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In mid-September, the White House's political director, Bill Stepien, sat in the presidential residence in front of Donald Trump and sounded the alarm. Polls showed that Democratic voters were highly motivated before the mid-term elections, Stepien explained, while Republican voters were not – and Trump fueled the complacency of his base by minimizing the threat in November. . "Mr. President," said Stepien, according to sources close to the conversation, "stop saying" Red Wave. "
Trump was perplexed. After fully understanding the narrative of Republican invincibility – backed by a boisterous crowd, a string of special election victories and of course, his own so-called unprecedented achievements and his record number of polls – the president's most popular strove to imagine a radical reprimand of his government. Sensing this, and playing with his ego, Stepien and senior White House officials encouraged Trump to mobilize Republicans by making the election a reality. him. "Tell them you are on the ballot," urged Stepien.
History continues below
That's what the president did. "Go out in 2018," he said at a rally in Missouri at the end of September, launching a more urgent message mid-way, "because you will vote for me in 2018. " If Trump was happy to hold the mid-term elections as a referendum on his work He is only partially satisfied with the results: the Democrats returned to power in part Tuesday, taking control of the House of Representatives in a historical participation rate case that served as a categorical reprimand of the administration and its policies.
On Wednesday morning, at 2 o'clock in the morning, the Democrats regained 26 seats and won at least a handful more, allowing them to control powerful House committees with subpoenas to power. to create all kinds of problems for whites. House.
Sign of the terrain on which the battles were fought for both chambers, the Republicans not only held the Senate, but expanded their majority. Taking advantage of the Republicans' most Republican friends card of the century, the White House celebrated the overthrow of many Democratic senators, including Florida's Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of the United States. Indiana, thus ensuring Senate majority for the next two years.
But the nation's attention was clearly focused on the House. This story, drawn from dozens of interviews over the past year with Republican and Democratic candidates, strategists, activists, and voters, places Tuesday's verdict in the context of the country's growing polarization and cycle. electoral election the most unstable to date. After two years of roller-coaster ride by a president who lives in turmoil and governs with special attention to brilliant objects, the Democrats have returned to the majority in the House by following a simple rule: do not bite the President .
Voter participation was high, regardless of ideological and demographic lines, with both parties effectively nationalizing local and national races. But while Trump was trying to organize the elections on his own, the Democratic candidates were remarkably disciplined to focus the electorate on his party's so-called failures: a Republican tax reform blowing up the deficit and disproportionately benefiting the rich; Republican efforts to deprive millions of people of access to health care; and Republican politicians, whose acquiescence with Trump has worsened the country 's partisan division and diminished his confidence in the government.
Winning the House was the culmination of a simple and direct master plan. While Trump and his fellow Republicans were waiting for a frontal attack on the president himself, the main Democrats – from House Leader Nancy Pelosi to the chairman of the Congressional Campaign Committee, Ben Ray Luján, to the largest donors and former party statesmen – advised the candidates in the House to present themselves hyper-local, non-hysterical campaigns that spoke little about the president.
"I'm not running against Donald Trump. I'm running against Erik Paulsen, "said Dean Phillips, the newly elected Democratic representative of the 3rd District, told POLITICO while he was campaigning two days before the elections. "I'm talking about what people want to talk about, and it's a lot less of Trump than you think." Paulsen, who has lost just over 11 percentage points, represents a suburban Twin Cities neighborhood that Republicans have controlled since 1960. He has repeatedly tried to distance himself from Trump-whose approval rating in the 3rd District fell in the 30s this fall, but it was useless. Phillips called it a buffer for the White House, while the president himself was so irritated by Paulsen's lack of loyalty that he insisted on not sending one but two tweets to him.
Paulsen, still disciplined in mid-October, told POLITICO: "I have a good bipartisan spirit and that's what the Minnesota really likes. This is a salient point for those who are not in love with Trump. On Tuesday, it sounded hollow.
