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Six weeks after the start of the advance poll, the number of votes cast in Minnesota has almost reached the expected turnout in the 2016 general election, according to data from the Secretary of State of Minnesota – a first sign of the vote. high potential for participation in mid-term in November.
In 2016, nearly 700,000 postal ballots were received prior to polling day. So far this year, around 540,000 votes have already been cast, which is roughly the same as in 2016 and to date, which is significantly more than the number of people who voted at the beginning of the 2014 mid-term. , the year in which the advance poll was authorized.
The Star Tribune has traced the early vote here every week until polling day, with new accounts generally taking place on Thursdays. This is what we observed at the time of the vote:
How does the participation rate compare to 2014 and 2016?
A high number of anticipated votes could reflect the enthusiasm of voters from both parties. It may also suggest that Minnesota is accustomed to the recent voting laws, promulgated in 2013 and initially available in 2014, which allow residents to vote early without excuse about six weeks before the election.
So far this year, 539,806 Minnesota have cast ballot papers – about twice the number who voted early at this stage of 2014 and about 28,000 votes behind 2016 score.
Keeping track of the pace of 2016 is particularly important as the mid-term turnout is generally much lower in Minnesota than in the presidential years.
Minnesota is often the head of the country in terms of voter turnout, and the US Elections project shows that the vote is not much different. The advance vote of Minnesota has already reached 174% of the total number of postal ballots accepted in 2014, which is one of many states to exceed the total mid-term votes.
Are young voters present?
Election forecasters are keeping a close watch on youth voting this year, as a significant increase in voter turnout among 18- to 34-year-olds could have a significant impact on the November results.
This year's early youth vote includes 12% of ballot papers to date, at about the same level as their advanced participation rate in 2016.
However, young early voters also have the highest percentage among the age groups did not vote in Minnesota in 2016. This recrudescence of new voters at the beginning of their careers is accompanied by a sharp increase in the number of young people newly enrolled.
It may also indicate that many people who were not old enough to vote in 2016 are now participating in the voting process.
Voters aged 65 and over had the highest rate of early voter turnout in the last election and received similar percentages this year from voters who voted by mail or mail, and are often older.
Where do the first votes come from?
In addition to being the major population centers of the state, metropolitan counties like Hennepin and Ramsey often vote strongly democratically during statewide elections. The high participation rate in this country could reflect Democrats' enthusiasm, while the high voter turnout in distant counties could mean the same thing for Republicans.
Up to now, measure the percentage of postal ballots cast by Minnesota County – in the shadow of less at more – reveals the earliest participation in the counties of Hennepin, Ramsey and Dakota.
As a percentage of registered voters, northern state counties and Iron Range had one of the highest voter turnout percentages in 2016. Voting by correspondence and correspondence are often a significant percentage of total votes in Minnesota.
What is happening in the suburbs?
The suburbs of Twin Cities host two highly contested races in Congress, which could play a role in increasing participation. The suburbs are also a key battleground in the statewide races. The enthusiasm of voters is therefore important for both parties.
Until now, more 2018 As in 2016, the first votes are expected from the counties of Hennepin and Ramsey.
The other five metropolitan counties – Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Scott and Washington – alone account for about a quarter of the anticipated votes, indicating a significant number of anticipated polls in the suburbs.
About 39% of the anticipated votes took place in the Minnesota region, mainly in the central and southern regions.
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