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MEXICO – As the number of migrants in Mexico increases, their calendar in the United States accelerates and the certainty of their arrival is less doubtful, the question becomes: what does the final phase look like?
Based on recent history, President Trump's promise to stop them and the shelter capacity in Tijuana, the future of the caravan is discouraging, not to say bleak, and probably disappointing.
"When I'm at the border, I will ask for asylum," said Elvis Romero, a Guatemalan immigrant with swollen feet, wrapped in medical tape under a blazing sun in Juchitan, Mexico. "I will ask President Trump to give me the opportunity to stay there because I want a better life for myself."
According to sources, the United States is working behind the scenes with the Mexican government to reduce the size of the caravan, but thousands are likely to arrive at the US border in a few weeks. About 7,000 people are now part of the caravan, although their numbers are constantly fluctuating.
What happens then when several thousand migrants arrive in Tijuana, a city with reception centers already overloaded with women and children? Do they live on the street or does the city or state provide them with shelter? For how long?
Given President Trump's threat to slow down or "measure" the number of asylum applications processed per day, where will asylum seekers come together?
Experts say that we do not know what will happen and how the slaughter will end.
The migrant caravan made headlines in international news for weeks: members walked miles under the scorching sun and staggered under overwhelming heat, before shivering cold when they met the colder climate of Mexico City. But he is now within reach of the border – and people are paying attention to the aftermath of the events.
The existing waiting list at the San Ysidro Port of Entry, south of San Diego, already has 2,500 people, and getting a chance to enter the US can take up to six weeks .
The place where migrants usually wait their turn is already a showcase of despair.
Dozens of people come each morning to surround a local official who keeps a diary containing hundreds of names. Each name has a number. On the basis of the number of asylum claims, the United States agrees to treat that day which determines the number of names called.
If it goes from 60 or 70 a day to less than 10 or 20, the bottleneck creates a problem for everyone in Tijuana.
"At this stage, the only sign that the administration is preparing to treat migrants who are seeking legal asylum is to deploy barbed wire in places that they are not likely to go through, "said Ali Noorani, director of the National Forum for Left-Wing Immigration. "Without the staffing and the necessary facilities in place, the administration will create chaos and distress for customs and border protection officers, migrants and surrounding communities."
Jessica Vaughn, of the Right Immigration Studies Center, also sees a disaster getting ready.
"The legal entry point chosen by the organizers of the caravan will almost certainly be disrupted to the point of closing, either officially or in fact, because the organizers will certainly have lawyers ready and will not accept. number "for an answer," said Vaughn. "This will not please ordinary Mexicans who depend on access to legal crossing points. But the organizers will be more interested in the optics of the challenge. "
In the last caravan in March, organizer Puebla Sin Frontera sent a few hundred tired migrants to the Friendship Park near Tijuana to invite activists from San Diego and Los Angeles to gather in front of the border police. .
Is the border rights group going to do it again to make a statement on US policy, which they see as inhuman, unfair and illegal?
Central American migrants are resting at the Jesus Martinez Stadium in Mexico City on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. Humanitarian aid converged around the Mexico City stadium, where thousands of Central American migrants headed for Mexico on Tuesday. the United States was resting after a trek that took them across three countries in three weeks. (AP Photo / Rodrigo Abd)
Will there be a negative reaction in the United States, giving President Trump the opportunity to effectively close the border, doing more harm than good to migrants?
Suppose that half of the 5,500 migrants in the caravan go to Tijuana. Without housing or shelter, many are likely to cross illegally, although many say that it is not their intention.
"I want to go legally and do it with hard work and everything because you can not get anything just sitting," said Jorge Gomez, 14, from Guatemala.
His father, Amilcar, said he wanted to do things right.
"We want to apply for asylum," he said, "and we want to leave because there is too much violence in our country."
Most of the migrants interviewed by Fox News said they want to enter legally, but experts say some will be frustrated. Some will head east to a mountain crossing near Tecate, Mexico, or further east to the Mohave and Sonora deserts near El Centro and Yuma.
President Trump is considering a policy change to deter this option by refusing asylum applications from those who illegally enter or cross an official entry point.
"If the numbers are in effect, [the Department of Homeland Security] will be challenged logistically and with the processing time, "said Mike Fisher, who led the US Border Patrol from 2010 to 2015.
Central American migrants bound for the United States on a truck that left Cordoba, Mexico.
(AP)
Processing times imposed by the courts make border authorities jostle when migrants submerge a given sector. The maximum allowed is 72 hours in a border patrol detention center – and 21 days in a government shelter for families and children. At this point, officials are supposed to release the migrants, usually with an ankle bracelet.
These delays can mean incomplete background checks, said Ron Coburn, former Deputy Chief of the Border Patrol.
He fears that "many aggravated criminals will end up in the jumble of immigrants to hide their identity."
"The chaos at the border," he said, "will undoubtedly contribute to the ability of some very dangerous individuals to sneak into the United States."
