The 2018 map looked a lot like 2012 … and that made me think of 2020

Democrats having won the House but not the Senate on Tuesday – and President Trump staying at the White House – we are moving toward two years of divided government. That does not mean that there will be no news, like … oh, let's say, the president sacking the attorney general the day after the election.

But that means that virtually every political battle will be launched in 2020. And 2020 will be a unique year in that the House, the Senate and the presidency are potentially at stake. Whatever the choice of the presidency? The last time, Trump took advantage of the Electoral College to win the Tipping Point State (Wisconsin) of about 1 percentage point even though he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points. If Trump has the same advantage in 2020, it could allow him to win a second term.

However, the advantage of the electoral college is historically quite ephemeral. Relatively subtle changes in political conditions can make the constituency more than just helping you hurt yourself. In 2008 and 2012, for example, the electoral college worked in the interest of the Democrats, since Barack Obama would probably have won in case of shared votes.

So here are some scary news for Trump: the 2018 map looks more like 2012 than in 2016, the Democrats behaving pretty well in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three states that essentially won of Trump in the elections of two years ago.

As a "fun" experience in the aftermath of the elections, I decided to add up the total popular votes for the American House in each state, based on ABC News' vote count on Wednesday afternoon. It's not a perfect exercise, far from it. Voting is still counted in many states; There are a few dozen congressional districts where one party (usually Republicans) has not nominated a candidate. I made an adjustment for a slightly different problem, namely that Florida did not bother counting votes in undisputed ballots, which cost Democrats about 720,000 votes on their popular vote count. this state.

Aside from these warnings, here is the map you offer if you count the popular vote. This should sound familiar. In fact, it's exactly the same card Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012, except that Ohio went to Republicans. That would have given 314 votes for the Democrats and 224 for the GOP.

Democrats won shaded states in light blue, but less than 5 percentage points. It is therefore important to note which States are do not in light blue but plain blue instead. The Democrats won the popular vote in Michigan by 7 percentage points, Wisconsin 8 points, Pennsylvania 10 points and Minnesota 11 points. In other parts of the country, they won Nevada and Colorado with 6 points each, New Hampshire with 12 points, Virginia with 15 points and New Mexico with 19 points.

Pink states – where Republicans earned less than 5 percentage points – are also interesting, mainly because they include Texas, where Democrats lost the popular vote for the House by just 3.6 percentage points and Democrat Beto O 'Rourke lost his race in the Senate by only 2.6 points. It's not yet as if Texas was about to tip: the Democrats almost won the victory, but they have not exceeded their goals, even in a beautiful blue year. But he probably deserves to be included in a group of sunbelt states including North Carolina, Arizona and possibly Georgia (where the Democrats lost the popular vote by 6 points), as places where the Democrats can face a good year. Of these, Arizona was the best for Democrats on Tuesday night; They are currently 1.7 points behind the popular vote of the House and could still gain ground in that state, as many Maricopa County ballots still have to be counted.

In less favorable developments for the Democrats, they had very disappointing results in Ohio, where they lost the race for governorship and where their candidates lost the popular vote of the House by 5.5 percentage points. Ohio has not yet hit the road to Missouri, where Democratic congressional candidates lost 13 points Tuesday night, but the situation may be coming true.

But all this is a little tautological: Of course the card suits you well when you have a good night. Why not in an average year, where the overall vote is close enough? Democrats are currently leading the national popular vote in the House by about 6 percentage points, and they will likely total 7 or maybe 8 percentage points as more votes are counted, most from the voting states. California, Oregon, Washington). On the other hand, the Democratic margin is a little inflated by the fact that Republicans have left countless districts. So let's go and subtract 6 points from the 2018 margin of the Democrat in each state; This is a reference for what things could have looked like in a nearly neutral year:

This is certainly not an excellent map for Democrats, but it is not bad either. There are 217 strong Democratic votes on this map, compared to 225 strong Republican votes; the other 96 are hotly contested, but the Democrats drag in Florida while narrowly heading into Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If 2020 was contested on this basis, you would not say that either side had an undeniable advantage at the Electoral College.

What is clear, however, is the importance of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (although you can also add Minnesota to the mix). Win them all – let's call them the North Way – and the Democrats do not need Florida, if they hold the other states. Losing all three, and even Florida would not be enough. Instead, they will have to win Florida and at least one from North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia as part of what could be called a sunbelt strategy.

Hillary Clinton's problem was that Trump had behaved well in the Northern Path states – and she had not campaigned enough – but at the same time, the Sunbelt strategy was not yet ripe. She did a lot better than a typical Democratic candidate in Arizona and Texas, but not enough to win a win there.

Getting stuck between the strategy of the Northern Trail and the sunscreen is a significant risk for Democrats: it is where their electoral college problems become the most acute. And while Texas' potential addition to Sunbelt's state group makes it more intriguing, Tuesday night's results suggest that the Northern Way is still the path of least resistance for a Democrat who hopes to win the College. electoral. If Trump has lost the benefit of doubt from the voters of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, he may not have such a huge advantage over an electoral college in 2020.