016. They could possibly reduce the president's support in the Midwest in a way that could Be decisive in 2020, just like Trump's strength in the country. The region proved decisive in 2016.
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