3 things stand in the way of a tornado outbreak in Michigan

Southern Michigan is located in an area where tornadoes could occur tonight and at night. I've found three things that could help Michigan avoid tornadoes tonight. Of course, if these three things do not go against tornado storms, we could have some tornadoes tonight.

The first meteorological feature to intensify extreme weather is counterintuitive. The sun is a necessary factor often for extreme weather conditions. In the afternoon and evening, the sun warms the air, making the air unstable and ready to rise in a violent storm.

The satellite animation of the late morning and early afternoon shows that the clouds are trying to thicken the bottom of Michigan. If you see a lot of sun this afternoon and this evening, expect more violent storms tonight with a possible tornado.

If the sky is still cloudy, the temperatures will probably remain too cold to trigger violent storms. Looking at the trend of the clouds above, the sun is emerging.

The second meteorological factor is an altitude chart that may not match the weather. High winds have oval-shaped segments that have stronger winds. These are called "jet nuclei" by meteorologists. Here is the forecast at altitude at 8 pm tonight:

Areas of severe weather under the jet stream are not able to affect Lower Michigan at 20 hours. tonight.

At 2 pm, a situation called "jet coupled" develops. It is there that one part of a jet stream is located to produce extreme weather conditions, and another part of a second jet core is also positioned to produce meteorological conditions. extremes. But the coupled stream is not quite right at 2 am.

At 8:00 am Wednesday, the jetstream is designed to produce extreme weather, but the unstable surface features will have shifted to southeast Michigan. That's why I call it a desynchronized situation. If the situation really goes like that, we will probably avoid extreme weather in Michigan tonight and tonight.

The last point about extreme weather is simple: the timing of storms. These thunderstorms are expected after sunset and especially in the middle of the night. Severe weather, including tornadoes, can occur in the middle of the night, but it's a rare situation.

If you want to follow the latest weather forecast for tonight, click here.

Also watch for MLive as the storm develops tonight.