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Kevin SeifertNFL Nation
The passage of week 9 means we have entered the second half of the NFL season. More games have been played than will be played. And you know what that means, is not it? It's time to start digesting the image of the 2018 playoffs.
What follows is a preview of what the series would look like if the season was over. This is not, of course, and there are so many games left that three Division Chiefs – the Bears, Saints and Redskins – still have two games against their current No. 2 team. But we can always get into the spirit of the thing.
AFC
The Chiefs have been the most entertaining team in the NFL this season. They eclipsed 40 points in two games and scored less than 30 points just once. And although nothing indicates that they are ready for a slide, it is worth returning to 2013 for the context. In the first season of coach Andy Reid with the Chiefs, they started with 9-0 before losing five of their last seven regular-season games and losing in the wild-card round of the playoffs . In other words, there is a long way to go. But until now, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have been slowed down.
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A 6th week win against the Chiefs means that the Patriots must win only one match in the AFC standings to take control of the No. 1 seed. (The Patriots would win via the tiebreaker against to face in case of identical records.) Their timing looks promising. For the moment, only three of their last seven opponents have winning records. Overall, ESPN's Football Power Rating (FPI) estimates that the power of the Patriotes program in the second half of the year is the third-easiest in the NFL.
Having found their pace during a run of four consecutive wins, the Steelers are entering a difficult part of their schedule. They welcome the Panthers on fire for a short week and will soon face the Chargers, Patriots and Saints in four weeks. For this reason, the REIT believes that the strength of its program in the second half of the year is the fifth most difficult of the NFL. And despite everything, they practically put no distance between them and the Bengals.
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Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin admires how his team fights, especially the defensive efforts in the red zone.
What do we do with Texans? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, they are the fourth NFL team to win at least six straight games after a 0-3 start. If nothing else, we can say that they were the best team in a bad division. All other members of AFC South have lost track record. The Titans (3-4) will play Monday night.
A series of five consecutive victories allowed the Chargers to stay within striking distance of the Chiefs and well above the first wildcard race. Live screenings of FPI on Sunday night gave the Chargers a 93% chance to go to the playoffs. This is in itself a wild development in the recent history of the franchise. They have missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons, with the exception of 2013.
The Bengals are at the heart of the AFC North race and would qualify as wild cards if the season ended today. The second level of the AFC seems thin at the moment. The only other team to have a winning record outside the top six is the Dolphins (5-4). And with Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis' annual discussion on job security, a return to the playoffs after an absence of two years would be enough to extend his term?
On the hunt: Miami Dolphins (5-4), Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Tennessee Titans (3-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5), Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
NFC
Two formidable teams have given us all the clues we need to know who will meet at the Super Bowl LIII. Plus: Should the Jets sit down Darnold?
As the playoffs heat up, the Panthers, Steelers and Vikings have all won major victories in their division. NFL Nation is diving into the 9th week.
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In one day, the Rams went from undefeated in the middle of the season to a loss of control of the head of the NFC. The Rams would be tied with the Saints for the playoff game, likely for No. 1 seed after losing to New Orleans in Sunday's Superdome track match. (The Saints have played one game less and held them behind the Rams for the moment.) And although they have a relatively defiant look ahead in NFC West, where they have three games in advance of the Seahawks, the Rams will have to work to follow with the saints. The remaining non-division Rams schedule includes games against the Chiefs, Bears and Eagles.
On a run of seven consecutive wins, the Saints are as good as any other NFL team. If they win, they can gain an advantage on their pitch during the playoffs. That's the good news. Bad news? The NFC South announces it as a heavyweight fight. The Panthers are a worse game and the teams will play twice in the last three weeks of the regular season. Overall, the Saints will have the third-largest schedule strength in the second half of the season, according to FPI.
Some of you may wonder if the Bears are real or if it's just a gimmick with a good defense that has played so far with an easy schedule. Here's what we can tell you: They had the weakest NFL program in the first half of the season, by FPI. That will change a little in the second half, when they play the Vikings and Lions, twice each, and the Packers once. Much of the history of the Bears remains to be told.
Sunday's Falcons defeat was one of the REIT's games with the highest leverage in terms of the probability of participation in the series, per REIT. Although the Redskins have a one-game lead in the East of the NFC, the FPI gives them a 39% chance to advance in the playoffs. (This figure does not include any Sunday action.) Losing to a potential competitor in a wild card is significant. Just as important: The Redskins' remaining schedule includes two games against the Eagles, who have won two of their last three games.
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According to Alex Smith, the Redskins "still have a lot to do," even though Washington is at the top of the NFC East in mid-season.
While everyone congratulated the Rams and Saints for their innovative projects, the Panthers won five of the six games, averaging 30 points per game. The Panthers represent a significant obstacle to the Saints' victory in NFC South, and both teams at this stage should be considered Super Bowl contenders.
The Vikings are entering their farewell with a lot to hope for. They got the top running back Dalvin Cook is back on the field after missing five games due to a hamstring injury. Everson Griffen has played two consecutive goals after being absent from the team since the third week to deal with mental health issues after a series of incidents. Meanwhile, Danielle Hunter has imposed herself as one of the best passkeepers in football. Receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will have time to get healthy again. And the remaining Vikings schedule, which includes two games against the Bears, gives them the opportunity to fight for the NFC North title. Minnesota is on the rise.
On the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (4-4), Seattle Seahawks (4-4), Philadelphia Eagles (4-4), Dallas Cowboys (3-4), Green Bay Packers (3-4-1)
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