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In a N.F.L. season that has had more than its share of tight games, this week's announcement unbalanced. Thursday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers and the Sunday afternoon game between the New Orleans Saints and the Cincinnati Bengals are the only two of the week in which both teams beat records. It was a series of mismatches that resulted in four games having a 9.5-point gap or more, the worst being the 16.5-point advantage awarded to the Kansas City Chiefs in their home game against the poor Cardinals of Arizona.
Of course, this creates a lot of trouble, so if the fans of the very favored teams decided to make other plans, they might want to keep an eye on the scores Sunday, in case the situation is spoiled.
Here is an overview of N.F.L. Week 10, with all the choices made against the points gap.
Last week's record: 8-5
Overall record: 75-55-3
The best Sunday games
Saints in Bengals, 1 pm, Fox
Ask almost everyone who is the best wide receiver of the N.F.L. is, and they are likely to say Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. Some might add Adam Thielen. It's time for Michael Thomas to participate in this conversation.
The 880 yards at Thomas's pass put him behind Jones and Thielen, but his 70 receptions are second in the N.F.L. 78, and the efficiency with which he achieved these numbers is unprecedented.
To put it simply: when Drew Brees throws the ball in his direction, Thomas catches it.
The third-year Saints catcher (7-1) had the best game of his career against the undefeated Rams, with 12 assists for 211 yards. He only needed 15 goals (and a phone) to get there. And this performance actually lowered his reception percentage.
In total, Thomas captured 70 of the 79 assists, leading the league with a receiving percentage of 88.6%, which would be the highest record recorded by a wide receiver with 50 catches or more since tracking targets in 1992 include the halves, who usually catch more manageable swing passes, the only player to have a better receiving percentage on as many catches as Thomas was Thomas, a Saints halfback, who caught 77 passes out of 84 throws in 2013, but managed only 6.11 yards per target, far from Michael Thomas's mark this season of 11.14.
Against the Bengals (5-3), it's hard to guess how often Brees will look like Thomas. The fearsome Saints can be expected to make an offensive broadcast against Cincinnati's terrible defense, and when they roll, the ball tends to spread. But if one thing has become perfectly clear is that Thomas does not need many opportunities to make his presence felt. To choose: Saints -5.5
Seahawks at Rams, 4:25 pm, CBS
Even after a perfect stoppage of their perfect season against the Saints last week, the Rams (8-1) are tied for the best record of the N.F.L. That did not stop Aaron Donald, the best defenseman on the team, from talking as if his team was fighting for a playoff spot.
"We are not panicking, we are not worried," he said after the loss to New Orleans. "We will make corrections to fix it and continue to be better."
Recent problems are mainly on the defensive side, as Jared Goff and the offense have been held under the 30-point mark only twice this season. With Seattle halfback Chris Carson, who has injured his thigh and hip, it's hard to believe the Seahawks can follow. To choose: Rams -9.5
Jaguars in Colts, 13h, CBS
It was a difficult start to the season for the Colts (3-5) and decent for the Jaguars (3-5), but whatever their records, it's Indianapolis that is in full swing, and the The team can continue in the same vein if it manages to put the ball in Marlon Mack's hands as often as possible this week. Mack exploded in the two weeks before the Colts farewell, with 258 yards rushing and three touchdowns, and is the best chance to run a Jacksonville defense that is the weakest against the race. To choose: Colts -3
Cowboys in Eagles, 20.20, NBC
Amari Cooper was supposed to be the missing piece for the Cowboys (3-5). He had some moments of glory in a loss to Tennessee, but overall he was far from the hype, scoring five catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Dallas is striving to save its season – the Upshot playoff simulator gives the team only 6% of the playoffs if it loses this week – and although a win could be a daunting challenge, the changing relationship between Dak Prescott and Cooper could be the key to this closure. To choose: Cowboys +7
Thursday match
Panthers at Steelers, 8:20 pm, Fox and NFL network
The Thursday night games have the reputation of not having exciting matches, but this week's contest is a battle between two of the most prominent teams in the NF. The Panthers (6-2) have won three consecutive victories with a heavy attack that has produced a ton of points and a defense that seems of caliber in the playoffs. The Steelers (5-2-1) have won four straight wins with a balanced offensive that has developed around running back James Conner. There were some slight concerns that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would miss the match, but Pittsburgh seems to have him and the rest of his key players in place and should be doing business at home. To choose: Steelers -3.5
Other Sunday games
Cardinals to chefs, 1 pm, Fox
With two more touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes can break Len Dawson's franchise record with 30, and if he does it this week, he'll be able to achieve the feat in four games less than Dawson in 1960. The way it's distributed is even more impressive the rating throws. Seven went to Tyreek Hill, six each to Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt, and six other players were between one and three.
