Over 100 Democratic challengers outperformed their GOP opponents in the third quarter of fundraising. More than 60 of them have collected more than a million dollars. Several recent surveys show that Democrats enjoyed an advantage greater than 10% in terms of party preference among likely voters in November. The latest poll USA Today / Suffolk revealed that Democrats were leading the polls between 51% and 43% of the vote. 56% of respondents said they want a convention that "rises" mainly against the president, while 35% of them want a room "cooperates" with him.
At the same time, President Donald Trump has seen his approval rate increase, leaving Republicans hope to be able to defend some seats in areas of the country where the president remains popular. For the GOP, the challenge is a large part of the House's competitive landscape to cross suburban terrain where the president's position is unstable, creating a drag on incumbents in difficult competitions.
With these democratic benefits in mind, CNN organizes nine competitions in the range of party-led competitions. Two races, meanwhile, switch to the Republicans.
In CNN's updated running notes, 14 seats occupied or canceled by Republicans are geared toward Democrats (or better) for the party. If the Democrats are able to sweep these races, they would be nine out of 23 seats, with the party needing a majority in the House.
Of the 30 races that CNN currently qualifies as Toss-Ups, only one is currently being run by Democrats – the 1st District of Minnesota. Democrats would only need a third of the most competitive races belonging to Republicans to claim the majority. Republicans are now favored to win two Democrat seats, which Democrats should win elsewhere.
At the races:
AZ-02: Former Democratic Representative Ann Kirkpatrick appears to be on the right track to return to Congress. Polls show Kirkpatrick far ahead of Republican Republican Lea Marquez Peterson. The National Republican Congress Committee cut funding for Peterson two weeks ago. The race goes from the democratic democratic to the probable democratic
IL-13: Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, fundraiser and former employee of Senator Dick Durbin, more than doubled GOP party representative Rodney Davis in the third quarter fundraiser, earning $ 175,000 in cash. Outlying groups on both sides are flocking to millions of people in this predominantly rural district that stretches from the suburbs of St. Louis to Champaign-Urbana in the east. Trump won the district by five points, but Barack Obama won with 55% in 2008. The race passes from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-15: A recent New York Times / Siena poll showed that Democrat Kristen Carlson and GOP State Representative Ross Spano were tied at 43 percent in the Tampa, suburban and suburban district. Carlson, a former federal prosecutor and attorney general of Florida's Citrus Department, has more than triple Spano's liquidity and additional outside help on television in the last days of the campaign. The race moves two categories of Probely Republican to Toss-Up
FL-18: National Republicans spend more than $ 600,000 on television in the last weeks of the campaign to help first-term representative Brian Mast resist Democracy Lauren Baer's challenge in the Treasure Coast district. Baer, a lawyer and former foreign policy advisor to the Obama administration, outperformed Mast in the third quarter, but still lagged behind. The race passes from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
MN-08: This open seat is one of the best GOP goals of this cycle. Trump raised the district by 16 points. The Republicans are among the best recruits for Pete Stauber, a former professional hockey player and retired police officer, who is in the northern Minnesota district. Stauber is ahead of Democrat-Farmer-Labor candidate Joe Radinovich in a recent New York Times / Siena poll between 49% and 34%. The race passes from Toss-Up to Lean Republican
NM-02: Polls in this GOP-focused district of southern New Mexico show Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Republican Yvette Herrell are stuck in a tight race. Torres Small has more than double the cash available to Herrell and enjoys a boost from the DCCC. The Congressional Leadership Fund is spending $ 700,000 in recent weeks to support Herrell's bid. The race passes from Lean Republican to Toss-Up
OH-01: GOP representative Steve Chabot will lead Democrat Aftab Pureval between 50% and 41% in the latest New York Times / Siena poll in this Cincinnati area district, the same margin as found in the poll a month ago. Pureval has been the target of attacks of nearly $ 3 million from the US Congressional Fund for Leadership, which has an additional $ 700,000 reserved on television by polling day, by Kantar Media / CMAG. The race passes from Toss-Up to Lean Republican
OH-12: This August special election rematch that Republican Troy Balderson won by less than a point against Democrat Danny O 'Connor is again attracting attention. The PACA First Action Pro-Trump super-action plans to spend about $ 700,000 on television over the next two weeks to help Balderson reduce the financial gap with O & # 39; Connor, which has more double the available cash. The race passes from Lean Republican to Toss-Up
PA-01: Voting in this race is split, GOP representative to the first term, Brian Fitzpatrick, garnering four points in a poll from Monmouth and Democrat Scott Wallace, a multi-millionaire philanthropist, led by seven in a New York Times / Siena poll. The new maps in Pennsylvania moved this district of Bucks County, in the suburbs, from a slightly worn Trump to one that Clinton would have earned by little. Democratic enthusiasm and the president's disapproval could make the difference in a tight race here. The race passes from Lean Republican to Toss-Up
VA-05: Republican Denver Riggleman, a former Air Force veteran and Bigfoot enthusiast, is struggling with Democrat Leslie Cockburn, separated by a single point in a New York Times / Siena poll. Cockburn, author and journalist, has $ 270,000 more in the bank than Riggleman. The GOP-bent of this neighborhood, home to Charlottesville and much of southern Virginia, makes it difficult for the Democrats. The race passes from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WA-03: GOP party representative Jaime Herrera Beutler remains the favorite in this district in southwest Washington, but the first candidate, Carolyn Long, faces a bigger challenge than expected. Long, professor of political science, Herrera Beutler has almost tripled its financing activities in the third quarter and has a financial advantage. A recent New York Times / Siena poll showed that Herrera Beutler had a 48% to 41% advantage. The race passes from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
HOUSE CLEANING: In addition to the races mentioned above, we are moving from five other Likely Democratic contests to Solid Democratic. These are: CA-07, FL-07, MN-07, NH-02 and NJ-05. In a different environment, these competitions would all be more competitive. This year, the Democrats in office have all five demanded to be reelected as overwhelming favorites against poorly funded challengers.
