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Taliban advance “is accelerating at an accelerating pace,” said a congressional source with knowledge of the intelligence, echoing concerns expressed by other officials who acknowledged that the security situation is deteriorating even faster than assessments previous ones have indicated.
While several sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments say Kabul faces an increased threat, especially on the outskirts of the province, they argue the capital is not at imminent risk of takeover, in part because the threat of US airstrikes and the size of the Taliban force. Kabul’s population has also grown significantly since the Taliban last took control of the city in the 1990s and its residents are deeply opposed to and fear the militant group.
U.S. intelligence agencies currently believe the Taliban could effectively choke off the Afghan government’s import supply if they choose to do so and will likely surround much of the country in the near future, a source familiar with the assessments told CNN. .
In addition, these sources claim that Taliban fighters could potentially move to the capital once they are convinced the outcome would be positive.
One concern is that the Taliban may soon have the capacity to besiege Kabul, forcing Afghan troops to fight or surrender. Members of the Afghan security forces have already surrendered to the Taliban in cities and provinces across the country.
“They may not even have to take the risk of establishing fighting positions around Kabul, they may just have to move, when they are closer to thinking that victory is assured, “said the source close to the assessments.
But others warn that the Taliban are currently unable to seize Kabul militarily.
The growing urgency around a possible Taliban takeover poses a challenge to President Joe Biden, whose critics warn the United States could face a “Saigon moment,” a reference to the demoralizing rush of 1975 when the United States withdrew its last troops from Vietnam.
If the Afghan capital were threatened immediately, the United States would face a difficult decision as to when and how to evacuate the American personnel still stationed there.
Evacuation plans and resources exist. The choice facing US officials now is between an orderly withdrawal or something more hasty and precarious.
Although assessments related to the timing of the Taliban’s efforts vary, U.S. officials have made it clear that it is widely accepted that the group intends to establish itself as the country’s main governing body.
National ambitions
“It is clear from what they are doing that they have designs of governance certainly at the national level. It is clear from what they are doing that they believe there is a military solution at the end of this. conflict, ”Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. this week.
U.S. intelligence officials are closely monitoring the security situation on the ground as forecasts for Afghanistan’s stability have grown increasingly dire over time.
US intelligence, military commanders and members of Congress are all warning that the Afghan government cannot stand up to the Taliban without the support of US firepower. The Taliban have already moved quickly to take control of districts in northern Afghanistan, leading US military commanders to raise the prospect of civil war once US troops leave.
The Taliban took control of four border crossings last month and others remain disputed, a development that has fueled concerns over the group’s control over the flow of resources in and out of the country, three sources told CNN.
For now, the Taliban have kept these locations open and are currently able to collect import-export fees from cross-border trade in Afghanistan, one of the sources said.
The Afghan government sees the threat posed by the Taliban’s efforts to seize border crossings and is training special units to protect them, another source told CNN.
Yet it is unclear how successful these units will be.
The Afghan forces tasked with holding the notorious “Freedom Bridge” border with Uzbekistan in recent weeks have failed to hold it, despite reinforcements and security rings around the border and access towns. proximity.
U.S. officials are also concerned, with the first source telling CNN that by controlling these areas, the Taliban could effectively stifle the Afghan government’s access to imports or redirect resources to any location they choose.
Kabul as the last stop
For now, however, the risk of an imminent Taliban takeover of Kabul is low, according to sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments.
One reason is that Kabul would be the Taliban’s last stop and would likely target large population centers before advancing to the capital, one of those sources said.
The second is that the Biden administration has told Afghan officials that if major population centers are threatened, they will engage tactically through airstrikes, providing assurances that the United States will take action to protect Kabul if necessary in the interests of their own national security, the source adds.
Yet U.S. officials remain concerned about the growing momentum of the Taliban’s advance and the information vacuum caused by a decline in intelligence gathering capacity in recent months.
Without a clear picture of what is happening on the ground, some officials fear the United States may not be able to respond appropriately to indications that the Taliban is preparing to advance in the capital.
And while closing the US embassy in Kabul would be one of the most extreme measures taken, the Biden administration has also made it clear that it will not put up with a moment in Saigon, raising questions about what will come next. in the weeks and months to come.
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