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The National Bank revealed the factors and factors influencing the hryvnia exchange rate. In addition, representatives of the state regulator point out that the demand and the proposal of currencies essentially reflect the state of the country's economy and its financial system
. do not panic over currencies
In line with the NBU monetary policy strategy and the fundamentals of monetary policy for 2018 and the medium-term perspective (among others, to determine the peculiarities of the National Bank's monetary policy) 39 Ukraine In other words, monetary policy should not aim to reach a certain level or range of the hryvnia exchange rate (its main objective is low and stable inflation) .Thus, the exchange rate depends mainly on the demand and the supply of foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market, that is to say market factors.However, this does not mean that the National Bank has completely left the market
– l & 39;
According to him, the strategy and the principles stipulate that the National Bank will use foreign exchange interventions for:
– accumulation of international reserves
– Prevention of abrupt changes in the exchange rate of the hryvnia (as last week when the National Bank intervened in the sale of foreign currency)
– Maintaining the transmission of a key rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. In this context, the exchange rate of the hryvnia is more dependent on the non-cash segment, since the volume of transactions in the non-monetary sector is larger than that of cash, in particular, in June, the volume of sales. non-cash foreign currency banks exceeded the relevant indicator for cash by 6 times and the volume of purchases was 4.3 times ", – adds Danylyshyn.
At the same time, he points out that in recent years In foreign currency, the supply of foreign exchange exceeds the demand, that is to say that the population sells more currency than it buys, which should to strengthen the hryvnia
As pointed out the representative of the BNU, about the aforesaid determinant in the formation of the hryvnia.Ukraine Market.
"Demand and supply of foreign exchange essentially reflect the state of the country's economy and its financial system. Thus, in Ukraine, there is a shortage of some goods of domestic production, which is covered by the purchase of imported products. This translates into increased imports and, as a result, foreign currency outflows from the country, which should be covered by export earnings. Otherwise, the foreign exchange deficit will be covered by the influx of foreign currency through financial transactions that are reflected in the balance of payments of the financial account ", – convinces the expert.
At the same time, he notes that the external economic situation remains favorable, Ukrainian export products are high
This has led to an increase in exports of goods and, as a result, to foreign currency inflows into Ukraine, but the growth in world prices of As a result, imports of goods in January-May 2018 increased by 14.3% to $ 21.1 billion, while the balance of current account balance was due to Increased imports of petroleum products and natural gas – May 2018 was negative, however, it was covered with excess revenue on the financial account. ant is covered by revenue in the balance of payments financial account,
– notes the head of P According to him, the contraction of long-term world trade will affect the economy and the currency market of the country. 39, Ukraine, and as for the outflow of capital from Ukraine, in recent years our country has not experienced a boom in investment, which, for its part, has predetermined its lesser vulnerability to capital outflows and external shocks.
"It should also be noted that migrants are still a major source of foreign currency inflows into Ukraine".
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