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Even with the repeal of Obamacare in the rearview mirror (for now), the defining problem for many voters in 2018 is that of health care.
No problem has mobilized the Democrats more after the Republicans tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act last year. Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center, the Kaiser Family Foundation and others have shown that health care was perhaps the biggest problem for voters this year. It has become a staple of Democrats' campaigns across the country – progressive enclaves where single-payer health care increases participation in the red-toned states that voted for Trump, where vulnerable Democrats are leaning toward democracy. protection of pre-existing conditions anchored in Obamacare. .
Republicans seem to recognize the advantage of the Democratic Party and reconcile to support the most popular parts of Obamacare, even though the official position of the party for eight years has been that the law must be repealed and that little attention to the situation. details. The case is complicated by a lawsuit filed by 20 states under the leadership of Republicans and supported in part by the Trump administration, which would overturn current protections relating to pre-existing conditions.
But there are many nuances in the way health care plays mid-term. Pre-existing illnesses are the dominant theme, but Medicare for all, prescription drugs and women's health are also in the election this year.
Here are five House campaigns that together provide a comprehensive picture of all the ways in which health care defines the medium-term goals of 2018 – and five others that resemble them.
Obamacare abrogates impact of effort: Third Congressional District of New Jersey
What is the neighborhood? Third Congressional District of New Jersey, representing the suburbs of Garden State in the suburbs of Philadelphia. The district voted for Donald Trump by 6 points in 2016. The cook's political report gives a positive rating.
Who is the Republican? Outgoing representative Tom MacArthur was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected by 20 points in 2016.
Who is the democrat? Andy Kim, former head of the fight against terrorism at the White House under President Barack Obama. He announced his candidacy soon after the House passed its bill repealing the Obamacare law in spring 2017.
How health care defines the campaign: MacArthur is the typical Republican who pays the price of GOP projects aimed at restoring pre-existing conditions.
Republicans in New Jersey did not just vote for the GOP's health care bill. He helped forge a compromise with the Conservative caucus on freedom to relax some of the protections of the Affordable Care Act, such as essential health benefits, so that the far right and the more moderate members caucus can be heard.
The part of the bill that gave states the option of suspending reforms to the Insurance Act was literally called the MacArthur Amendment. MacArthur was a strong supporter of the bill and his disposition, even going for hours in front of a city hall to answer questions from voters. In fact, he left his leadership position in Tuesday's moderate group on the issue, showing how far he had gone for the repeal of Obamacare.
Kim directly linked his campaign ad to MacArthur's role in repealing Obamacare. His campaign has repeatedly attacked MacArthur because he "wrote a bill aimed at stifling protections for people with pre-existing diseases."
MacArthur, like many other mid-term Republicans, tried to pretend that he was supportive of protecting pre-existing conditions despite this story. PolitiFact found that the House bill, including the MacArthur amendment, maintained these protections as "generally false".
Polls show that three-quarters of Americans support keeping the Obamacare rules and that health care is a major issue for mid-term voters. This has made Republicans like MacArthur nervous, but they can not escape their record.
Another district like this: Sixth District of Michigan Congress. Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) is safer than MacArthur; Cook assesses his probably republican neighborhood. But, like MacArthur, he personally intervened to help the bill repealing the House bill to pass the ACA and his Democratic opponent specialized in health care.
Washington Republicans have recently started spending on behalf of Upton, a sign that he may be more vulnerable than one might have thought. If this is true, health care is probably the culprit.
Medicare candidate for all on ballot: Second Nebraska Congress District
What is the neighborhood? Second Congressional District of Nebraska, representing the Omaha region. The district voted for Donald Trump by 2 points in 2016. Cook rates the race as a lean Republican.
Who is the Republican? The incumbent representative, Don Bacon, elected for the first time in 2016, won by just one point.
Who is the democrat? Kara Eastman, who defeated former representative Brad Ashford in the Democratic primary. She ran a nonprofit organization in Omaha before deciding to run for office.
How health care defines the campaign: Eastman's primary victory in May marked a turning point for the left in 2018, when she defeated Ashford, a centrist, by joining Medicare-for-all.
But election forecasters soon wondered if Eastman's platform would be too far left for a Swing House district in the plains. The super PAC Republicans have repeatedly attacked Eastman for supporting a single payer, even as she was trying to center her message on the general election on the repeal of Obamacare (which Bacon had argued in the House) and on pre-existing conditions.
The GOP ads have evaded the words "Medicare for All" – which are very popular with the public – and have instead attacked Eastman for supporting a $ 32 trillion government "takeover" of health care .
The New York Times / Siena College House poll shows that Bacon is ahead. A defeat for Eastman, after his first encouraging victory, would force the left to take into account the basic problem of his problem in certain parts of America and the ease with which he could be attacked by the Republicans.
