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Welcome to all. Thanksgiving is now in the rear-view mirror and the playoffs are upon us, so it's safe to say we're about to end up with the pumpkin pie of the 2018 football season.
Thanksgiving is always a good time to learn, not just for a delicate family dynamic. This year, I learned that the duck was an interesting substitute for turkey and that it was better to have two Thanksgiving dinners (the second was obvious). I also learned about fantasy football by sitting on the couch with a coma food, as you will discover in the words that follow.
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Melvin Gordon should not have played on his knee bum
The fantasy owners who selected Gordon at the turn (11th overall) in the snake ladies got one of the best values of the year, Gordon having accumulated the most fantasy points per game of all players other than QB other than Todd Gurley. If you've drafted Gordon, there's a good chance you'll be competing in the fantastic playoffs. But now it looks like it will not be available when you need it the most.
Gordon was unsure for the 12th week because of a "sore knee," but he convinced the coaching staff to let him play, even though the Chargers were big favorites at home against Arizona. As expected, the Chargers destroyed the Cardinals, and Gordon scored with two touchdowns, but that's where the good news ends. Gordon suffered a grade 2 KNE sprained knee and would miss aa few weeks. "
While the Chargers are well positioned for a playoff spot at 8-3, expect LA to be careful with Gordon and prioritize his health before the end of the regular season. In other words, if Gordon is almost certain to miss Week 14 (the first round of the fantastic playoffs in most leagues), there's a good chance that he's also missing out on Week 15 and maybe even week 16. It should obviously not be abandoned fantastic leagues, but it is quite possible that he has already played his final down this season for his fantastic owners.
If you own Gordon, you should handcuff him with Austin Ekeler, who has totaled over 100 yards and a touchdown with the increased chances he's had against Arizona. But it should also be noted that rookie Justin Jackson, who has been inactive more times than not this season, has received seven defeats against five for Ekeler.
It is too early to say that Jackson will be the main running back in the absence of Gordon, and the role played by Ekeler in the passing games ensures him to remain the best bet for the touchdowns. But that could become more of a committee than ever when Gordon was in good health. Given the advantage of his role, Jackson deserves a speculative recovery in almost every league while waiting to see what happens.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are no longer fantastic QBs to start with absolutely
They are two of the biggest quarterbacks ever to play the game. They have been just as fantastic fantasy as they have been for most of their careers. But this year, Rodgers and Brady are not among the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and none are even among the 15 best QBs of last month.
Rodgers 'numbers have dropped sharply as Mike McCarthy's attack has faded since the end of Packers Week 7, but he has not even added Rodgers' old stats. He has only two games with three touchdown passes or more and three games with over 300 passing yards all year.
Brady had one of his best games of the season Sunday with 283 yards and two goals, but it was still only the QB14 for the week leading up to the Monday night game. He has a touchdown or less in four of his last six games, and is only QB16 for the season.
There is simply no quick fix: Rodgers and Brady have injured fantasy teams all season, and at this point it's more than just considering alternatives as we head for the fantasy playoffs.
Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel are (for the most part) back
It had been a long time since Gronkowski and Michel had not had an impact on fantasy owners, but both of these Patriots were delivered Sunday.
The year was particularly grueling for Gronk, who missed only three games but seems to be playing less than 100% in many others. He did not look exactly like old Gronk in this game either, but he managed to score three catches for 56 yards and his first touchdown since the first week. We may never see the truly elite version of Gronkowski again, but as long as he can stay on the pitch, he is back among the top five for the stretch race.
Fantasy owners can feel even more confident about Michel, who has had his first workload since returning from a knee injury in Week 10, and has responded with 133 career goals. In the third quarter, Michel had a fear of injury and back pain, which seemed potentially serious at first sight, but he eventually returned quickly to the field. Expect that New England relies heavily on Michel, and with a fairly favorable schedule for the playoffs, fantastic program owners can too.
Josh Adams grabbed the Eagles' backfield
Eagles indicated before Sunday's game, Adams will be their main feature and they kept their promise against the Giants. Adams managed 22 of Philadelphia's 29 touchdowns and scored 84 yards and a touchdown.
The Eagles coach, Doug Pederson, is known to employ a three-back board, which represents a notable break from the habits of the past. Corey Clement himself had a very effective game against New York himself, making seven passes in 76 yards, and could lose against Philadelphia's setback (Adams did not draw anything on Sunday). Whatever the case may be, Wendell Smallwood could not be found. There is no doubt that Adams is back in Philadelphia, but he has a rather difficult schedule for the rest of the season. It is therefore better to approach it as RB2 / 3.
D.J. Moore is becoming the number one in Carolina
I've included Moore in this space last week, as a member of a group of large-scale novice receivers who have made their appearance. However, while Tre'Quan Smith, Courtland Sutton and Christian Kirk were absent or disappointed in Week 12, Moore continued to build on his breakthrough.
