So where are we going from here? Below, five scenarios to follow over the next few days, which may well determine who will end up in the fight for "Fear".
What we saw late Tuesday was a series of denials coordinated by key Trump staffers – Chief of Staff John Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis – to refute extremely damaging representations on their part. But statements like these are sort of like de rigueur in these situations. Broad denials that create men of straw, overthrow them and then suggest that the case is settled. If Mattis and Kelly have not made just statements, it's hard to see how they could stay in the administration again a day.
But what now? Trump tweeted Wednesday morning that the Woodward book "forms[ed] an image of a person who is literally the exact opposite. "This is a great claim." Given Woodward's reputation – as a preeminent chronicler of the modern White House – and his extensive experience of fair and accurate reporting, it is incumbent on Trump to prove that Woodward has committed major errors, which involves providing accurate evidence of errors, not just to say that the book contains errors.
2. Will Republicans break ranks?
Time and time again in his first year in power, Republican elected officials sought to ignore or downplay Trump's repetitive words and actions. They played with his concept that nothing is his fault and that everything is the fault of the media and the way we cover it. Do Republican influencers maintain this solid front against what – knowing Woodward – is for sure a mountain of evidence (transcriptions of interviews, tapes, etc.) that underpin his book? Already, less than 24 hours later, cracks appeared. On Tuesday night, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham called Woodward a "good reporter." And Ari Fleischer, former White House press secretary George W. Bush and someone who has shown his willingness to defend Trump,
tweeted this"I'm getting a book from Bob Woodward, there were quotes I did not like, but never once – ever – I thought Woodward had invented, take liberties." But Woodward still plays is right, somebody told him. "The question is not whether the Jeff Flakes and the Ben Sasses of the world criticize Trump; they go. What matters is whether one of the party leaders – or other members who have not yet voiced their problems with the president – do so.
3. What does Woodward have to say?
Remember that the book does not come out before next Tuesday. Yes, we have already heard some of the juiciest nuggets. But, it's a book of over 400 pages. Which means that there is a lot more in there. What is it? How does Trump react to this? How is it covered – and for how long? The first wave of Woodward stories is over. But the overall story is not over – far from it. How long does it last and how much does Trump suffer? It depends a lot on what Woodward has in the book and / or other shocking audio recordings like the one he published yesterday between Trump and him.
4. Will the White House's message change?
Trump is a notoriously unreliable messenger – often saying one thing in an interview and contradicting himself in a tweet. Or offer a totally different version of events than the official reading of the White House of a situation. Remember how Trump fired the FBI director, James Comey, because of a note written by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. And then Trump admitted to NBC's Lester Holt that he was going to send back Comey regardless of the memo, while thinking about "this Russian affair with Trump".
We already see a dissonance in Trump's message. After spending most of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning denigrating the Woodward book as a fake,
Trump tweeted this at 9:20 am.: "Almost everyone agrees that my administration has done more in less than two years than any other administration in the history of our country.I am hard like the others and if it was not the case, nothing would be done.I question everyone and everything – that's why I was elected! "This seems to be a confirmation that Trump's brutal treatment towards his staff, as described in the Woodward's book, is accurate. Which raises the question of whether Trump actually thinks that Woodward's book is not true, is true in some parts or is totally true and it just says things.
5. Will there be a resignation or a significant dismissal?
I know that for the moment, the White House keeps a united front. But we know that Trump and Kelly in particular have not always been up to the task. Despite Kelly's refusal to call Trump a "fool", it seems likely – given not only Woodward's reporting, but also the weight of all reports on this White House – that Kelly used a word President. And it is also likely that Woodward has the tapes – or the transcripts – to support his claims about how Kelly and Mattis see the president. When this rubber meets the road, it is possible that Trump loses his patience (he has already done so!) And sets his sights on someone like Kelly. Such an initiative would obviously create its own scenario.
