US Coronavirus: New Model Predicts US Covid-19 Cases to Almost Double in Next Two Months

Some experts have predicted that health workers – already overwhelmed and exhausted – may soon face tough decisions about rationing care as hospitals reach capacity.

And as the numbers continue to rise, hundreds more Americans will lose their lives every day to the virus. More than 10,000 people have died last week, many of them alone and without the chance to say goodbye to loved ones.

Expert: The safest thing you can do this week is stay home

Things will get worse in the coming weeks, before they start to improve with the help of potential vaccines, experts have warned.

Speaking in a live interview with the Washington Post on Monday, Dr Anthony Fauci urged Americans to reconsider their Thanksgiving trips as cases pour into the United States – and warned of what could follow .

“We are in a very strong escalation of cases right now in mid-fall,” he said. “If in fact you’re in a situation where you’re doing the things that increase risk – travel, rally settings, not wearing masks – there’s a good chance you will see a push superimposed on a push. “

This week, he said, “the safest thing you can do is leave the activities of your own to the immediate occupants of this house.”

It’s a suggestion that was echoed by experts, health officials, and local and state leaders across the country in the last few weeks leading up to the holidays.

Alabama’s senior doctor said Monday that ahead of the holidays “our numbers are worse than they have ever been” and urged residents to think about the most vulnerable members of their community when preparing. of their vacation plans.

“The kind of Thanksgiving we have will go a long way in determining what December looks like, what our holiday season will be like,” said Dr. Scott Harris, state health officer. “Are we going to be here in a month trying to have the same conversation?”

“I really, really hope not.”

‘Buy a better mask’

In the midst of the crisis, Americans can take one simple step to protect themselves, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration: “Buy a better mask.”

“While there are still shortages of medical masks, healthcare workers have dedicated supply chains,” Gottlieb wrote in a Wall Street Journal editorial on Sunday. “It’s time to revise the advice for consumers.”

N95 masks and their equivalents offer the best protection against the virus, he wrote, and will filter out at least 95% of infectious particles. Their equivalents include the KN95 from China and the FFP2 from Europe.

Surgical masks offer about 60% protection, Gottlieb said. But quality matters.

“A real medical procedure mask will be cleared by the Food and Drug Administration and designated as offering one of three levels of protection. Usually a level 2 or 3 medical mask is best,” he wrote.

Sheet masks are the least protective, but if they are the only option, they should be thick, snug, and made from cotton-polyester blends.

“It will be difficult to slow the current cycle of spread. But encouraging Americans to wear better quality masks is a simple step that could make a difference,” he wrote.

In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper announced he was tightening the state’s mask requirement to make it clear that “everyone must wear a mask whenever they are with someone who is not. not from the same household ”.

The governor’s new order will also require masks in public indoor spaces even when residents maintain a six-foot distance, gymnasiums during exercise, all schools, and all public or private transportation when residents travel with people in outside their home. The order will also require large retail companies to place an employee near entrances to ensure customers wear masks and meet occupancy limits.

“I have a stern warning for the North Carolinians today: we are in danger,” Cooper said in a statement. This is a pivotal moment in our fight against the coronavirus. Our actions will now determine the fate of many. “

28% increase in child cases over 2 weeks

It is not just adults who are infected at rapidly increasing rates.

There were more than 256,000 new cases of Covid-19 reported in children between November 5 and 19, according to a joint report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.

This means that as of November 19, nearly 1.2 million children had tested positive for the virus since the start of the pandemic – representing nearly 12% of all Covid-19 cases in states that report infections by age. The report’s figures come from 49 states, New York, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam.

The report comes as more leaders across the country have started closing schools amid an upsurge in cases.

The Metro Nashville Public School District announced Monday that schools will return from Thanksgiving break to fully virtual learning, and will remain so for the remainder of the semester.

“This is a serious and dramatic public health emergency that requires all of us to renew our vigilance and take the necessary safety precautions to ensure our safety, that of our families, friends and those whom we. can meet through wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding large gatherings as much as possible – especially indoors. ”

FDA asks vaccine advisory committee to meet twice next month

Meanwhile, as state leaders navigate the weeks ahead, a potential vaccine candidate could be on the way.

The FDA has now asked members of its vaccine advisory committee to set aside Dec. 17-18 for meetings, presumably to discuss the vaccine being developed by Moderna, according to a source familiar with the process.

The FDA consults its Advisory Committee on Vaccines and Related Biologics before approving any vaccine – including a Covid-19 vaccine, for sale.

The FDA also called a committee meeting on December 10 to review Pfizer’s emergency use authorization application.

Moderna is awaiting more data on study participants who fell ill with the coronavirus and could apply to the FDA for emergency use clearance next week, according to a spokesperson for Moderna.

“In the next week or so, we expect to see efficacy data based on 151 cases of COVID-19 under our protocol and, if applicable, based on the data, to make an EUA submission shortly. after, “spokesman Ray Jordan told CNN.