Brexit: The EU is considering a summit without May

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You know that the Brexit summit you're talking about – the one that Theresa May hopes for this month, where the UK's exit agreement from the EU is finalized?

Rumor has it that even if the summit is still held in November – which is by no means guaranteed, as negotiations are continuing at the Irish border – the Prime Minister can not even be invited.

How can that be, I hear you crying. How does a "Brexit" summit seal the deal and bring together European leaders without the presence of the British Prime Minister?

"Well, why would the EU solve a problem at once, while it is possible to drag it?" A European diplomat told me dryly.

The rationale behind a summit without the UK in Brexit, however, stems from the fact that EU leaders will have to first assimilate many documents.

It will include the withdrawal agreement (the EU-UK divorce agreement), the political declaration on future EU-UK relations and the details of a customs partnership between the EU and the United Kingdom. European Union and the United Kingdom, which negotiators are preparing in a hurry. an insurance policy to be used, to ensure that there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, irrespective of the economic relations established by the EU and the EU. UK after Brexit.

More from Katya: At the edge of a nervous crisis in Brexit?

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And leaders will not have long to look at these politically, legally, and economically important documents if a Brexit summit is to be held this month, for the simple reason that none of these documents has not been completed so far.

Thus, a number of EU countries now want the Brexit summit to be an opportunity for their leaders to ask questions and raise objections to Michel Barnier, EU's chief negotiator for Brexit.

Another summit, later Brexit, would follow with Theresa May, to endorse the deal. The current thinking in Brussels is that this could be associated with the regular summit of EU leaders not being part of Brexit on 12 and 13 December.

More about Brexit and the backstop

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But all this European reverie is for the birds if no agreement is found on the guarantee of the Irish border.

EU and UK negotiators are, once again, engaged in a self-imposed and 24/7 "tunnel" of conversations, with the aim of blocking any noise political and social and to find a solution.

The apparent optimism of the UK government this week as to the conclusion of an agreement – with Theresa May about to convene her cabinet as early as the weekend – is not matched by any EU sources close to the negotiations.

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I've always used the analogy of square ankle and round hole to solve the border puzzle between Brexit and Ireland.

But now, after long, heated and to some extent fruitful negotiations, the ankle has become smaller, just like the hole.

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The EU now accepts the UK proposal that the whole of the UK would remain in a European customs partnership until a close trade relationship between the EU and the EU and the UK after the Brexit was forged, which could make talk of a customs border between the two – affecting the island of Ireland – becomes pointless.

The stumbling blocks are now mostly double – or maybe I should say two and a half times:

1. The EU countries that trade the most with the UK, such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, want to make sure that, if it was used, the hastily established customs partnership would not be a competitive advantage for the United Kingdom. They want the UK to adhere to what is called, in commercial terms, a level playing field. This concerns, for example, the common restrictions on state aid, as well as certain labor regulations and environmental laws. It is also questioned that the EU is trying to secure an agreement on the maintenance of fishing rights in British waters as part of the agreement.
2. British critics of the customs partnership – such as Brexit's secretary Dominic Raab – claim that the UK would need a unilateral exit mechanism to not remain forever tied to the EU's customs regime. which, as you will recall, renders it incapable of concluding independent commercial agreements.

The EU however argues that it would not be an appropriate guarantee to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland if the United Kingdom could abandon the said guarantee – this 39, that is, the fallout plan of the British Customs – at any time.

But the UK then argues that if the EU co-monitored Irish support, Brussels would have the power to keep the UK tied to its customs regime in the foreseeable future. This does not look much like the return to national sovereignty that had been promised to those who had voted to participate in the referendum on the EU.

• 2.5 British government circles do not agree on whether the guarantee of the Irish border should constitute two different customs plans with the EU: one for Northern Ireland, which already has decentralized powers, and one for the rest of the United Kingdom, which would be easier to dissociate.

In summary: the contract is not done yet.

But if and when this happens – with discussions on a British parliamentary vote until 21 December – my European contacts tell me that the EU countries will start work in January 2019 to define a new mandate. for the negotiators in Brussels, who would theoretically start working. on the new trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom after Brexit as of 1 April.

Michel Barnier and his now infamous late trading time warning will no longer be part of the procedure after Brexit, I am told.

The UK will then be a third country, the term used by the EU for non-club members, and trade negotiations will be much less publicized, said Brussels.

Watch this place.