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The last few weeks of NFL football have been very nice to the public. Since week 7, 33 teams have received at least 56% of all bets on the spread. These 33 teams are 25-8 against the gap, including 10-3 last week.
We have seen chalky favorites like the Panthers, Patriots, Chiefs, Bears and Vikings not only cover, but do it easily. Carolina beat the Bucs by 14 and the gap by 8 points, and that was the margin closest to the peloton.
So which teams should you return to the 10th week of the NFL season? And which competitor of the Super Bowl is scary? Now check out SportsLine to see which teams win more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that outperformed 98% of the experts that NFLPickWatch.com has followed in the past two seasons.
For a punisher with contrarian tendencies like me, this trend did not go well for me, although I took advantage of the Chiefs-8.5 arbitration last week because I felt that was a bad line, which turned out. Instead of being afraid of it, however, it just makes me want to be more contrarian than ever before.
I mean, they did not build all those casinos in the desert because the public keeps winning, does not it?
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) against Atlanta Falcons
Last week, I bet against the Browns because I felt the line was undervaluing the Chiefs, especially with all the changes made to the coaches Cleveland was facing. This week, I think the line is not giving enough credit to Cleveland in this game. The Falcons are overrated after defeating the Redskins last weekend. Combine that with the Browns getting crushed themselves and you get that line. Honestly, as I write these lines on Wednesday, I would advise you to wait a bit because I would not be surprised to see this line go to 6 or even 6.5 with the gravity of the action on the d & # 39; s side. # 39; Atlanta.
Still, even if it is not the case, I like the Browns a lot here. The Falcons' defense played well last week, but it remains the same unit with more than 28 points per game in 2018. The Browns will be able to move the ball against it. Falcons 27, Browns 24
Dallas Cowboys at the Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43)
I love the Eagles against spreading here too, but I'm a bigger fan of pennies. The Cowboys have left the friendly boundaries of Jerry World four times this season and have scored a total of 54 points in four games. This is a bad attack that is worse on the road and is facing a good defense that has just moved on. The main reason I'm not so excited about the Eagles that cover the 6.5 is that Dallas has a good defense in itself, which makes the submarine even more attractive.
In addition, these two teams tend to play games less significant. They play twice a season, and the basement has gone 7-3 in the last five years, including a 4-1 mark in the previous five games played at Philly. Eagles 23, Cowboys 13
New York Giants (+3) to San Francisco 49ers
Nick Mullens came out of nowhere to tear the Raiders last Thursday, and if you want to rely on him for two weeks in a row, well, you have the floor. I will take the points with the giants instead. Do not mistake yourself; it's not that I think the giants are good or anything. They are not, but they could be better than the 49ers and I'm not sure of the advantage that the Niners have to play against a pitch facing an empty stage.
In terms of trends, San Francisco has been favored in eight games since the start of the 2016 season. He is 1-7 Away in these eight games, including a 0-5 record against home away from home. So, again, if you want to score points with a team of 2-7 on his quarterback at the third string, I admire your belief. I just can not be with you. Giants 27, 49ers 17
Bonus Bonus SportsLine
Washington Redskins at the Tampa Bay BuccaneersFitzmagic and the Buccaneers welcome the Washington Redskins this week. They are favored by 3 points with a total of 51.5. I have a strong game for this game that you can play only on my SportsLine page.
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2018 season |
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