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The performance is surprising because October was the first full month in which the new US $ 200 billion worth of Chinese goods were in effect. Economists and Chinese government officials recently announced that they were expecting a slowdown in export growth in the last few months of the year.
One of the reasons for this increase is that companies want to avoid even higher duties in the next few months: US tariffs on the $ 200 billion worth of Chinese goods that entered service on September 24 should go from 10% to 25% by the end of the month. l & # 39; year.
This "encourages exporters to ship their orders to the United States," wrote a note to customer Louis Kuijs, head of economic studies in Asia within the research firm Oxford Economics. But he added that this is "obviously not all history".
The decline of the Chinese currency also plays a role. The yuan has fallen nearly 10% against the US dollar since February, as investors are increasingly concerned about the health of the Chinese economy and the potential impact of the growing trade war.
A weaker currency makes Chinese products more competitive than competing exporters and partly offsets the impact of US tariffs.
China also benefited in October from excellent exports to major markets such as the European Union and Japan.
"World demand may be better than what we feared," Kuijs said.
Economists are still predicting that the good conditions of China's huge export sector will not last.
The ANZ investment bank announced Thursday that it was expecting real hardship to begin after US tariffs on the $ 200 billion Chinese goods reach 25 percent by the end of the year. of the year.
US President Donald Trump said he is ready to extend tariffs to effectively cover all Chinese exports to the United States, which exceeded $ 500 billion last year.
Trump is expected to discuss trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month, but experts doubt that the two leaders can agree on a speedy resolution of the conflict.
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