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The result now depends on a new hearing, tentatively scheduled for Monday, where Kavanaugh and California professor Christine Blasey Ford, who alleges that a drunken Kavanaugh and sexually assaulted while they were both at home. high school, could both testify. Kavanaugh denies the allegation.
That the hearing is taking place and testifying are very open issues at this stage. The Republicans have presented it as an opportunity to take or leave for Ford. Ford said that there should be an FBI inquiry into the claims first. Remember, the Republicans want this to happen very quickly, which is why Judicial Committee Chair Chuck Grassley has put a date on the calendar. Democrats like Sen. Dianne Feinstein, whom Ford first informed of the alleged attack, would not be disturbed.
Why? Election day. The current Senate becomes a lame duck in November and disappears entirely in January. There are almost too many variables to follow, but here's how Kavanaugh's story could unfold:
If the hearing continues and Ford is not credible or if it is canceled because it will not testify, there is a decent chance that Republicans can rally Kavanaugh and confirm it. Maine Senator Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, two Republicans who said they want to hear Ford's side, suggested that it would be very interesting if Ford did not make its allegations in public at Capitol Hill.
Scenario 2: Pence launches tie-break, confirms Kavanaugh
In the current Senate, two Republicans and each Democrat should oppose Kavanugh to put his nomination in jeopardy. If only one Republican opposed Kavanuagh, like Murkowski's Collins, but all the other Republicans supported him, Vice President Mike Pence should vote unanimously. It would be unprecedented for a Supreme Court judge with a lifetime appointment to be confirmed in this manner, but Republicans have already modified Senate procedure by requiring 60 votes to limit debate on Supreme Court candidates. to confirm Neil Gorsuch. Would they be retained for a tie-break? Nope. Probably not. At the same time, being the only Republican to oppose a Supreme Court candidate would be a very isolated place.
Scenario 3: Kavanaugh fails, Republicans find new candidate before election day
If Kavanaugh's nomination fails, Republicans have little time to push another candidate before the elections. Previously, appointments to the Supreme Court took only a few days. No more. The most recent applications take more than two months from the date of appointment until confirmation. Kavanaugh, who was appointed on July 9, is already beyond that. We have less than two months before polling day at this time. Any new appointment must be made quickly, contrary to what we have seen in recent years. The last successful candidate, confirmed in less than a month, was John Paul Stevens, appointed by President Gerald Ford in 1975.
Note: We have now reached polling day, after which there will be the promise of a new Senate, so the scenarios now rest on a Republican or Democratic majority.
Democrats are struggling to regain control of the Senate, but that is not entirely impossible.
Scenario 4: Kavanaugh fails, Republicans vote on new Duck Blade candidate
If Republicans retain their majority in the Senate or widen it, the confirmation of a candidate after polling day will not be a big problem. But if the Democrats take the Senate in November, would the Republicans rush a Conservative candidate before the Democrats take control in January?
McConnell probably would not be bothered by this hypocrisy. (He sat on Garland's nomination because it was a presidential election year and it's a mid-term year.) But we're talking about replacing the vote with Anthony Kennedy exchanged by a crazy conservative. It is a generational achievement.
That his republican flock was following him would be another question. If the Democrats take control of the Senate, it is possible that some Republicans are not able to confirm a life judge after a reprimand in the ballot box. But, and this is repeated over and over again, these appointments aim to have a conservative majority for decades or not. You can imagine most Republicans living with it. It would be an unknown territory.
Scenario 5: Kavanaugh hesitates, Democrats win majority in Senate, find consensus candidate
Let's say that, one way or another, Republicans are unable to confirm Kavanaugh or another replacement candidate after losing the election and the Democrats take over. Should the Democrats play and work with President Trump and the Republicans to find a candidate that everyone can agree on? President Trump is committed to selecting his candidates from a list approved by the Conservatives that does not match the Democrats. It is difficult to imagine a consensus candidate in this scenario, when the ideological tendency of the court is at stake.
Scenario 6: Kavanaugh hesitates, Democrats win majority in Senate, but block nomination until 2021
If the Republicans fail to get a candidate through the party and the Democrats take control of the Senate, the Democratic base will lobby for their legislators to sit on the nomination after the next presidential election.
At that time, you will read all kinds of stories about how there is nothing in the Constitution about nine judges at the court. There have been periods in the history of the United States without nine judges, with six and ten. Congress established wording in the Judicial Act of 1869 setting the number of judges to nine.
As a result of this scenario, there could be no new justice for years, potentially not until a president has a friendly Senate. Given the frequency with which the Democrats still mention Garland and complain about McConnell's delay, this is not completely out of the question.
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