Among the predictions of last year, the collapse of bitcoin was partially true.
Among the shock forecast of Saxo Bank, the economic slowdown in 2019 in Germany, the purchase of the electric car manufacturer Tesla of Apple, the "repayment of debts" in the EU and the release of the leader of Fedorzerv in the United States. [196593]] According to Wall Jakobsen, Chief Economist of Saxo Bank, the forecasts combine a common theme: "There is a limit to everything". The world must wake up and start the reforms – not because it wants to, but because there is simply no other way, he said.
Such predictions are published for 16 consecutive years. Saxo Bank attracts investors not only for big trends, but also for unlikely events (the "black swans"), which can dramatically change the world's image if it becomes reality.
The bank always stressed that the forecasts were not official. One of them, planned in case of authentication, will have a noticeable effect on the financial landscape or world politics.
2018 partially true two of the unlikely predictions: of the collapse of bitcoins after rapid growth and the explosion of volatility.
Apple to buy Tesla [19659008] Apple to buy electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla Inc.
According to economists at Saxo Bank, Apple would understand that the next logical limit would be cars, specifically electric cars and air vehicles without pilot because digital technologies are entering the car. The industry is becoming more active.
Saxo Bank
Meanwhile, Tesla is sorely lacking in funding. Apple will buy Tesla at a premium of 40% – at a price of $ 520 per share, or $ 100 more than the price announced earlier by Ilon Mask, said Peter Garry, head of strategy Saxo Bank at the Stock Exchange .
This agreement will expand Tesla's capabilities, enable it to build new plants in Europe and China and become a renewed automotive leader.
Germany will face an economic slowdown
Germany, which has been a world leader for several decades, is struggling to assimilate the latest technologies. However, the car, the pearl of the German economy and providing up to 14% of GDP, ceases to be a driver of progress.
Germany expected 2018 to increase the number of car sales, but will eventually sell only 81 million. only 2% more than in 2017.
Saxo Bank
By 2040, 55% of new car sales in the world and 33 % of the park will be electric vehicles. But Germany is only beginning to switch to electric vehicles, with a delay of several years, and the rigidity of import duties in the United States will not improve the situation of exports or chains of electricity. German supply, notes Jacobsen.
2019 will reach the pinnacle of anti-globalization sentiment in Germany, and the focus will be mainly on costs. , the internal market and production, as well as the wider use of large amounts of data and the reduction of environmental pollution.
Trump will end the independence of the US central bank
US President Donald Trump will release his chairman of the Federal Reserve (FRS), Jerome. Powell, Ending the Independence of the US Central Bank
In December 2018, Fedreserv will again raise the basic interest rate, increase which will be the last drop for Trump and for the next year. US economy, predicts department head with Saxo Bank Treasures on the John Guardian currency market. Under this hypothetical scenario, US GDP growth will slow considerably and the stock market will fall in the first quarter of next year.
Saxo Bank
The stock will be in a trough before the summer, and the curve The profitability of US Treasuries will be completely reversed. Angry, President Trump frees Powell and nominates Nile Kashkari, chief of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve
Ambitious Kashkari is the most consistent advocate of the Fed's interest rate cuts and criticism of US monetary policy. He is much more comfortable with the idea that the Fed should serve the interests of the government and is making every effort to prepare Mr. Trump for the success of the presidential election in the second term of 2020.
The European Union will clear its debts
The history of the world shows that humanity is inclined to cancel debts more often than we suppose. Thus, the European Union in 2019 can overcome the opportunities lost during the previous debt crisis, says Saxo Bank economist Christopher Dembick. Between the world wars, the debt relief of France reached 50% of GDP, Italy by 36% and Britain by 24%.
In 2019, excessive debt, activation of populist movements, rise in interest rates due to reduction of injections / currency cuts
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Germany and in other countries of old Europe, who do not want the eurozone to collapse, there is no choice but to support debt monetization The Economic and Monetary Union is extending the powers of the ECB to monetize debt at all levels above 50% of the GDP of each participating country, and more than 50% of GDP will be guaranteed by the Eurobonds of special fund.
The world will give up GDP
The IMF and the World Bank will announce the It is intended to put an end to GDP growth and to focus on productivity.
The world will give up GDP
The IMF and the World Bank will announce their intention to stop measuring GDP and focus on productivity. 19659003] At the spring meeting, the leaders of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as leading economists from the Pinelopi Goldberg and Guita Hopinat organizations, will make an unexpected statement about the intention to end the stature. GDP.
They will indicate that GDP does not reflect the real impact on the environment. advanced high technology services and environmental issues. The terrible effects of pollution on human health and the environment in India, China and many other countries around the world are a striking clue.
Saxo Bank
At the same time, productivity is optimized. one of the most popular economic concepts, but the least studied. If we give the simplest definition, it is the quantity of products manufactured in one hour of work. In the real world, however, productivity is a much more complex concept. Essentially, it can be considered as the most important factor that determines the evolution of the standard of living over time.
An unprecedented decision by the IMF and the World Bank will also be the symbol of a break with the dominance of central banks in the context of a decline in global labor productivity after the financial crisis of 2008.
Netflix collapses
The US corporate bond market is expecting the "domino effect" of 2019, predicting Garnrie as part of "shock projections".
It all starts with the fact that General Electric (GE) about continuing to lose credibility in the credit markets, the price of its debt insurance will rise above 600 basis points. Among the investors, the panic will spread because of the $ 60 billion extension of GE's debt while reducing the cash flow of the company.
