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Storms are expected to hit much of the eastern United States on Tuesday, which could reduce turnout on polling day in some places.
A strong cold front could cause rain and wind anywhere along the east coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Maine, said Tim Loftus, data expert and meteorologist at AccuWeather. There will most likely be severe thunderstorms from North Carolina to the south of Jersey. And in the northeast, especially in New York and Pennsylvania, winds could reach 50 miles by the hour, Loftus said.
The same large storm system is expected to result in a mix of rain and snow in the Great Lakes region and the northern plains, including parts of Michigan, Minnesota and North Dakota.
"Almost the entire eastern half of the country" will be affected, said Ari Sarsalari, meteorologist for Weather Channel. Much of the I-95 corridor will be rainy and the wind will be particularly bad in the Midwest, including in the Great Lakes region and in the Ohio Valley.
Many studies have shown that bad weather on polling day can reduce turnout, which tends to help Republicans, since the groups most likely to be dissuaded from voting are those who tend to vote Democrat. But a more recent study, published last November in the American Politics Research, revealed that the political consequences of polling day storms could go beyond the participation rate. One of the co-authors of the study said that among the voters who show up, a little more tend to vote Republican in bad weather.
"The weather can affect how you vote, but also how to vote," said co-author Yusaku Horiuchi, a government professor in Dartmouth. "When the weather is bad, the mood is affected. People tend to be more inclined to take risks. When people are less inclined to take risks, they are more likely to be more conservative and therefore vote for Republicans rather than Democrats. "
Professor Horiuchi pointed out that this effect is weak. He and his coauthor, Woo Chang Kang of the Australian National University of Canberra, estimated that about 1% of voters were likely to change their minds due to adverse weather conditions, which may result in an increase of about three percentage points in a Republican candidate. vote share – enough, in theory, to tip the balance of a tight race.
While it is widely accepted that bad weather can reduce turnout and that the reduced voter turnout tends to benefit Republicans, this is not something that Republicans tend to acknowledge publicly.
At a rally in Toms River, New Jersey on Monday, Bob Hugin, a Republican defying incumbent Democratic President, Sen. Robert Menendez, openly described the reported rain as "Republican Climate."
"This election is about who gets the vote and who does not," said Hugin. "I hope it will rain hard tomorrow."
Loftus and Sarsalari, however, noted that in most places, at least part of the day will be dry, providing a more pleasant window for voters.
The storm usually moves from west to east. In the Great Lakes region and in the Ohio Valley, the worst is expected to occur during the night and early Tuesday, with better weather on Tuesday afternoon. This includes the Midwest as well as most of Kentucky, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and western New York.
In New England, East New York (including New York City) and the Mid-Atlantic coast, the storm will hit a bit later. Electors who have the choice may want to go to the polls in the morning.
With regard to voter turnout, Mr. Loftus said he was particularly concerned about North Carolina and Virginia, where storms should occupy a large portion of the polling hours.
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