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Week 11 gave us an instant classic: the Rams came out victorious from the Chiefs in a shootout at 54-51 that saw over 1,000 yards of offense. Although that was all the NFL world wanted and more, the simulations do not take into account the quality of a game. They just care about the quality of the teams. And although the mistakes of the Rams and Chiefs seemed incredible, the defenses are a real concern.
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The Rams had two defensive touchdowns in this game, plus a touchdown for another turnover. Despite all this and the Rams' win in a face-to-face duel, the simulations now suggest that the Chiefs have a better chance of winning the title. Super Bowl as the Rams. Patrick Mahomes looked incredible for Kansas City, and even with five turnovers, this defeat did not devastate his MVP run. However, leaders should be wary of another NFC team.
The Saints of New Orleans absolutely wiped out the Eagles Sunday, 48-7, while Drew Brees surgically destroyed Philly's defense, as he has already done for all defenses. The Saints now have more than 25% chances in the SportsLine simulation, and they do not seem to slow down. The Saints are not beating the teams for the moment. they are strangling them. Even with the Rams holding the NFC's best record after Monday night's classic, the Saints are clearly up for grabs.
The Saints, Rams and Chargers are clearly in a class of their own right now. The Patriots, who have just passed, are actually above the Rams in our simulation. The Chargers were the victims of their loss to the Broncos, while the Steelers continued their winning streak and saw their ratings rise. The Texans are another CAF black horse, but they struggle to compete with the best players in the league, even with a run of seven straight wins.
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As mentioned above, the saints look completely unstoppable right now. Drew Brees has a season of outstanding player caliber, Mark Ingram has played two consecutive 100-yard games and Michael Thomas is a top receiver in the NFL. Against the Eagles, however, the players made the difference. Austin Carr hit a touchdown, Keith Kirkwood had a nice day and Tre & Quan Smith absolutely enlightened him.
The offensive is a well-oiled machine, but the defense also deserves credit. Carson Wentz made three picks against the Saints on Sunday, with Marshon Lattimore earning his first pick of the season. The pass has been solid and Marcus Davenport may soon be back. Speaking of injuries, the Saints scored 48 points on the Eagles without the elite left tackle, Terron Armstead, so this offensive is not even at the top right now.
Brandon Marshall may end up having an impact on this Saints offense, but Brees has proven time and time again: No matter who he throws. If you have hands, it will make you look good. With three consecutive weeks of 45 points or more, the Saints do not want weapons. If Marshall enters and plays at a high level, it's only a bonus for this offense.
The other contenders
Nothing has changed with respect to other competitors, with the exception of the order. Obviously, the Chiefs dominated the Rams despite their loss, and the Patriots lost the rest week in terms of simulation chances (when the other three teams played like the Saints, Chiefs and Rams, which was predictable), but otherwise things are pretty consistent at the top. The main reason for the success of the Rams is the Saints' jump – these points had to come from somewhere, and it makes sense that it comes in conference.
The Chargers are of course the main problem of the leaders. Their defeat means that the Chargers only have one and a half games in West Africa at a striking distance. The two teams meet again on December 13th and this match could decide the division. Mahomes still plays an incredible football, and the praise he brings is well deserved. In the future, all the leaders can do is continue to win games. With a bye this week, their remaining schedule is favorable to them. All they have to do, is to take care of business.
Always in the mix
The NFC really feels like a two-team race. The saints and rams dominate the simulations, the bears resembling the only black horse there is. Khalil Mack continues to look like an animal, and their 7-3 record can not be considered a mirage – the Bears are real.
The AFC is much more open. The Steelers once again won Sunday, beating the Jaguars for their sixth consecutive victory. Antonio Brown looks as good as ever this season and he still broke 100 yards on Sunday. The aforementioned Chargers lost to the Broncos, but the Chiefs' loss kept them alive, not only for AFC West, but also for AFC's No. 1 seed. Philip Rivers always looks great for L.A., while Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler form a duet of semifinalists. Rivers threw for 400 yards on Sunday and the Chargers were only beaten by a second-second goal.
Long shots
The Houston Texans suddenly find it hard to compete in the AFC South, with the Colts coming back behind Andrew Luck's stellar play and offensive line. The Colts derailed the weeklong train on Titan by crushing the Tennessee 38-10 Sunday. The Texans, meanwhile, have won seven straight victories behind the formidable defender of their defense and DeAndre Hopkins, who made another great catch last Sunday.
The Vikings lost to the Bears on Sunday, and their chances of winning in the division are not great, but they have a strong starting card for a wild card. The Packers are just outside the replacement photo. Catching the Bears in the North of the NFC's tough announcement, but the Vikings could ignite.
The NFC East, meanwhile, is still wide open, and you know what that means: the Cowboys are back in the picture. With two consecutive victories on the road, the Cowboys are trying to qualify for the playoffs. The Redskins have lost Alex Smith for the season, so this is an opportunity for Dallas. The Cowboys can tie the Redskins for the division lead with a Thanksgiving win on Thursday.
The two teams of potential wild-cards to watch are the Panthers and the Seahawks. The Panthers have lost two consecutive games, but at 6-4, they are still in the conversation for the NFC playoffs. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 5-5. The Viking tie is the only thing that keeps them from playing in the playoffs at the moment. Seattle won a huge win against the Packers on Thursday, and the Seahawks are not going to catch the Rams, but they can still sneak into the playoffs.
The Ravens also took a new boost after Sunday's victory, which saw the debut of Lamar Jackson. Jackson boosted the Ravens on Sunday, accumulating more than 100 yards. He will also try to lead the Ravens to a Wild Card qualification, as the Steelers continue to move north into the AFC.
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