This is not the only place a GOP outgoing candidate is withering in the shadow of Trump. The mid-term elections resulted in the demise of many moderate Republicans, including Mike Coffman of Colorado, Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Peter Roskam of Illinois and Carlos Curbelo, from Florida, among many others – whose individual brands in their metropolitan districts were not enough to overcome the president's devastating unpopularity.
"Republicans have lost the suburbs. I do not know if they've lost them forever, but we've lost them for the moment, "said Liesl Hickey, executive director of the National Republican Congress Committee in 2014." The suburb wanted to send a message. to the president and they have. "
But Republicans have also collapsed in Trump-friendly parts of the country. New York GOP incumbents in office, John Faso, of 19th District and Claudia Tenney from 22North Dakota The district, which has benefited enormously from Trump's approval ratings in the Hudson Valley, has lost its re-election bids. Democrat Max Rose brought his energetic mark to Staten Island and toppled Dan Donovan's representative in Trump District, scoring 9 points. GOP representative Steve Russell was upset in Oklahoma, as two Republican candidates for free seats in pro-Trump districts, Katie Arrington and South Carolina and Danny Tarkanian in Nevada, both failed. .
The biggest GOP loser category on Tuesday was the incumbent operators representing the conservative regions of the country where Trump's position was not decisive – and who has only to take on their own. themselves and their mediocre campaigns. After almost a decade in the majority and enjoying the fruits of favorably drawn districts, holders such as John Culberson of Texas and Leonard Lance of New Jersey had no muscle memory to run efficiently in a difficult environment.
Kansas representative Kevin Yoder led the best campaign of his career – and lost again on Tuesday.
The moderate Republican, a native of the suburbs of Kansas City, knew that he had to pass his run through a needle-sized hole, made smaller every day by Trump. Hillary Clinton won the seat in 2016 and polls revealed conflicting messages on how to address the president. A survey conducted in April 2018 showed that "indecisive" voters wanted Yoder to support Trump, while "persuasive" voters wanted him to stand out from the president – both groups he had to win to succeed . Nevertheless, a brutal Democratic primary left his future opponent, Sharice Davids, tainted by his declared support for the abolition of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (She echoed this comment.) He also raised it – a feat to which dozens of his colleagues did not succeed. But at Labor Day, it was clear that this would not be enough.
Overwhelmed with frustration on a Sunday in September, Yoder telephoned Steve Stivers, president of the NRCC. Word According to him, his group, the campaign arm of the House GOP, planned to reduce by 1.2 million dollars the television expenses that would have supported in the suburbs. But the committee had a poll showing Yoder dragged Davids to a high figure and suddenly pulled the rug out of him. Yoder was informed of developments by the press, not by the committee.
"When people ask me what I think of you, I can not decide to tell them that you are a fucking idiot or a fucking liar," Yoder snorted at Stivers. "But now, I think you are both."
***
House Republicans returned to Washington in January 2018 with a transformed outlook on the mid-term elections. Most of the first year of Trump's term had been disastrous, as a combination of failed political initiatives and presidential mishaps had made the GOP deeply unpopular throughout the country. But things have improved: under intense pressure from party leaders and major donors, Republicans in both houses have rallied to a bill on tax reform that Trump promulgated just before Christmas. Few GOP legislators seemed pleased with the details, but at least they had something to show on the legislative side for their unified control of the government. "Now," President Paul Ryan told members when Congress resumed in January, "we have something to run."
The president had other ideas. Even though a steady stream of positive reviews responded to the Republican tax plan – companies offering bonuses, hiring small businesses – Trump seemed uninterested in selling the product. That he boasts of the size of his nuclear detonation button, calling himself "very stable genius", launching ad hominem attacks against prominent Democrats, opposing the investigation. of the special council on Russia's interference in the 2016 election, or saying that he "would like to see a stop", Trump spent the first months of 2018 apparently taking all chances do not to draw the attention of the nation to the legislation on the rewards of his party.
