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Southern armed invasion by Ukraine and increased pressure on Belarus: only a few destabilizing stages on the world stage that Russian President Vladimir Putin can cross.
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Such a prediction was made by Michael Carpenter, a former Pentagon member and head of the Biden Center for Diplomacy, on his social networking page.
In particular, according to Carpenter, it is likely that Putin will adventure in a military invasion of Ukraine in order to take control of the South. the Roman Canal, the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait
"Most likely, the goal will be a canal going from the Dnieper to the Crimea.For this water, Crimean agriculture in would suffer, "he wrote.
Moreover, according to him, European sanctions against Russia will gradually collapse after one of the EU members broke the consensus in exchange for a non-binding agreement. public with Russia in the energy sector. "The most likely candidates are: Hungary, Italy and Austria," said Mr Carpenterner.
The pressure exerted by Russia on its Belarusian counterpart to President Alexander Lukashenko should also be strengthened in order to obtain permission to build a Russian military base in that country. Other forecasts include the military exacerbation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the establishment of a control of Syria's cooperation with the East after the withdrawal of US forces, the strengthening of the Russian military presence in Libya, promoting the arrival in power of Islamic Islamism of Afghanistan, the Kremlin ready to implement the Anschluss of Belarus. Taliban, which is trying to provoke another ethnic conflict in the Balkans and strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia.
In addition, it is highly likely that Putin will also strive to inform wash under a balance of power in the US presidential campaign by 2020.
Moreover, recently, the president from Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has proposed not to call Russia a brother country. The Belarussian leader made a statement at the meeting on topical issues concerning cooperation with Moscow.
We also recall that on December 20, President Vladimir Putin approved the military doctrine of the State of the Union, which includes the Russian Federation and Belarus ]. At the same time, the Kremlin said that the possibility of a unification of Russia and Belarus was not discussed at the moment.
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