Another district like this: 24th Congressional District of New York. The launching race par excellence. Dana Balter (who runs Medicare for all) defeated the institution's choice in the primary to challenge Rep. John Katko (R-NY). As Election Day approaches, Katko, like Bacon, seems to have a considerable advantage over his progressive opponent.
An election focused on women's health: the 25th Congress of California
What is the neighborhood? The 25th Congressional District of California, which covers the northern limits of the Los Angeles metropolitan area. The district voted for Hillary Clinton by 7 points in 2016. Cook gives him a very high score.
Who is the Republican? Representative in place, Steve Knight. He was elected for the first time at Congress in 2014.
Who is the democrat? Katie Hill, who previously ran a nonprofit, homeless organization in Los Angeles.
How health care defines the campaign: Hill spoke openly about her unplanned pregnancy and her internal debate over the abortion opportunity. pregnancy has ended in miscarriage. She remains firmly in favor of the right to abortion.
Knight, for one, is fiercely opposed to abortion and has supported the idea of restricting access to abortion and removing funding from the Planned Parenthood program at every opportunity. The NARAL abortion rights group has made Knight a target for its efforts in 2018 and has been posting support announcements to Hill, contrasting his position with Knight's.
Another district like this: Second Congressional District of Minnesota. Pre-existing conditions (knowing that these can include pregnancy and domestic violence) are particularly important for women. However, women's health and abortion have been at the center of concern for a smaller number of races, even during the Year of Women.
But NARAL is also on the air against representative Jason Lewis (R-MN), who runs against Democrat Angie Craig. Lewis opposes abortion; he also lamented once, in his previous role of radio show host, that it was no longer acceptable to call women "sluts".
Tax cuts for large pharmaceutical companies without doing anything for the price of drugs: the 14th Congressional District of Ohio
What is the neighborhood? The 14th Congressional District of Ohio, which covers the northeast corner of the state, is east of Cleveland. The district voted for Donald Trump by 12 points in 2016. According to Cook, he is probably Republican, but the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia quoted him in the Lean Republican column.
Who is the Republican? The outgoing representative, David Joyce, was elected for the first time in 2012. He was re-elected in 2016 by 25 points.
Who is the democrat? Betsy Rader, a civil rights lawyer who worked for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services under Obama.
How health care defines the campaign: Rader attacks Joyce for supporting the House's health care bill and bringing back preexisting conditions, but she also targeted the price of prescription drugs.
In 30 seconds, she compares her CMS experience with Joyce's vote on the Republican tax bill, which provided for a significant corporate tax cut that benefited the largest drug companies. "David Joyce: He will not do anything," she says. "He takes their money and gives them a big tax break."
The price of drugs remains a major concern for voters in 2018, a populist issue that transcends party boundaries. Rader is a bit of a long shot but she is looking at the price of drugs and a promise to deal with pharma in a district where she will need cross voters.
Another district like this: Third District of Illinois Congress. Just like Rader, Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan is attacking Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL) about the price of drugs and linking the issue to the outgoing president's vote for tax law.
The Rare Republican Who Voted Against Obamacare Repeals: Pennsylvania's First Congressional District
What is the neighborhood? Pennsylvania's First Convention District. With the redefinition of the districts of the state prescribed by the Court, the district represents the counties of Bucks and Montgomery in the southeast corner of the state. Cook notes the race thoroughly.
Who is the Republican? Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, elected for the first time in the eighth Pennsylvania in 2016. He now shows up in the first district after re-allocating even though he occupies much of his former seat.
Who is the democrat? Scott Wallace, lawyer and former senatorial staff in the region.
How health care defines the campaign: Fitzpatrick was actually one of the few Republicans to vote against the health care bill introduced in the House. He raised a number of concerns, including the protection of patients and the expected effect of the opioid crisis bill.
The Democrats focused on a few procedural votes that Fitzpatrick took during the debate over the repeal of the Obamacare chamber to attack him for violating the protection of the law against pre-existing conditions, despite the negative vote on the final bill.
Independent investigators have ruled the attacks unjust and criticized the Democrats for misleading the voters on the subject.
Fitzpatrick also voted for the GOP tax bill that repeals Obamacare's individual mandate, a vote that Democrats believe is effectively wiping out its vote against the previous health care bill, given that the central place of the mandate in the law.
Even if the political truth is perhaps more obscure than suggested by the democratic attacks, the Fitzpatrick experience shows that even the Republicans who opposed the party to the abrogation of Obamacare can not to escape Democratic anger related to pre-existing conditions.
Another district like this: Third District of Washington Congress. Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) also voted against the bill on health care of the House. But his Democratic opponent, Carolyn Long, hammered the issue during the election campaign, noting the multiple votes Beutler had taken to repeal Obamacare during the Obama administration and the Republican candidate's campaign contributions to the health care sector.
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