A wave of panic will affect a large number of companies, including Netflix, whose investors will suddenly cover the concerns because of the appalling correlation that exists between its companies. funds borrowed. Netflix's Net Debt Net Debt / Net Debt to EBITDA ratio is 3.4 times and the balance sheet to more than $ 10 billion. The cost to attract double Netflix financing, which significantly reduces the growth of content and reduces the price of its stock of shares.
Saxo Bank
The situation is further aggravated by the entry of Disney in 2019 in the video streaming market, further hampering the growth of Netflix .
The chain reaction of the US corporate bond market entails considerable uncertainty about the high profits of the viruses and, therefore, the "black Tuesday" stock market investment funds that follow the evolution of the high-yield market in the United States.
ETF issues become an alarm signal for all passive investment instruments, indicating their negative impact on the markets.
Pound / Dollar Parity
British Prime Minister Teresa May will not be able to negotiate an exit from the European Union (Brexit) through Parliament and until the date of Brexit – 29 March 2019 – the country will go without a laugh ready to save. In such a case, it will be necessary to re-elect, for which the Labor Party will win a decisive victory thanks to the promise to implement progressive global reforms and the organization of the second referendum on Brexit. Jeremy Corbin will be Prime Minister.
According to Saxo Bank's makro strategy, Kai van Petersen, in this case, the Corbina Labor government will adhere to the "middle-class socialist land" strategy to eliminate glaring inequalities in British society. 19659003] New sources of tax revenue will be actively used. Corbin will introduce the UK's first progressive real estate tax aimed at raising funds from wealthy citizens and will ask the Bank of England to support the financing of a new "regime of quantitative easing of the people. "or unconditional basic income. "class =" img img-responsive center-block "data-src =" https://img.tsn.ua/cached/1543920125/tsn-471c1e8f46d3594337c6f6226982b912/thumbs/x/ba/44/89179c621735c67598e7153546a144ba.jpeg "/>
Saxo Bank
The renationalization of utilities and railways is awaiting Britain and tax incentives will lead to an increase in budget deficits of up to 5% of GDP.
Outbreaks of inflation, commercial investment will begin. businesses will be reduced and foreign nationals living in the United Kingdom will seek safer shelter with huge capital
The pound will face a double threat: a huge budget deficit and a current account balance of payments, as well as that a lack of investment due to an unsolved problem. exit from the EU. The exchange rate of the British currency, expressed in dollars, will come out of the $ 1.30 zone, where it was mainly in the second half of 2018, and will fall by more than 20%, at parity – for the first time in the year. History of the pound sterling, one dollar only.
Australia nationalizes banks
Australia is the only country to have managed to avoid a collapse of the real estate market during the global crisis of 2008, but the situation in the country is far from being perfect, says the strategist Elinor Kri of Saxo Bank.
According to his scenario, 2019 The year will end Australian surpluses in the property market and the country will face a real catastrophe caused by a sharp decline in loan growth rates.
Saxo Bank
A royal commission will be created to evaluate the performance of banks, which will lead to a lack of liquidity. For the first time in 27 years, the country will be affected by the economic downturn, as a sharp decline in real estate prices will undermine the household's financial situation and consumer spending.
In addition, all of the above will also result in a sharp decline in investment in housing. A significant increase in the proportion of bad debts will reduce the profitability and profits of the banks. Their losses will be so great that companies will no longer be able to cover them themselves and will be de facto nationalized.
The world will introduce a tax on transport
In the event of a suitable coincidence, a new world transportation tax will be introduced in 2019 – compensation for the cost of airline tickets and the tonnage of ships [19659004] The world is still waiting for a year of weather disasters – the summer in Europe is again very hot – causing extreme panic in the capitals of different countries. International aviation and shipping, enjoying significant tax privileges, will be the target of a new tax.
Its rate will be linked to the amount of CO2 emissions, according to Harnrey and Jacobsen. This rate is US $ 50 per tonne of CO2 emissions, twice as high as the level previously proposed and three times higher than the average amount of 2018 (EUR 15 per tonne) for the European System. emission trading
<img src = "https://img.tsn.ua/cached/1543920124/tsn-471c1e8f46d3594337c6f6226982b912/thumbs/x/8a/4a/f9aee954c7251b95c429cb15f68c4a8a.jpeg" alt = "by Saxo Bank Shock Projections for 2019_7 [19659073] Saxo Bank
A new tax raises the price of air tickets and sea freight, which in turn leads to an increase in the general price level.
United States and China have already opposed fuel taxes in aviation, citing Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation in the 19th century.However, China will now change position in the framework of its fight against pollution of the environment
The actions and obligations tourism, aviation and shipping companies will fall sharply in a context of increased uncertainty and slowing down.
The spots on the sun will cause losses of $ 2 trillion
In the near future Even the Sun can turn against investors, warns Gardy
In 2019, the 25th cycle of activity solar is launched, the Earth is not very lucky and the solar storm falls in the Western Hemisphere.
Saxo Bank
How much will it cost? Most satellites that are not located on the planet side will be destroyed, depending on the GPS transport domain and the electrical infrastructure, incredible chaos will occur. About $ 2 trillion, according to Saxo Bank. In 2013, with the support of Lloyds Bank, a study of the potential financial risks caused by solar storms was conducted, the worst case scenario being then the assumption of a 20% increase in damage.
The most significant sighting history of the year 1859 was the geomagnetic storm of Carrinton – X40 in the modern classification. By this means, telegraph systems throughout North America and Europe have been refused. The Nordic glow could be observed on a white day, even in Cuba.
