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A total of 3.8 million people were receiving traditional state benefits during the week ending March 20. If you include federal programs to help the unemployed get through the health crisis, 18.2 million people were receiving some form of unemployment assistance in the week that ended. March 13. This is down from 19.7 million the previous week.
Economists are monitoring weekly jobless claims for the first signs of the direction of the labor market. Applications generally reflect the layoff rate, which normally declines steadily as the labor market strengthens. During the pandemic, however, the numbers have become less reliable as states grappling with backlogs and allegations of fraud have cast a shadow over the actual volume of job cuts.
Even so, measurements of the overall economy show a marked improvement from last spring’s collapse, with increasing numbers of vaccinations encouraging people to return to airports, malls, restaurants and bars. The number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 has fallen from an average of around 250,000 per day in early January to less than 70,000, although it has started to rise again in recent days.
Last month, consumer confidence hit a post-pandemic high. And checks for $ 1,400 from President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion economic relief plan have dramatically increased consumer spending, according to Bank of America’s tracking of its debit and credit cards. Spending jumped 23% in the third week of March from pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.
And even with the pace of layoffs still relatively high, hiring has started to pick up. In February, employers added 379,000 strong jobs across the country. Last month, it is believed they added even more: According to data firm FactSet, economists expect the March jobs report released on Friday to show the economy added a significant 614,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6%. . Less than a year ago, the unemployment rate reached 14.8%.
Some economists are even more optimistic: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consultancy RSM, predicts 1 million more jobs for March.
Federal Reserve policymakers have significantly revised up their forecasts for the economy this year, forecasting 6.5% growth for 2021, from a December estimate of just 4.2%. It would be the fastest rate of expansion of any year since 1984.
“With immunization efforts seemingly increasing day by day, hope may finally be on the horizon,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Getting the public health situation back to normal is the only way to stop the economic damage from the coronavirus. . A robust recovery can only thrive once the virus is under control. “
Yet the economic impact of the pandemic persists. Data firm Womply reports that 63% of cinemas and other entertainment venues were closed last week, as were 39% of bars and 39% of hair salons and other beauty salons.
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