China's export machine will continue to anticipate rising US tariffs: Reuters poll

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese exports are expected to grow at a healthy pace in October, as companies took orders before US tariffs rose early in the year, a Reuters poll found.

Import growth should also have been solid, as Beijing steps up investment and further stimulates domestic consumption to counter growing economic barriers.

But their growth rates are expected to remain on a course of gradual deceleration, with the coming orders already showing signs of slowing as companies worry about uncertainties over a several-month trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.

Chinese exports in October were probably up 11 percent from the previous year, down from 14.5 percent in the previous month, but faster than the 9.8 percent gain in August, according to estimates. median of 36 economists poll Reuters.

Import growth is expected to have moderately slowed from 14.3% in September to 14%.

The United States this year levied additional duties of 10% to 25% on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion, to punish what they call the unfair trade practices of the country.

Businesses increased their shipments before the entry into force of stricter US tariffs, although factory surveys showed that export orders had been declining for several months. [nL3N1XC1LJ] [nL3N1X43JC]

Abell Lu, general manager of Chinese battery manufacturer Motoma Power, said he has seen a 10% increase in business demand since their US customers were quick to place more orders before the next tariff line.

STABILIZING GROWTH

China's overall trade surplus is expected to have recovered to $ 35 billion in October from $ 31.7 billion the previous month.

While Chinese exports have so far surprisingly resisted US tariffs, the threat of more rights imposed by Washington in a growing trade dispute has depressed global sentiment and shook the financial markets.

Many economists still believe that the further slowdown in China's foreign trade is a major threat to growth.

Mr. Motoma Power, Lu, also said that his company's recent boom would be short-lived as their US customers were already looking to buy from other countries than China.

More tangible signs of a more pronounced slowdown have appeared. The value of export orders signed in the United States at the largest trade show in China, which ended Sunday, fell by 30.3% over the year. [nL4N1XG2SY]

Many are eagerly awaiting a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the summit of the Group of 20 Leaders to be held in Argentina in late November.

Both parties have been more willing to resolve their trade dispute recently and will hold a delayed security dialogue at the highest level on Friday, after Trump and Xi spoke out over a phone call last week. [nL2N1XH02P]

In the face of the slowdown in the economy and unfavorable growth, China announced in October several measures to stabilize its financial markets, including a central bank project providing credit lines to support small and medium-sized enterprises and a project. Detailed proposal for deduction of income tax.

Beijing has already reduced the amount of cash that banks must hold four times this year and increases its tax expenditures. Import taxes were also reduced, while export tax reductions were increased.

"In the future, we expect to apply more growth and stabilization policies to the financial markets," analysts at China International Capital Corporation wrote.