"The positive sentiment sparked by OPEC cuts outweighs the bearish impact of the American shale boom," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. "They work."
Crude oil dropped to $ 42.53 a barrel on Christmas Eve. Other risk assets, including US equities, have rebounded since then, but not as much as oil.
This sudden drop, which canceled expectations for a tiny construction, pushed up oil prices in the United States. The global benchmark, Brent, rose 0.6% to $ 68 a barrel, its highest level in four months.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has selected shipments in the United States, which have the most accurate and up-to-date inventory data. This strategy aims to convince oil traders and analysts that the cuts are effective.
"Saudi Arabia is holding back the flows," Smith said.
OPEC was burned last year when it increased production after the US announced sanctions against Iran. But the Trump administration has granted waivers to major Iranian customers and has mitigated the impact of the sanctions.
"The OPEC will be very cautious about removing these production cuts too early," Smith said.
"It's surprising that he has not tweeted yet, everyone is waiting," Smith said.
Beyond the tweets, Trump could influence the oil market by ordering his administration to renew waivers this spring, allowing Iranian customers to continue buying crude from the sanctioned country.