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The number of people living in the United States has grown at the slower rate over the past decade than in any other decade in American history, worrying demographers who see an aging population hamper long-term economic growth.
The country’s population has grown only 6.6% in the past decade, according to new estimates from the US Census Bureau released Tuesday, to around 329.2 million people. This growth rate is even lower than the 7.3% increase that occurred during the decade of the Great Depression.
Over the past few decades, the United States has added between about 10% and 17% to its population between census periods.
Last year, the United States added just about 1.1 million residents, a growth rate of 0.35% – the lowest since the Census Bureau began making annual estimates 120 years ago.
“These new census estimates reveal a nation struggling with demographic stagnation to a degree that it has not seen in some time,” said William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institute.
The slowing growth rates are the result of several overlapping phenomena, demographers said, both of which pose a threat to future growth.
One is an ongoing baby bust, in which the average American woman gives birth to fewer children and begins at an older age. The birth rate in the United States has fallen to its lowest level in 35 years, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The other is a substantial drop in the number of immigrants coming to the United States. Federal data shows that the number of immigrants who moved to America fell by about two-thirds between the late years of the Obama administration and the early years of the Trump administration, and recent census data suggests that the number of immigrants who settle has fallen further. Immigrants tend to be younger than the nation as a whole and more likely to have children.
The resulting confluence is an aging population which, as members of the baby boom generation age in retirement, will come to rely more on younger workers for their support – at the same time, the younger population will grow older. dries up.
“It’s a human resource problem. We need more people to be part of these younger populations, ”Frey told The Hill. “The aging of the population means more deaths, fewer births and makes immigration a much bigger factor.”
The last decade has accelerated a longer-term trend for Americans to move from the northeastern and rust belt states to the Sun Belt and western states. Sixteen states have lost population in the past year, and six states are smaller today than they were when the last census was completed ten years ago.
Illinois has seen an exodus of more than a quarter of a million people in the past decade, according to new census estimates. Almost one in 25 West Virginia residents has moved in the past decade. New York, Connecticut, and Vermont have all lost their populations, as has Mississippi.
Thirteen states and the District of Columbia have seen their populations explode by more than 10 percentage points in the past decade. The nation’s capital added more than 107,000 new residents, a peak of 17.8%, although this growth slowed towards the end of the decade. Utah’s population has also grown by over 17%.
No state has added more residents than Texas, where 4.1 million people have moved in the past ten years. Texas is expected to add three seats to its congressional delegation after the next redistribution round, according to recent estimates.
Florida and California have added more than 2 million people each over the past decade. But their relative trajectories are dramatically different: Florida added nearly a quarter of a million residents in the past year, an increase of about 1.1%. California experienced out-migration for the first time in its history, as nearly 70,000 residents left the state between 2019 and 2020.
Net emigration from California, Frey said, is likely a function of declining immigration rates during the Trump years. California residents have been leaving the state for years, but until recently they have been replaced at a faster rate by those from other countries.
Southern states have added more than 12 million people over the past decade, thanks to growth in Texas and Florida. Western states added 6 million people, while states like Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Colorado, Washington and Oregon all increased by more than 10 percentage points.
At the same time, the Midwestern states added just 1.4 million new residents and the Northeastern states added only half a million, a relative stagnation in areas that once housed a majority. Americans.
It is not immediately clear how the coronavirus pandemic may have slowed population growth. The new Census Bureau estimates lasted until July 1, 2020, about four months after the start of the pandemic, which means they could have slowed population growth and even some of the early deaths caused by the virus.
But longer-term trends in slowing population growth are enough to alarm demographers who are concerned about an aging population that relies on fewer young workers to maintain the social safety net.
“Growth is good anyway, but the decline in growth is going to focus on the young population and the younger workforce,” Frey said. “It means increased dependence with age.”
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