Devine Funchess struggling with what could be a back injury over several weeks, Moore was clearly the No. 1 Carolina, seeing more targets (nine) than the rest of the Panthers combined attack. Moore scored eight of those goals for 91 yards and added a seven-yard run. More importantly, he continued to take the eye test while doing so.
Funchess and the half-tight 33-year-old Greg Olsen are just not as dynamic as Moore. So expect Cam Newton to continue to focus on Moore and Christian McCaffrey even after Funchess returns. Carolina pass receivers are often passersby, but with a striking rest time (@TB, @CLE, NO, ATL), Moore could realistically produce the WR2 value in the bottom right.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the WR2 in Pittsburgh, but it's a WR1 for fantasy owners.
Known for his marked celebrations, his social media presence and his saga stolen by bike, Smith-Schuster is not the type of player you expect to forget. But as number two receiver of his own team, it's easy to forget that he's a real WR1 in fantasy football.
He is currently recording the overall WR13 in formats other than PPR, but is fifth in the league in receptions per game (7.0) and seventh in the league receiving yards per game (95.9) . He now has six 100-yard games – only Adam Thielen and Julio Jones have more. Smith-Schuster is currently not among the top 12 teams on the WR as he has only four touchdowns, but has scored in two of his last three games. He is also one of the most targeted players in the red zone, which should lead to a more positive regression of the touchdown.
With an attractive schedule for the fantastic playoffs (@OAK, NE, @NO), fantasy owners can feel confident to make Smith-Schuster their main receiver. But if you're like the Steelers and you can present it as your number two, it's a luxury.
Baker Mayfield is on track for QB1 status
Mayfield appeared to be an above average NFL quarterback since he made his first shot at goal in Week 3, but it took a bit of time – and some coaching spills – for that he is going up a gear from a fantastic point of view. Since the Browns sent Hue Jackson back in the eighth week, Mayfield trails only Drew Brees has been noted as a passer and has now scored seven touchdowns in the last two games.
If you head to the fantastic playoffs, you probably already have a QB that you feel confident from each week. But if you own Rodgers or Brady and Mayfield is available, Mayfield is the kind of QB that should at least give you food for thought. We should probably wait until next season to declare Mayfield QB1 every week, but it is quite worthy of the best meetings for favorable meetings – and the dates marked with Carolina in the 14th week and Cincinnati in the 16th week are certainly qualified .
Andy Dalton is injured, but it does not matter in fantasy
After competing in a series of juicy fights over the past month, Dalton had already lost his streamlining appeal in the fantastic quarterback leagues. But fantasy owners still relied on Dalton to do enough to support Tyler Boyd as WR2, get AJ Come Green in WR1 conversation once you're healthy and create enough opportunities to score. for Joe Mixon to reach RB1.
It should be noted that Dalton left Sunday's game with a sprained thumb that could be wasting time. Fortunately for the Bengals' gambling owners, alternate quarterback Jeff Driskel looked like he was going to help Dalton, even though it was in the lost time.
No one expects Driskel to be Boomer Esiason's second coming, but Dalton has not set the bar very high. If Boyd, Green and Mixon have managed to do the work for fantasy owners with Dalton under center, there is no reason to degrade them significantly if Driskel takes over.
Leonard Fournette should keep his hands for him
Fournette provided fantasy owners with production of RB1 during Week 12, bringing the Bills to 108 yards and two touchdowns in 21-touch. But he could have had a really big game if he had not been sent off in the third quarter after playing a boxing match with Bills Shaq Lawson's linebacker.
Fournette is not likely to be suspended at the time of the ejection, but fantasy owners struggling for their lives in series will have to hold their breath until we know it. With the way the Jags lean over Fournette like a big cow, he quickly reappears as a high-end RB1 – provided he manages to stay on the field.
We can no longer trust the defense of Jaguars
Defenses can make a big difference in many fantasy football leagues, but the trick is to determine the defense on which to rely. Of course, the performance of offensive players varies depending on various factors, but at least you try to evaluate a particular player. In defense, you must assign a collective value to a group of 11 to 20 different players, which largely explains the value of the fantastic defenses that fluctuates so significantly from one year to the next. And this without even going into the impact of the team calendar and schematic changes.
If you need proof that fantastic defenses are volatile, just look at Jacksonville. Consensus defense among the best at the start of the season, the Jaguars were one of the worst fantasy defenses of the season, regardless of the scoring system. And they reached the bottom of Week 12, awarding 24 points to Josh Allen and the Bills without saving a single bag or a turnover.
Once again, that does not mean that defenses do not count. If you own the Bears, for example, you have had a considerable advantage over your opponents throughout the season. But Chicago was not even a consensus among the top 10 in the world, and no one really knew they would become an elite option before several games in the season. So even if you do not necessarily have to scroll continuously, the Jaguars tell you why you can not just expect them to do what they did the previous season.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured Writer of FantasyPros. For more of Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
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