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In Dallas County, Republicans run the House with an overwhelming majority after the 2010 mid-term elections, when they redrawed the districts of the County House in 2011, Jones said. By maximizing the number of seats that Republicans could win in 2012, the shooters left too many constituencies in the county safe from the GOP's intrepid voters. After seven years of rapid demographic change, Republicans have been haunted, Jones said.
In addition, being "politically out of shape" was a problem for many incumbents who had not experienced fierce competition for years, he said.
The gains of the Democrats will have a "carpentry effect", showing more high-quality candidates to run for seats in the House in 2020, he said.
"Republicans will not be able to have the luxury of running only against any random candidate, a guy or a dudette who passes to classify and run a campaign including a Facebook page and nothing else," he said. he declared.
"They will face tough, well-funded campaigns run by talented professionals who are determined to win.It is a different environment than the one that most of them have experienced during the last decade."
Smith of St. Edward's said the rapidly changing suburbs would be a test for Republicans in the House.
"We still have conservative Republicans in Midland and Odessa, but the suburban Republicans have to say:" What are we representing? ", He said. "They are not democrats, but they are not caucuses of liberty either, and these seats could remain democratic for a while."
But Smith also warned against an excessive reading of Tuesday's results. Campaigns like O 'Rourke's are not widespread, and President Donald Trump's base will likely be strong in 2020, he said.
"We have to wait and see," Smith said. "Some of these seats were open seats, which are always easier to obtain, and that was during the mid-term elections, which tend to go against the incumbent president."
President's race and redistribution
On December 1, House Republicans will meet in private to discuss the next speaker's choice.
César Blanco, Democrat of El Paso, chairman of the House's Democratic House campaign committee in the Texas House of Representatives, said that "the chessboard has been reset" for the benefit of one " bipartisan president "who neither fears nor conceals the support of the Democrats.
"Mathematically, Republicans know that since the Democrats won 12 seats, this decision will be a bipartisan decision," Blanco said.
Berry, a GOP consultant, said: "Republicans still have a majority in the Texas House of Representatives and should choose who will be the next president, not the Democrats."
Rice, said Jones, said a "silent majority" of House Republicans is caught between the two.
"I do not think they're looking for a Dan Patrick doppelganger in the House," he said. On the other hand, many want to see Conservative bills passed, he said.
"They're going to pick somebody who's steering a course much closer to Joe Straus than to Dan Patrick," Jones said.
Tuesday's results reinforced the candidacies of speakers from Straus' allies such as the GOP representatives. Drew Darby of San Angelo, Four Price of Amarillo and Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, he said. Angleton GOP representative Dennis Bonnen, who appeared to be gaining momentum in recent weeks, was weakened by the Democrats push, Jones said. The most conservative candidates announced, Flower Mound's Tan Parker and Weatherford's Phil King, are "much less viable" with 67 Democrats on the verge of sitting, he said.
By 2020, Democrats need a net gain of only nine additional seats to take control of the House – which would be the first time in 18 years.
If they did, Democrats could submit distribution plans in 2021, said Democratic consultant Martin, who testified by redistributing the lawsuits. The Senate controlled by the GOP would object, but having a plan adopted by the House "that meets the delimitation criteria" provided for by federal law would be helpful if the cards ended up in court, Martin said.
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