This upset the Capitol Hill Republicans, mainly Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Although McConnell's room was less threatened in 2018 than Ryan's, the two men privately warned Trump that their majorities were in danger – and invited him to stay on the message. But often it was beyond the control of the president: the the Wall Street newspaper reported in January that Trump had paid a sum of money to adult movie actress Stormy Daniels for hiding a case; in February, 17 people were shot dead in a Florida high school, triggering a passionate national dialogue on gun violence. The following month, Gary Cohn resigned as Trump's chief economic adviser, the latest in a flight from key White House staff.
The Republicans already knew they were going to rise in 2018. The first signs of real problems appeared in June of the previous year in the 6th District, a red bloody republican bastion made vacant by the appointment of Tom Price to head the Department of Health and Human Services. What should have been a snoozer has turned into a slog – the most expensive race in the history of Congress. Allied parties, candidates and outside groups came together to dump about $ 55 million into the suburban district of Atlanta. Republicans had fought the democratic challenges ahead of special elections too tight to be reassured, but it was different: the growing enthusiasm aroused by a previously anonymous challenger, Jon Ossoff, and the panic provoked by the GOP – the loss of $ 18 million to hold a district that Trump won by 23 points – said Democrats could compete anywhere and any where.
"They spent all this money in the beginning," said Kelly, who headed the House's Super Democratic Democratic. "These were games missing for us, and the Republicans felt that they had to win them."
The GOP held firm, beating Ossoff by three points. Still, the victory was expensive – not just because of the price. "We won the battle, but it could have cost us the war," said Bliss, whose super PAC allied to the Republicans spent $ 6 million in the district. "We fixed the problem on Pelosi in this race, and that's when the democrats adapted and started running away from it." Regarding the money spent, Bliss added, "We had no choice – it was a narrative investment – if we had lost in Georgia, there would have been even more Republican retreats."
It also provided for the avalanche of money towards the Democratic candidates. That spring, Keenan Pontoni, who ran Ossoff's race, opened his laptop at midnight most nights and set Act Blue's numbers. At first, $ 100,000 became the norm, then $ 200,000.
The Democrats were on the offensive in the battle for the House, but the GOP's defense collapsed with a wave of retirements. Of the 44 districts left open by Republican incumbents who have retired, resigned or sought higher office, the Democrats have targeted half. Recent history explains why: over the last six rounds at mid-term, the president's party has not kept a single open seat that it had not held two years ago, according to an analysis of Cook's political report . The vacant seats ranged from formerly safe red districts, which became competitive under Trump, to seats won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, as the 8th District that extends from downtown Seattle to hilly farmland.
"It's perhaps the last nail of our coffin," said Brian Walsh, Republican consultant at the head of pro-Trump's outdoor group, America First.
The best-known Republican who called for the resignation is Ryan, who announced in April that he would leave Congress at the end of the year. The decision to remain as a lame speaker disconcerted some party members and led to an internal gossip hangman. Kevin McCarthy, the majority leader in the House, felt exposed by the decision, saying his best chance of succeeding Ryan at the next convention was to take his ease. Feeling the same, Steve Scalise's allies began to murmur about McCarthy's vulnerabilities at the conference and suggest a stealth campaign for the presidency. The tension between the three leaders, and between their staffs, made Capitol Hill speak as spring approached, especially when McCarthy and Scalise were not so subtly mocking to find ground on the other man's right flank. (McCarthy this fall, national announcements promoting his legislation to build a wall at the border, frustrating local Republicans during tough races that were hoping for a rant from the majority leader in his commercials). Even Republicans loyal to Ryan were wondering if he was harming the party by staying around.
In the end, these concerns were unfounded – Ryan had garnered a record $ 200 million for the party since he was speaking – although his premature departure accentuated the speech of Republicans waving the white flag in 2018. Although he regretted having contributed to this perception, Ryan felt liberated, joking with friends that he was happy to be missing from this ballot while Trump was getting bigger after the election.
