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The 2018 elections are widely touted as a "shared decision" for President Trump – the Democrats won the House of Representatives while losing seats in the Senate – but this framework actually reduces all that remains to be done Democrats and Progressives to celebrate the results.
Three of the greatest stories that direct our politics are now in ruins and their deaths have important implications for the future of the Trump presidency, public opinion at the time Trump and the character of our country .
Trump has magical political powers and his lies "work".
For a year and a half, many of those who misunderstood in 2016 have been crouching in some way, thinking that Trump has a mystical hold on public opinion, which means that polls revealing his deep unpopularity are missing. . .
They did not miss anything, and neither did we. Trump is truly deeply unpopular, and this has resulted in a great reprimand at the polls, in the form of the Democratic Party's takeover by the House, which was motivated by the widespread desire to control his presidency.
Starting Wednesday morning, Democrats won 27 seats in the House and could have up to 230 if everything is over. The path leading to the majority of the Dem has crossed not only suburbs leaning in blue, but also surprise areas leaning in red. This was made possible thanks to a huge expenditure of money and a good organization, as well as to good candidates in difficult areas, which helped to widen the map, factors that undoubtedly been motivated by a brutal reaction from Trump. As one GOP member said, in these elections, voters "checked" yes "or" no "for the president."
All of this happened after Trump intensified the lie in an extraordinary way. Perhaps most importantly, he (and the Republicans) has relentlessly lied about the GOP's desire to protect people with preexisting conditions. The frequency of lies led some to assert that it was overwhelming the ability of our political system to absorb lies. But exit polls have shown that major majorities said Democrats would better protect pre-existing conditions, as well as huge majorities among those who ranked health care among the most important Democrats. Three red states are on track to pass voting initiatives aimed at developing Medicaid.
Trump has also stepped up the lie about the migrant caravan, which switches to the second component of the story "Trump has magical powers": has complete control of the news cycle. As he wanted, the elections magically turned into a struggle for immigration which, if it made the headlines, guaranteed the victory of the Republicans. In connection with this idea, the mystical sense of Trump's public opinion leads him to speak to the real anxieties of the public about the problem we all miss.
But in the end, the Republicans conceded Trump's racial and xenophobic panic put the House GOP incumbents in the educated and suburban neighborhoods of bigger peril. regardless, Despite Trump's best efforts to have the elections focused entirely on immigration, he is Democrats who have largely fixed the election agenda by keeping the focus on health care. Analysis found Health care has been the most discussed topic in television ads in 45% of local media markets this year. And it was the most important issue for voters.
Democrats do not have an answer to the nationalist response.
Trump attempted to turn the elections into a referendum on xenophobic populist ethno-nationalism, emigrating destitute migrants hundreds of kilometers from the southern border of the United States, into a national emergency orchestrated by globalists determined to undermine America from the inside and even promising to end the citizenship. Some have argued that the Democrats had paved the way for Trump by failing to respond to Trump's legitimate globalized immigration and globalization concerns, as if they were just tripping by shouting "Abolish ICE," giving Trump more food to paint them open borders. It is also an argument that past and present advisers, such as Stephen K. Bannon and Stephen Miller, love to argue.
It is true that the Democrats have been more interested in health care than in immigration. But it was a strategic decision (correct). At the same time, many Democrats have responded to Trump's racial nationalism: what might be called inclusive patriotism or civic nationalism, the idea that our national pride should be in our commitment to political equality and economic opportunity for all, regardless of race, ethnicity or religion.
In fact, Democrats have largely condemned Trump's accusations of trump and xenophobia, their support for sensible immigration reform, which involves the legalization of millions of undocumented immigrants, and denounced Trump's inhumanity towards asylum seekers as contrary to American values. In a sense, the Democrats offered another response to Trump's racial nationalism by presenting a host of candidates with extraordinary racial and ethnic diversity. Candidates such as Antonio Delgado, of New York, target of one of the most racist commercials of the cycle, have won unexpected victories by showcasing their credentials and merit. The anti-immigrant Kris Kobach went to Kansas.
It is true that this argument is far from being settled. The Democratic Chamber must put forward a real immigration program. Trump's re-election campaign in 2020 is another major test of the Democratic response to the allegedly nationalistic response. But the results of last night have highlighted a brilliant response.
In addition, another key element of Trump's nationalism – trade policy – probably dropped it last night. Democrats easily won Senate races in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and won governorates in the last three, including the ousting of Scott Walker, an anti-worker worker , Wisconsin, an incredible win for Dem. That was a remarkable reversal of the "blue wall," Trump said, crunching for his insistence on the trade. Trump's trade wars and theatrical belligerence with China did nothing for the Republicans of the "Trump Country".
Democrats can not have a multiracial majority to deal with Trumpism.
Trump's counselors and supporters are constantly making veiled variations of this argument. They suggested that the objections to Trump's racist, xenophobic and cultural provocations (and to his cruel agenda of immigration) are limited to the left obsessed with the politics of identity and that they do not not limit to galvanize the white base of the GOP, but also to have a tacit majority appeal. But it's hard to reconcile that with what happened last night.
Here, some major warnings are required. Trump's closure strategy likely galvanized the white vote in many red states, allowing Republicans to win Senate seats in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Andrew Gillum's defeat in the Florida governorship race against one of the country's worst Trumpists (you remember Ron DeSantis' racial whistling and his presence at type conferences who believes that the "only serious racial war" is against whites?) terrible blow.
But for all the above reasons, the results in the House show a multiracial majority rising to deal with trumpism. As Ron Brownstein had predicted, all of these Trump provocations have further polarized the country between blue collar, rural, evangelical Christians and aging whites on one side, and all of these groups. on the other side of this cultural divide: young voters, minorities and laymen, socially liberal whites, graduates of higher and suburban education, especially women.
These latter groups helped bring together a majority in the battle for the House. Fueled by massive mid-term participation, Democrats could win the popular vote in the House of seven or more points. It is true that this majority faced a wall of voters on the opposite side of Trump unanimously, and it remains to be seen whether a longer-term realignment is underway, in which whites educated at colleges would miss to the democrats.
But it remains to be seen if this anti-Trump majority will last against him by 2020, he can and did mobilize, rising to put a big drag on Trump's presidency – and on Trump himself.
Read more:
Gary Abernathy: Mike DeWine's Moderate Approach Gives Republicans a Victory to Governor in Ohio
Ed Rogers: Democrats win House, but Trump won elections
Karen Tumulty: The replica of Hillary Clinton's defeat has finally arrived
Alexandra Petri: Texas, I see now that you love me and misunderstand this Beto, and I embrace you
E.J. Dionne: The revealing measure of Trump's weakness
Megan McArdle: Democrats and Republicans lose this cultural war
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