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The proposal calls on Iran to halt some of its nuclear activities, such as work on advanced centrifuges and 20% purity uranium enrichment, in exchange for relief from US economic sanctions, a said one of the people, who pointed out that details are still being worked out.
It is not at all certain that Iran will agree to the conditions. Earlier this year, Tehran rejected a U.S. proposal it deemed unacceptable and then came up with its own idea that Biden’s team had declared a non-runner, two people familiar with the situation said.
Still, officials in both countries are aware that if no breakthroughs take place over the next few weeks, not much will likely happen until September at the earliest, and that is if the deal can be salvaged from the all. The warnings come as progressives press Biden to join the deal and some officials and analysts question whether Biden is sincere about his stated desire to see the deal revived.
“Iran is set to blow additional restrictions on nuclear deals in the coming weeks. This is a crucial time to avoid an escalation of the situation, ”said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Association for the Control of Arms, an organization which has closely followed nuclear negotiations involving Iran.
One of the reasons for the sense of urgency among some US officials as well as those outside the US government is that Iran is holding presidential elections in June, with the election campaign starting in May. The politics surrounding the 2015 nuclear deal are very sensitive in Iran, so the theocratic regime is unlikely to allow major action as part of a campaign.
Separately, an important temporary agreement Iran has with the International Atomic Energy Agency will expire at the end of May. This temporary deal halted Iran’s efforts to restrict IAEA access to Iranian nuclear facilities. While the UN agency will still have access to Iran’s program, it will be less than what the world powers would like.
The US proposal expected to be presented this week is, “more than anything, to try to start the conversation” between the United States and Iran, one of those familiar with the situation said.
Asked for an official comment, a senior Biden administration official declined to discuss details of the diplomatic conversations: “We have made it clear that we are ready to pursue a mutual return to peace. [Iran deal]Added the official. “We were also open to talking with our [international] partners… on how best to achieve this, including through a series of initial and mutual steps. We have explored options for doing this, including with indirect conversations through our European partners. “
In an e-mail, Shahrokh Nazemi, the head of the press section of the Iranian mission to the United Nations, said that the “return of the United States to [deal] does not need a specific proposal. It only requires a political decision by the United States to move towards full and immediate implementation of its obligations under “the agreement and a key UN resolution.”
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, not for bomb building.
The United States and Iran have been exchanging ideas on how to restart negotiations for several weeks, mainly using intermediaries in Europe. There have been no direct talks between the United States and Iran, people familiar with the situation said.
Earlier this year, the United States suggested giving Iran access to a small amount of its billions of dollars in frozen assets in exchange for stopping its 20 percent uranium enrichment by the ‘Iran, one of the people confirmed.
Tehran refused what it saw as an unequal offer. In response, he suggested he would stop uranium enrichment for a month in exchange for the United States lifting all of its sanctions. The US side saw this more as a cheeky retort than a serious counter-proposal, the person said.
The 2015 agreement, which was negotiated by several countries, lifted a series of US and international economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for severe restrictions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. In 2018, then-President Donald Trump scrapped the deal, reimposing US sanctions and adding new ones. In response, Iran has taken several steps that put it out of compliance.
Biden and his top aides have said the United States will not lift its sanctions unless Iran reverts to sticking to the 2015 nuclear deal. The US administration has also said it wants to build on it. the initial agreement, by crafting a “longer and stronger” agreement that could cover topics outside of Iran’s nuclear program alone.
“The ball is really in their court to see if they want to take the diplomatic route and return to respect for the agreement,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently of the Iranians.
Iran, however, appears interested in simply restoring the original deal, which would give it the needed relief from the sanctions that have hurt its economy. He argues that, because the United States first withdrew from a working deal, the United States should take the first step in removing the sanctions.
In a recent interview with POLITICO magazine, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif downplayed the idea of follow-up negotiations, saying Tehran did not trust the United States after the Trump-era attempt to kill it. initial agreement.
“If the United States passes the test of [the 2015 deal], which doesn’t seem very likely, so we can look at other issues, ”Zarif added. “But I don’t think the United States would be ready to discuss these issues. Is the United States ready to reduce its arms deliveries to the region? “
People familiar with the situation say that the real issue right now is not who does what first. Rather, it’s about what each side should do or give up at this point if they are serious about bringing the two countries back into compliance.
“What is Tony Blinken or [National Security Adviser] Jake Sullivan has to say what the United States is prepared to do if Iran comes back into compliance, ”said Kimball of the Association for the Control of Arms. “It would provide an important public signal as to where the Biden administration wants this to go. The public posture of the Biden administration is currently very similar to that of the Trump administration, and that has not been encouraging for the Iranian side.
The next Iranian president could come from Iran’s more conservative political ranks. This element of Iranian society is more reluctant to make deals with the United States than those on the so-called reformist side of the spectrum. Outgoing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, whose administration helped craft the deal, was seen as closer to the reformist camp.
Iran’s state issues are ultimately decided by a cleric, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled the country for decades and is deeply suspicious of US intentions.
The United States severed diplomatic ties with Iran four decades ago as supporters of the Middle Eastern country’s Islamist revolution held dozens of Americans hostage at the United States Embassy in Tehran . The lack of diplomatic relations has long complicated US-Iran talks, and the nuclear negotiations involved secret talks brokered by the small country of Oman.
However, even if the next Iranian president, with Khamenei’s blessing, is open to discussions, he and his collaborators will need time to take office and catch up with the various files. The ensuing negotiations could take months, approaching when the elements of the original nuclear deal begin to expire.
Officials in the Biden administration are aware of the timetable but determined not to let it push them into a weak position, people familiar with the situation said.
Biden faces pressure from both left and right on how to tackle Iran. Progressive organizations have scheduled events this week to publicly call on Biden to return to the nuclear deal. At the same time, Republicans and some moderate and hawkish Democrats have made statements and sent letters to Biden urging him to stay tough on Iran and seek a better deal.
Biden himself, meanwhile, does not appear in any rush to restore the original deal, people familiar with the situation have said. The president is well aware that the public is more concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, and other issues. Additionally, having a Senate split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats also gives Biden less political leeway.
“He’s very comfortable with where we are,” said one person familiar with the situation. “Is he awake at night worrying about this?” He probably has other things that worry him more.
In a speech marking the Persian New Year earlier this month, Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said his country was also in no rush to return to honoring the deal.
“It’s not a question of who should be first,” he said, according to various media accounts. “The problem is, we trusted the Americans and fulfilled our commitments in the nuclear deal, but they didn’t.”
Earlier this year, debates took place within Biden’s team over whether to simply restore the original nuclear deal or move towards a larger, more expansive deal, with the option of an interim agreement en route. These divisions appear to have eased as the administration seeks a formula that will simply bring Iran back to the table.
The 2015 nuclear deal took several years to negotiate and involved the United States, then led by President Barack Obama, as well as Iran, China, Russia, Britain, Germany. and France.
Walking away from the deal, Trump argued that he has too many sunset clauses and should have covered aspects of Iran’s behavior beyond its nuclear program. Many Trump critics have said the real reason he left the deal was simply out of spite towards his predecessor, Obama.
European officials have since tried to salvage the deal, but it has been a challenge as their governments and private companies could also face US sanctions if they do business with Iran.
EU leaders attempted to organize an informal meeting between US and Iranian officials, which would likely have taken place earlier this month. But Iranian officials rejected the idea, saying “the time has not come. “
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