"I tried to talk to a few people [convince] to stay, it did not stay, "NRCC President Stivers told POLITICO in late August. "We have more retirements than I would have liked, but we have excellent recruits."
Democrats too, and many more.
***
In a gymnasium at Lansing Community College, less than a week before polling day, Elissa Slotkin stepped onto the stage and made a proud statement: "I'm a Midwest Democrat. "
Inspired by the Republicans' vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act and its consequences for her mother, a pre-existing cancer survivor, Slotkin ran for Congress not as a partisan warrior, but as a pragmatic moderator. Face Mike Bishop in the Michigan 8th District, a gerrymandered lot that extends from Lansing to Metro Detroit, Slotkin mastered the art of rhetorical triangulation: reject the GOP as too extreme while denouncing the drift to the left of his own party. Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, presented the political arguments of a seasoned veteran instead of a novice candidate. The race has come to embody the battle for the House: a talented Democratic rookie who has no opposition research to defeat, who supports an outgoing GOP party candidate with mediocre fundraising and no experience of driving a difficult campaign.
Slotkin beat Bishop on Tuesday, winning a few thousand votes in one of the country's tightest races. His triumph reflected the depth of the Democratic recruiting class – and the focus on promoting female candidates for the first time.
Galvanized by the Trump presidency, the Democrats presented a list of historically diverse candidates. At least 133 people of color and 158 candidates for the first time won the primaries in 2018. Many won again on Tuesday, promising to radically change the composition of the 116th Congress. Among this new class are Colin Allred, a former African-American professional football player who won an upset victory over Texas Rep. Pete Sessions in the 32North Dakota District, and also Antonio Delgado in New York, a Harvard graduate and academic in Rhodes, who was strangely described as a "rapper" in racist Republican commercials. But women have been the driving force behind the Democrats' takeover. The party presented 180 women candidates in a general election in the House, breaking the previous record of 120 Democrats, according to the Rutgers Center for Politics and American Women.
One of them, Abigail Spanberger, will be going to Congress next year after defeating Republican Dave Brat at the 7th District. She reached the rockstar status the weekend before her victory, greeted by songs "Go Abby" in the sanctuary of St. Paul's Church last Sunday. She could not walk more than a few feet without being invited to take a selfie with the fans. His "moment of hyper-clarity" in the race took place during a debate in mid-October. After Brat mentioned Pelosi for the second time, she replied, "Abigail Spanberger, that's my name." She then said, "I hope that did not sound stupid. But his unique interlocutor was greeted with applause, both in debate and online. Late-night host James Corden tweeted the message "Now This". video of his remark, which has 2.5 million views.
Spanberger, like Slotkin, is a former CIA employee – and Slotkin said she would not vote for Pelosi as president. As debate intensifies within the Democratic Party over how to defeat Trump's GOP – persuade the middle or mobilize the grassroots – the resumption of Tuesday's session underscores the importance of intelligently designed campaigns who hire the center of the electorate. "We have to go back to the time of Dick Gephardt and Dave Obey to find as many democrats of this substance, of this talent, running in these districts," Kelly said. "The partisanship is changing. These candidates approached their constituencies in a different and nuanced way, and the party let them run their own races. "
Bliss, whose super PAC has attempted to stifle these Democratic recruits in the cradle, has tipped his cap on the new faces of the opposition. "In this environment, if you are allowed to be an apolitical and non-partisan outsider, you will win – a period, an end of discussion," he said. "You do not need a doctorate in political science to know that they will win. And we knew it.
The democratic enthusiasm that reigned in the enthusiasm of the Democrats did more than produce talented candidates: it generated unprecedented amounts of money in a mid-term election.
After years of repression between Republicans and Democrats in the mid-term and low ballot elections, things have turned upside down in 2018: Not only have Democratic candidates outperformed their GOP counterparts, but they have the challengers constantly overvalued the historical operators of the group of operations by wide margins. This financial benefit snowballed as the electoral cycle progressed, to the point that Republicans had conversations about humor about a "green wave" instead a red wave. According to data on media purchases, at the beginning of October, the total expenditure of Democratic House candidates increased by some $ 2 million a day, compared with $ 200,000 for all candidates in the Republican House. .
