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Yields of corn and soybeans in the United States are increasing slightly as trade expected, according to USDA crop production and September supply and demand reports on Friday.
As a result, the CME Group’s corn and soybean markets first reacted negatively and then turned positive.
At the close, corn futures in December ended up 7 1/2 to $ 5.17 3/4. March futures closed up 7 1/4 ¢ at $ 5.26 3/4. May corn futures were 6 1/2 higher at $ 5.31.
November soybean futures ended up 16 ¢ to $ 12.86.
Soybean futures in January were 16 ¢ higher at $ 12.94. Soybean futures in March closed 15-1 / 2 higher at $ 12.99.
Wheat futures in December closed 3 3/4 lower at $ 6.88.
Soybean meal futures in December ended at $ 4.60 per short ton up to $ 342.50.
Soybean oil futures in December closed down $ 0.20 to 55.99 a pound.
In foreign markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 1.57 higher (+ 2.30%) at $ 69.71. The US dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials is 79 points (-0.23%) lower at 34,799 points.
CROP PRODUCTION UNITED STATES 2021/22
In its report, the USDA pegged US corn production at 14.99 billion bushels against trade expectations of 14.9 billion and the previous estimate of 14.75 billion bushels.
The average US corn yield was set at 176.3 bushels per acre against trade expectations of 175 bushels per acre and the previous USDA estimate of 174.6.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged production at 4.37 billion bushels against trade expectations of 4.3 billion and the August government estimate of 4.33.
For yield, the soybean average is set at 50.6 bushels / acre against trade expectations of 50.4 bushels / acre and the government’s previous estimate of 50.0.
2020/2021 AMERICAN FINAL STOCK
For corn, the USDA has pegged the ending stocks of the old US crops at 1.18 billion bushels against the trade estimate of 1.16 billion bushels and the USDA estimate for the month of August. to 1.11 billion.
For soybeans, US ending stocks were 175 million bushels compared to the August estimate of 160 million bushels. The trade expected the USDA to print 166 million bushels today.
US closing actions 2021/2022
For corn, the USDA set the ending stocks for the new U.S. crop at 1.40 billion bushels against the trade estimate of 1.3 billion bushels and the August estimate of 1.24 billion bushels. bushels.
For soybeans, US closing stocks were 185 million bushels compared to trade which expected the USDA to print 190 million bushels today. In August, the USDA estimate was 155 million.
In its report, the USDA pegged ending stocks for U.S. wheat at 615 million bushels against trade expectations of 616 million and against the August estimate of 627 million bushels.
2021/2022 Global Closing Stocks
USDA on Friday pegged global corn ending stocks at 297.6 mmt. compared to trade expectations of 286.0 mmt. and the USDA August estimate of 284.0 mmt.
For soybeans, global ending stocks are estimated at 98.9 mmt. compared to the expectations of the trade of 96.8 mmt. and the USDA August estimate of 96.2 mmt.
For wheat, the USDA set global ending stocks at 283.2 mmt. against the expectation of the trade of 279.0 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 279.1 mmt.
Harvested area in the United States
In its report, the USDA set the harvested area of corn in the United States in 2021 at 85.08 million against trade expectations of 85.0 and the NASS estimate in August of 84.4 million.
For soybeans, the U.S. area in 2021 is set at 86.4 million against trade expectations of 86.7 and the NASS August estimate of 86.7 million.
WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION 2020/2021
The USDA on Thursday pegged Brazilian soybean production 2020/2021 at 137.0 mmt against the USDA estimate last month of 137.0 mmt.
For maize, Brazil’s production is estimated at 87.0 mmt. compared to the expectations of the trade of 92.0 mmt. and the USDA July estimate of 93.0 mmt.
For Argentina’s soybean production, the USDA has set its crop at 46.0 mmt. vs. USDA’s July estimate of 46.5 mmt.
Argentina’s maize crop for 2020/2021 is set at 48.5 mmt against the previous USDA estimate of 48.5 mmt.
COMMERCIAL REACTION
Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, said this report came as no surprise to the trade.
“Today’s WASDE is highly dependent on production and inventory levels in China, which means that the true amount of global stocks, especially wheat and corn, is likely to be viewed with skepticism by markets. . Prices haven’t really reacted much to the increase in US stocks, corn area and yields, mainly because the reported levels were largely anticipated in advance, ”Gilbertie said.
Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group said the USDA report sparked a “sell the rumor and buy the fact” day of trading.
“The reports were bearish and the markets were down after the report was released. But the market was expecting a bearish report, so buying after the report was released pushed futures up higher,” Scoville said.
Jason Roose, US Commodities, says today’s USDA crop report was different from months in a technically oversold market.
“The numbers alone were negative for the prices in all categories. Production increased for corn and soybeans, yield for corn and soybeans increased from last month and an increase of 4.3 bushels for corn from last year and a slight increase for soy. In addition, global ending stocks have also increased for corn, soybeans and wheat, ”Roose said.
Roose added, “The late rains and mild weather gave us these best potential numbers. Volatility will always be a daily event with many factors and uncertainties ahead, the direction of the dollar, actual yield reports, southern weather. -African and demand from China, everything will give us the next price support or resistance. ”
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