Winning against the Cardinals (2-5) should be fairly easy – even if Mahomes does not reach the Dawson record – but Las Vegas is very likely underestimating the recent improvement in Arizona with a gap of points as huge. To choose: Cardinals +16.5
Bear Lions, 1 pm, Fox
The Bears (5-3) may have had their best defensive effort of the season last week and they did it without Khalil Mack, the linebacker of the superstar who's been away for a second week right now. Now, Chicago recovers Mack for a flight N.F.C. North Clash with Lions (3-5). A division title is within reach of the Bears if they can continue to escape, and if Mack is really back to normal, Detroit should be a retarder. To choose: Bear -6.5
Falcons at Browns, 1 pm, Fox
Completing a series of epic defeats was a good thing, but some early season wins created unrealistic expectations of the Browns' position (2-6-1). This does not mean that there is no room for optimism. Denzel Ward was fantastic, Baker Mayfield had his moments of glory and the team has a very young and very talented core. But they remain a team that is rightly an outsider at home, especially against a team like the Falcons (4-4) that can attack Cleveland's defense in different ways to find the holes that are invariably created by a lack of overall depth. To choose: Falcons -4
Patriots at the Titans, 13h, CBS
First-year coach Mike Vrabel scored the year of the Titan season (4-4) by imposing his style of play on his opponents, slowing things down and keeping the score low on both sides. They have not scored more than 28 points and no more than 27. Now, Vrabel, a long-time star for the Patriots (7-2) will face his former team, and his coach Bill Belichick, a man who has heavily influenced this style of grinding game. If anyone can avoid falling into Vrabel's traps, that's Belichick. To choose: Patriots -6.5
Invoices to the Jets, 13h, CBS
Nobody seems to know when Sam Darnold was hurt – not even Darnold – but the rookie quarterback was in a walking boot at the start of the week and is unlikely to play, leaving Josh McCown to start quarterback for the Jets (3-6). A veteran who threw 18 touchdowns last season is the type of quarterback that the Bills (2-7) would probably like to have at the beginning of a week with Nathan Peterman and Matt Barkley seconding him. To choose: Jets -6.5
Red skins in buccaneers, 1 pm Fox
Like Icarus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is known for his ascent to the sky and then for his return to Earth. Last week, it was Carolina's defense that melted his wax wings and intercepted him twice in a 42-28 shot, including a fourth-quarter that nearly settled the game. The Redskins (5-3) are not a Carolina-level team and face a series of costly wounds for their offensive lineup, but they need this win to consolidate their lead in the formation of N.F.C. East before their next games against Philadelphia. It's hard to see the Buccaneers (3-5) doing much more than doing a show, with Fitzpatrick defying Washington's secondary goal on aggressive shots at his star receivers, but in the end. To choose: Redskin +3
Chargers at Raiders, 16:05, Fox
The Chargers (6-2) may not be the leaders, but they are clearly the second best team in the A.F.C. West and are currently running a five-game winning streak. The Raiders (1-7) made fun of what could be their last season at Oakland and probably do not have the players to make a competitive match even if they decide to try. Los Angeles, who plays on the road, could be struggling to get the 10-point advantage he would need to cover the points gap – the team did not mark that margin only three times this season – but among all the big favorites this week, the Chargers seems to be the most likely to cover. To choose: Chargers -9.5
Dolphins at Packers, 4:25 pm, CBS
Regardless of the record, the Packers (3-4-1) form a much better team than the Dolphins (5-4). Even Miami's most obvious skill – capturing interceptions – is not really on a cold day in Green Bay against a quarterback who has only started an interception all season. Dolphins coach Adam Gase, however, was optimistic, recognizing that Rodgers was skilfully avoiding rollovers, but told reporters, "Maybe he'll change his mind about this game." To choose: Dolphins +9.5
Monday match
The giants at 49ers, 8:15 pm, ESPN
Due to a wrist injury that forced C. Beathard to miss out on last week's game, Nick Mullens was forced to take up his duties as the third quarter-final in San Francisco. Expectations were low for a non-recruited 23-year-old who spent the entire past season on the training team. But thanks to a combination of brave passes, several superb pieces from his opponent George Kittle and Oakland's complete lack of respect to pose as a competitive team, Mullens came out and realized the best start for a 49ers history quarter, throws for 262 yards and three touchdowns.
Now, Mullens and the 49ers (2-7) will have the opportunity to recreate this magic against the Giants (1-7), a team that does not seem as determined to lose as the Raiders, but manages to lose the same way every week. . To choose: 49ers -3
All hours are in the East
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