"Luke Skywalker defeated the Death Star not by building his own star, but with a small X-wing plane, because they did not see it as a threat," said Jesse Ferguson, Democratic strategist and former word of DCCC. "That's what Dem did with the low-dollar donors. We fought the Death Star of Republican Foreign Money with a series of wings in X giving $ 25 at a time. "
But there was a lot of money, too. House Majority PAC and Patriot Majority, the leading fundraising vehicles for Democrats, spent $ 113 million on home shopping. The Hub project has committed over $ 30 million to a multitude of state groups and local groups focused on promoting a progressive message on health care and taxes. Another $ 45 million came from a constellation of outside groups, Giffords PAC, founded by former representative Gabby Giffords; VoteVets, a progressive group working to elect veterans; The League of Conservation Voters, a pro-environmental group.
The former mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, was eagerly awaited in the draw. After paying $ 60 million in 2016 to both parties, Bloomberg, troubled by gun violence and the family separation policy of this summer, only spurred the Democrats in 2018. Between the investments of the House and Senate, its spending has soared to $ 110 million.
This deluge was not felt only in the districts won by the Democrats, but in the Republicans. With a rapidly expanding map and limited resources, the GOP was forced to triage its holders – often investing in one district at the expense of another.
"They had money, fuck," said Bliss, the Republican leader of the super PAC. "They could take risks and spend money on seats they know they have no chance of winning, just to make us spend there."
***
Money was a sensitive topic for Republicans in 2018.
At the end of Labor Day weekend, the NRCC commission issued a memo stating, "Republicans are well placed to maintain control of the House." Beyond the wave of "strong" recruits and "resilient" party, the optimism of the committee That summed up to a line: "The cavalry arrives". House Republicans were increasingly worried about the cash deficit of their countrywide campaigns and the party apparatus promised them imminent help.
It's never happened – and "The Cavalry is Coming" has become a staple in the GOP.
Holding the majority in the House in such a toxic political environment would never have been easy. And as the parties themselves are continually weakened by external money, it is difficult to assess the NRCC's fundraising prowess in a comprehensive and equitable context. That being said, Republican critics said the commission's strategy for spending the money it had (more than $ 100 million for the cycle) was irresponsible, at the rash limit.
The largest recipient of NRCC funds in 2018 was Virginia representative Barbara Comstock, whose suburb of Washington, DC, Trump, lost 10 points. Comstock and her allies, well-known followers of the party, spent much of 2018 perpetuating the myth that she could defeat the political and demographic tendencies of her district, namely, that her brand was strong enough to survive a blue wave. potential. But the public Polls have never confirmed this hypothesis: Comstock was systematically following his rival, Jennifer Wexton, at double digits. That did not stop NRCC from spending more than $ 5 million on racing until October, when everyone knew the campaign was over. Wexton ended up winning by 12 points.
At the same time, the NRCC has also invested heavily in the 6th District, where outgoing Republican Mike Coffman – another favorite of the GOP establishment – was a dead man walking. Public and private polls, as well as focus groups set up by allied organizations of the GOP, showed that Coffman had no chance of winning. Yet, the political party committee made the decision only on October 19th. Meanwhile, the NRCC was barely spending in California … where many Republican incumbents were threatened – early October. A little money arrived late, but it did not help many incumbent Republicans dismissed by Democratic candidates.
The expenses of a party committee are still the subject of rumors and criticism in Washington, since much of the money comes from transfers from the campaign accounts of its members. The NRCC President, Stivers, has been the focus of special attention this year for playing favorites with some members, by collecting insufficient funds and spending money on the money. he had inefficiently. The emergence of the Congress Leadership Fund also added to the tension within the party. According to him, Stivers had cannibalized the fundraising capacity of his organization. Bliss, who was invited by Ryan to lead the outside group, monopolized much of the money raised by Republican House leaders, resulting in months of scandal between the CLF and the NRCC.
