US, Iran step up military activities as concerns rise ahead of anniversary of Soleimani’s murder

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Iran on Thursday called on the UN Security Council to prevent the United States from carrying out what it called increased “military adventurism” in the Gulf and Arabian Sea, including sending nuclear bombers in the region, declaring that he did not want conflict but that he would. defend yourself if necessary.

Meanwhile, a US official with first-hand knowledge of the latest intelligence told CNN on Friday that some Iranian maritime forces in the Gulf have increased their readiness levels over the past 48 hours. Earlier this week, defense officials told CNN that new intelligence showed Iran had moved short-range ballistic missiles into Iraq.

With the acceleration of military activity comes rhetoric. Iranian elite military force chief Quds suggested on Friday that retaliation for US crimes could come from “people back home.” President Donald Trump, who reportedly called for military options for dealing with Iran in November, tweeted last week that he would “hold Iran responsible” if Americans were killed.
And the Israeli media amplified an Arab newspaper article that quoted anonymous U.S. sources saying Israel and Saudi Arabia were pressuring Trump to strike Iranian nuclear facilities before he left office.

‘Really concerned’

The drumbeat of veiled threats, public messages and military postures accelerated in the days leading up to the Jan. 3 anniversary of General Qasem Soleimani’s assassination, a date that US officials fear Iran may have. mark while retaliating.

The concerns come as some analysts in Washington speculate that Trump could spark a conflict with Iran to distract from his unsuccessful and baseless attempts to reverse his electoral defeat and complicate his successor’s plans for the region. “I sincerely fear that the president is considering giving President-elect Biden some sort of military operation en route,” said Tom Nichols, an international affairs expert who teaches at the US Naval War College.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif himself accused Thursday that Trump creates a pretext for war.

This is all playing out as Biden prepares to adopt his own policies following his inauguration on January 20. The president-elect wants to ease Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, resume the commitment and return to the Iran nuclear deal, all the measures the Trump administration vehemently opposes – and all the reasons, according to some analysts, that if Iran carries out any kind of attack, it would be carefully calibrated.

“Iran poses a real threat to US national security, especially during this time of heightened risk due to the coming anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination,” said Sam Vinograd, former National Security Council official and analyst at CNN.

However, Vinograd added: “I think Iran will calibrate any attack associated with this anniversary because it does not want to confine itself until Biden takes office and the ostensible resumption of nuclear negotiations which would lead to the lifting of the sanctions. “

US says Iran-backed militias 'almost certainly' behind recent rocket attack near US embassy in Baghdad

US Central Command said last week that an attack on the international area of ​​Baghdad near the US embassy was “almost certainly carried out by a group of rogue militias backed by Iran.” On Friday, the Russian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Association announced that Iran would increase its uranium enrichment to levels it reached before the 2015 nuclear deal – a step that will likely be considered another provocation.

As time goes on January 3, Vinograd noted: “There is a lot of saber rattling going on.”

Soleimani’s successor on Friday marked the death of the former Quds Force commander by promising that “those who took part in this assassination and crime will not be safe on earth. It is final.” General Esmail Ghaani told the crowd gathered for a ceremony marking Soleimani’s death that “what they have seen so far has been only part of the revenge, but they should wait for a harsh revenge. The time and place will be determined by the dear Resistance Front.

Calling Trump a “foolish man” under the grip of Israel and Saudi Arabia, Ghaani warned that “it is possible, even from inside your own home, that someone can take revenge on your crime ”.

Nichols told CNN that tensions were mounting at a time when Trump sacked senior civilian leaders in the Pentagon, replacing them with acting officials “who are really not responding to anyone other than Donald Trump.”

Nichols also referred to complaints by Biden and his national security team that the Pentagon’s transition team was not adequately briefing them, including about the position of US forces abroad and the threats to which the United States are facing.

“Because there is no transparency and because we just have no way of knowing what the president is doing, I think there should be concerns,” Nichols said.

‘Twisted intelligence’

Vinograd raised another concern, telling CNN: “Trump and members of his team fabricated or distorted information, including about Iran, to serve personal or political purposes. It’s no secret that Iran’s strike has been on President Trump’s priority list for some time and with In 19 Days he may want to come out on a high. “

Nichols noted that “Iran is a real problem. I mean, the president may have to do something. … The problem here is that Donald Trump, given the way he has ruled for four years old, just hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt on these kinds of actions. ”

Iran called on the United Nations Secretary-General to help ease tensions on Thursday, calling for the United States to be compelled to respect international law and to stop “destabilizing” an “unstable region like the Persian Gulf”.

The letter from Iran’s ambassador to the UN cited the US shipment of advanced weapons to the region. The Defense Department sent armed B52 bombers to the area on Wednesday, after earlier announcing a nuclear submarine was in transit across the Gulf.

The United States also currently has several surface warships in the Persian Gulf capable of firing Tomahawk missiles and between 40,000 and 50,000 U.S. servicemen spread across the region, although many do not have a direct combat role, according to the U.S. Pentagon.

The Iranian letter said that if “Iran does not seek conflict, our ability and resolute determination to protect our people, to defend our security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and vital interests, as well as to answer for decisively any threat or use of force against Iran. should not be underestimated. ”

The US official with first-hand knowledge of the latest intelligence said some Iranian maritime forces in the Persian Gulf have increased their readiness levels over the past 48 hours, adding that it is not clear whether the measures are defensive or are the signals of an impending attack on American interests. .

The official said the United States does not believe Iranian maritime movements are typical of training at sea.

CNN’s Barbara Starr and Richard Roth contributed to this report.



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