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Probable voters are a subset of registered voters and include those who are most likely to come forward because of a willingness to vote, interest in the election and behavior of vote.
Arizona and Tennessee are two of four states where Democrats are widely seen as having at least a chance to win Senate seats in the November elections. The others are Texas – considered more of a long-term country – and Nevada – generally considered the Democratic's best chance for a Senate resumption. For the party to have any chance of taking control of the Senate, it is almost certain that at least one seat in Arizona or Tennessee will have to go the way of the Democrats.
The Republican incumbents of these seats – Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona and Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee – have both publicly criticized Trump. The president's approval ratings are closely tied to preferences in the Senate race, according to the poll. Among voters who disapprove of Trump's performance in Arizona, 85 percent support Sinema, while in Tennessee, 92 percent of those who disapprove of the president support Bredesen.
Democrats hope that a ticket topped by former state governor, Bredesen, whose favorability rating exceeds the negative by a margin of 2 to 1 (favorable 52% to 24% for registered voters), can bring tilt. Blackburn, on the other hand, divides public opinion: 41% of registered voters consider it favorably and 39% unfavorably, 20% being uncertain. The benefits of Bredesen are motivated by the inter-party appeal. Although his favorable scores are underestimated among Republicans, 28% of them have a favorable opinion of him, while only 9% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Blackburn.
In Arizona, Sinema and McSally are viewed more positively than negatively, although more than two in ten say they have no opinion on every candidate in the Senate.
Health care is at the top of the list of the most important issues for voters in both states, with 29% of respondents in the Senate in Tennessee and 25% in Arizona. The economy follows in Tennessee at 22%, with immigration coming in third with 16%. In Arizona, immigration ranks second with 22%, with the economy just behind at 20%. Voters who say health care is their main problem largely support the Democrat in both contests, breaking out of Bredesen over Blackburn from 71% to 21% and Sinema versus McSally from 75% to 14%. Voters in the economy and immigration favor the Republican in every state. Blackburn holds a huge 50-point lead among Tennessee's immigration electors and a 10-point advantage among voters in the economy. In Arizona, McSally surpassed Sinema by 33 points among immigration voters and by 24 points among those who view the economy as the most important issue in their vote.
In both states, Republicans have the upper hand in the race for the governor. Governor Doug Ducey narrowly dominates David Garcia in Arizona, 49% to 46%, while Republican Bill Lee leads Karl Dean in the race at the Tennessee governor's seat from 52% to 43%. Ducey's recent appointment of former Senator Jon Kyl to fill the Senate vacancy created by the death of Senator John McCain scored high among the Arizonans, 50% of those surveyed approve of the nomination and only 24% disagree. Approval increases to 60% among those most likely to vote.
CNN polls in Arizona and Tennessee were conducted by SSRS from September 11 to 15 among random samples taken at the state level on landlines or mobile phones by a live interviewer. In Arizona, the results for the full sample of 1,001 adults have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, plus or minus 4.1 for the 854 registered electors and plus or minus 4.3 for the 761 points. In Tennessee, the results for the full sample of 1,000 respondents have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. That's 3.9 for the sample of 852 registered voters and 4.3 for the results among the 723 likely voters.
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