The reason the NSI became the preferred repository of the party elite was simple: versatility. Quand il a décroché le poste le plus prestigieux du monde, Bliss a invité Ryan et le conseil d’administration du groupe à créer un programme sur le terrain, affirmant que des opérations sur le terrain en octobre feraient une plus grande différence que la centième attaque diffusée à la télévision. Ils se sont mis d’accord pour un essai au 2Dakota du Nord District, et avec son succès, a rapidement commencé à ouvrir deux nouveaux bureaux sur le terrain chaque semaine. Les structures étaient identiques: un chef de district rémunéré travaillant à plein temps, supervisant un groupe de volontaires, pour la plupart des républicains des collèges et des lycées qui passaient leur soirée à effectuer des opérations bancaires téléphoniques et à sonner à la porte pour obtenir des cartes-cadeaux Amazon pour les des grandes performances. Les démocrates ont gagné beaucoup des 40 districts où le groupe était présent, mais le match au sol de la CLF a probablement permis d’économiser au moins quelques sièges républicains. L’un appartient à Andy Barr, dans le Kentucky, au 6th District. La fin de semaine précédant les élections, trois équipes d'une douzaine de volontaires ont chacune parcouru le district à pied – comme ils le faisaient depuis des mois -, tandis qu'une douzaine de volontaires passaient des appels téléphoniques. Leur liste de cibles avait été réduite au cours des six derniers mois et ne comptait plus que 46 000 électeurs identifiés comme des républicains loyaux et à faible proportion. Le challenger démocrate, Amy McGrath, une ancienne et impressionnante ancienne pilote de marine, a perdu par moins de 7 000 voix.
Sa perte ne pourrait pas diminuer la performance stellaire des démocrates mardi, ni masquer la lutte interne qui devait bientôt se jouer à la nouvelle majorité à la Chambre. Mme McGrath était l’une des dizaines de candidats démocrates à avoir plaidé pour un changement de direction du parti – empêchant Pelosi d’intervenir à nouveau – en tant qu’oratrice – et bien qu’elle ait perdu, nombre de ses compagnons de voyage arriveront à Washington au début de l’année prochaine, se sentant tenus de donner suite. Avec les démocrates au pouvoir à la Chambre pour la première fois depuis 2010, et Trump se préparant à sa propre réélection, l’approche du parti au cours des deux prochaines années aura des répercussions bien au-delà.
"Je pense que le parti démocrate doit être réinventé et que son message doit être repensé", a déclaré Phillips, le prochain démocrate qui a renversé le siège du Minnesota détenu par les républicains pendant six décennies. «Je suis fermement convaincu que le temps est venu de changer de leadership au sein du caucus démocrate. Et pas seulement générationnellement. Je ne pense pas que la direction actuelle soit en mesure de collaborer. Je ne pense pas que cela a été démontré. Et si ce pays a besoin de quelque chose en ce moment, c’est sa collaboration qui consiste à mettre de côté les armes politiques et à se remettre au travail. "
Le pays a également besoin de nuances, ce qui n’est pas le fort du Congrès. "Il est plus facile pour les gens de dire bon, mauvais, noir, blanc, rouge, bleu, mauvais, bon, démocrate, républicain", a déclaré Spanberger lors d'une promenade sur une autoroute de la Virginie, se dirigeant vers son dernier rendez-vous avant le jour du scrutin . «Prenez cette affaire des frontières ouvertes….» Spanberger a ensuite lancé un monologue de deux minutes sur la complexité des ordonnances de détention et des mandats d'arrêt, le quatrième amendement et les villes sanctuaires, les questions de compétence et les procédures judiciaires impliquant des juges.
Avec la transformation du Parti démocrate et l’attaque incessante de Trump à la Maison Blanche, ne sera-t-il pas difficile de démontrer cette nuance? "Oui," répondit-elle avec un rire facile.
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