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Steve Gutterman
On July 16, Helsinki, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold their first plenary meeting since the American president took office a year and a half ago. What can we expect from this summit?
First, what we can not expect: a major breakthrough in agreements with firm commitments to meet them
Why?
Because Putin is not necessary, and Trump, apparently can not afford to accept such an agreement with the leader of his enemies, that his own administration has accused of "l & # 39; malicious activity "against the United States and the West
without breakthroughs
The victory of the President of Russia is the meeting itself at such a meeting already at the very beginning of the term of Trump expired p in the context of tightening sanctions and investigations in the United States on Moscow's interference in the election on which Trump won. And now, this summit finally puts Putin back to the negotiating table with the leader of the former former superpower of the Cold War, but also in a place as remarkable as Helsinki
Trump arrives in Finland, overwhelmed by these investigations – who are also discovering, if his presidential campaign for a conspiracy with Russia continued – as well as questions about his past eulogy of Putin and worries in the West that he might conclude agreements more advantageous for Moscow than for the United States and its allies. Here is a good indicator of the unusual atmosphere of the radical atmosphere: an article in the New York newspaper with the question "What if Trump is a valuable asset of Russia since 1987?"
"To Putin, all that will not be an obvious failure will be a success, and for Trump all that will not be an obvious victory will be interpreted by the critics as failure, so there will be no firm commitments ", – says in the Russian analysis About the publication of "Vedomosti."
"Breakthroughs, as at the meeting of the leaders of the United States and the USSR in Reykjavik in 1986, of course, should not wait (and Putin with Trump – not Gorbachev with Reagan)" -. recalling a meeting that is considered a turning point in the Cold War.
The Carnegie Foundation for International Peace also concluded that the summit was unlikely to bring about fundamental change. "The chances of resetting are very low, and the current state of relations between Moscow and Washington will continue," they write.
The two sides have already taken steps to suppress hope
For example, US National Security Adviser John Bolton Putin in Moscow to negotiate with Trump said that "the very fact of the summit is important". And Trump said on July 12 that the summit would be "just a free meeting" which he "does not expect so much."
Pressure or Flattery
And Trump and Putin obviously want to turn the page in a relationship and look for a particular result – even as modest as a mere statement. So, signatures to words and official statements, if they want, they will watch the "Donald and Volodymyr show" looking for signs indicating where the two presidents want to go to try to correct these tight relationships.
Trump's approach to Putin – In the context of Russia's accusations of interference in the election in his favor and Trump's virulent criticism of the Western Allies in the controversy over Summits of the Group of Seven and NATO, he is respectful to Putin, that he is demanding, that he be filled with flattery or that he is doing a lot of pressure. "
" Relations between the United States and Russia, reaching the lowest level since the cold war, can be used to improve the state. This can be done by the summit, but only if Trump will be disciplined in the preparations for the meeting and in relations with Putin, "wrote Steven Pifer on July 2, independent researcher at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC (he was also ambassador American in Ukraine.) 19659004] "A successful summit in Helsinki demands that Trump openly oppose Putin in areas where Russia behaves badly," writes Pifer. wants to earn Putin's respect Crimea
One of the biggest problems is Crimea
Trump put Kiev on the verge of consternation and surprised European allies when he hinted that He might consider recognizing Russia's claims to the Crimea, which Moscow seized in Ukraine in 2014. On the presidential plane on June 29, he told reporters: "We will have to see." [19659009] Declarations on Crimea by Donald Trump – on this picture he and the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko raised concerns in Kiev ” src=”https://gdb.rferl.org/5F8585FA-AA5F-4D1A-8A9B-F102C6932EC3_w250_r1_s.jpg”/>
